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Thread: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

  1. #171
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    No one wants to look bad, so you are almost forced to try to do what you can to change the perception of the things people see. That's only a surface thing, though - the underlying cause is still there, and until that is acknowledged and corrected by providing jobs for those that want to work, fudgy numbers that no one believes will be what is provided. Human nature....
    No big thing Pol, I will just go back to ignoring the stats because they are not accurate, they are nothing more than one big lie. I just can't see what is so hard to understand if one is unemployed he is unemployed, period. If one has a job, he is working, period. Until the government starts looking at things that way, we will always have a problem as I suppose it is the governments way of making things look rosier than they really are.

    If I were an elected official I would want people to look at the glass as being half filled, not half empty. It helps my political career.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    No big thing Pol, I will just go back to ignoring the stats because they are not accurate, they are nothing more than one big lie. I just can't see what is so hard to understand if one is unemployed he is unemployed, period.
    But you refuse to define what you mean by unemployed. At one point you say it means not working, but then you want to treat retirees and full time students as non-existent.

    Employed is employed and unemployed is unemployed...that's how it is! Unemployed means not working, available to work, and looking for work. How hard is that?

    There is a reason. Someone who is trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us how hard it is to get hired. Someone not trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us absolutely nothing. So why do you want to treat them the same?
    Last edited by pinqy; 10-31-14 at 10:39 AM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  3. #173
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    But you refuse to define what you mean by unemployed. At one point you say it means not working, but then you want to treat retirees and full time students as non-existent.

    Employed is employed and unemployed is unemployed...that's how it is! Unemployed means not working, available to work, and looking for work. How hard is that?

    There is a reason. Someone who is trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us how hard it is to get hired. Someone not trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us absolutely nothing. So why do you want to treat them the same?
    Why do you want to use numbers you know doesn't include all people that would like to have a job?
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    But you refuse to define what you mean by unemployed. At one point you say it means not working, but then you want to treat retirees and full time students as non-existent.

    Employed is employed and unemployed is unemployed...that's how it is! Unemployed means not working, available to work, and looking for work. How hard is that?

    There is a reason. Someone who is trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us how hard it is to get hired. Someone not trying to work and doesn't get hired tells us absolutely nothing. So why do you want to treat them the same?
    Anyone with a bit of common sense knows the unemployed are the unemployed. Common sense tells you not to count retirees as they are retired. Common sense tells you not to count full time students as they are full time students. ETC. ETC.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Why do you want to use numbers you know doesn't include all people that would like to have a job?
    Because what we're trying to measure is actual supply and demand of labor, and how hard it is to get a job. Someone saying they want a job but not doing anything doesn't tell us anything.

    Someone who actively looks for a job....Contact employer directly/interview, Contacted public employment agency, Contacted private employment agency, Contacted friends or relatives, Contacted school/university employment center, Sent out resumes/filled out applications, Checked union/professional registers, Placed or answered ads, or other, such as had an audition or bid on a contract..........did something that could have gotten them a job and did not.

    If someone did nothing that could have gotten them a job, then they could not have gotten a job, no matter how much they say they want one. As far as getting a job goes, someone who says he wants a job but is not trying to work is no more likely to get a job than anyone else not trying to work.

    Those not looking who say they want a job are counted...A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex
    But look...of the 6 million people not looking for work who say they want a job, 3.2 million have done nothing at all about getting a job in the last year (this includes teenagers who've never had a job and never looked for one). Do you think they're really a good indicator of how easy or difficult it is to actually get a job? Do you even think it likely they'll start to look soon?

    And further...of those who did look in the last year but not the last month, 593,000 could not have accepted a job if offered on a plate. What do they tell us about the job market?

    That's what it boils down to...the job market. People not participating in it can't tell us anything about its condition.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  6. #176
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Anyone with a bit of common sense knows the unemployed are the unemployed. Common sense tells you not to count retirees as they are retired. Common sense tells you not to count full time students as they are full time students. ETC. ETC.
    You can't use a term to define itself. And I don't know what your "etc"s are. You may have some definition of "unemployed" in your head, but the common, most used definition in economics is willing, available, and doing something about work.

    There are plenty of retirees and full time students looking for part time jobs.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Because what we're trying to measure is actual supply and demand of labor, and how hard it is to get a job. Someone saying they want a job but not doing anything doesn't tell us anything.

    Someone who actively looks for a job....Contact employer directly/interview, Contacted public employment agency, Contacted private employment agency, Contacted friends or relatives, Contacted school/university employment center, Sent out resumes/filled out applications, Checked union/professional registers, Placed or answered ads, or other, such as had an audition or bid on a contract..........did something that could have gotten them a job and did not.

    If someone did nothing that could have gotten them a job, then they could not have gotten a job, no matter how much they say they want one. As far as getting a job goes, someone who says he wants a job but is not trying to work is no more likely to get a job than anyone else not trying to work.

    Those not looking who say they want a job are counted...A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex
    But look...of the 6 million people not looking for work who say they want a job, 3.2 million have done nothing at all about getting a job in the last year (this includes teenagers who've never had a job and never looked for one). Do you think they're really a good indicator of how easy or difficult it is to actually get a job? Do you even think it likely they'll start to look soon?

    And further...of those who did look in the last year but not the last month, 593,000 could not have accepted a job if offered on a plate. What do they tell us about the job market?

    That's what it boils down to...the job market. People not participating in it can't tell us anything about its condition.
    Seems to me, that when you try to break it down so far to a level where there are categories, sub categories, and so on, that you lose the true numbers. I understand that not all unemployed, able bodied people are equal, but the parsing of the numbers is meant to lie to us, that's my opinion.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    So, one change in BLS data that did occur under Obama:
    Prior to 2011, when respondents were asked how long they had been looking for work, any answer over 2 years was simply recorded as "2 years," basically making it "2 or more years."
    But in 2011, that was changed so that the actual number of weeks was recorded, up to 5 years. Now, this had no change on the UE rate or Labor Force or anything like that. It didn't even change "media number of weeks unemployed." But it did change the average number of weeks unemployed, making it a lot worse.

    So...we have one change which made things look worse.
    Talk to me about all the changes that made things look better?
    Greetings, Pinqy.

    It used to be based on three simple common sense points: You have no job now; you are available for work now; and you have actively looked for work in the past four weeks.

    The method for calculating unemployment has changed in several ways. Simply losing your job doesn't mean you're unemployed today, although it sure as H*** feels like it when you don't have a paycheck coming in so you can pay your bills. However, if you stop actively looking for work, you are longer considered unemployed. I don't know what those discouraged people are called today, but they don't have a job, so they are unemployed by most people's definition.

    On the other hand, if you are working part-time at a low-paying job because that's all that is available, you are considered employed. You could have been an engineer but now you are working at WalMart sweeping floors, but that's how it's calculated, and it is an unfair double standard!

    Then you have what is called the "labor participation rate," which measures the total labor force available versus those actually working doing some kind of job, no matter how menial or part time. So if you have 10 unemployed, but five have just stopped looking for work because there are no jobs available, the unemployment rate will drop because those five are no longer considered unemployed. : It doesn't change the fact that they still don't have a job, but it makes the unemployment rate look better.

    That's the problem with the way it's currently calculated. If the unemployment rate falls due to people giving up looking, rather than job creation, it shows that the labor market is not expanding, but either shrinking or not expanding enough to accommodate new workers joining the labor force.

    Obama told us for years that he was focusing on job creation "like a laser," but so far only part time or low-paying jobs are available for the most part, and our standard of living is dropping for an awful lot of people. Companies need to make a profit or they either close or move to more business-friendly countries. When companies like GM build a new plant in Mexico instead of here, that pits Wall Street and the need to satisfy shareholders against the workers on Main Street USA who used to do those jobs- the workers lose every time! I have repeatedly suggested that thousands of new jobs could be created if we just upgraded our grid which is badly needed, as an example, and that would be a double good...people go back to work and we bring our grid into the 21st century where we all live now. Just my opinion.....

  9. #179
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Seems to me, that when you try to break it down so far to a level where there are categories, sub categories, and so on, that you lose the true numbers.
    You don't really lose the true numbers, you get a more complete (and more useful) description of what's actually happening.

    For example, let's say you were in charge of a business that had salesman. Would you be content with just knowing how much money the salesman as a group made you (let's say $100, for an easy number)? Or would you want to know that salesman A made $60, salesman B made $30 and salesman C-E combined only made $10? Furthermore, would you not want to know that salesman A made his $60 by selling 50 units of product A, 30 units of product B and 5 units of products C-E?

    Of course you would. Having more detailed information allows for a more exact picture of what is actually happening. If I just said "well, I made $100", then it would hide the fact I had 3 salesmen who were not really doing anything and it would hide the fact I spending money on products C-E which don't sell.

    Simple numbers may be easy for those who don't really care but having more detailed information is just more useful and gives a much better picture of what is actually happening.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Seems to me, that when you try to break it down so far to a level where there are categories, sub categories, and so on, that you lose the true numbers. I understand that not all unemployed, able bodied people are equal, but the parsing of the numbers is meant to lie to us, that's my opinion.
    Why do you think it's meant to lie? It's meant to give an accurate picture of the labor market conditions. The subcategories of Not in the Labor Force give a clearer picture of who is likely to start looking for work.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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