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Thread: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    How is that possible?
    How is what possible?
    Unemployment is not proof
    Not proof of what?
    when people that stop looking are not counted and that is why the rate falls not because people get jobs
    The UE rate is unemployed/(employed plus unemployed) so either scenario would cause the rate to go down.

    not sure of your point, here.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    How is what possible?

    Not proof of what?

    The UE rate is unemployed/(employed plus unemployed) so either scenario would cause the rate to go down.

    not sure of your point, here.
    Unemplyment is not proof of the real unemployment since it does not include those that gave up looking. I showed a link that showed labor participation during bush was higher so how can their be mor working now? Population has not increased that much in 5 years

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    You are using Obama talking points that are lies and deceptions.
    I'm using statistics. You do understand what those are, correct?
    You are a partisan hack trying to act like you are intelligent
    I'm a partisan hack by using official statistics and criticizing the party to whom you say I'm loyal?

    You make absolutely no sense. I'm sorry if you have trouble understanding things like math and statistics, but using facts/stats does not make someone a partisan hack. Ironically, criticizing someone for using statistics put out by a government agency by calling the agency untrustworthy while simultaneously using stats from the SAME government agency to call someone a hack DOES make a person partisan hack. In other words (don't worry, I'll break it down in simpler terms for you) cherry picking which numbers one believes are credible (despite coming from the same source) based solely upon whether they support your political party, makes one a partisan hack.
    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Unemplyment is not proof of the real unemployment since it does not include those that gave up looking.
    Those who are discouraged has dropped by nearly half in the last 4 years.

    http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab16.htm
    Last edited by Slyfox696; 10-29-14 at 09:39 AM.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Unemplyment is not proof of the real unemployment since it does not include those that gave up looking.
    Huh? Unemployed has always been defined as someone not working but looking for work. Retirees, full time students, stay home spouses, disabled, etc have never been considered unemployed because they're not trying to work. You can't just redefine what unemployed means and declare it the "real" definition.


    I showed a link that showed labor participation during bush was higher so how can their be mor working now?
    Population has not increased that much in 5 years
    But it's gone up by a larger percent than employment has and a larger percent than the labor force has. Shall we do the math?
    January 2009:
    Population= 234,739,000
    Employed + Unemployed = Labor Force = 154,210,000
    Labor Force/Population = Labor Force Participation = 65.7%
    Employed= 142,152,000
    Employed/Population = Employment-Population ratio = 60.6%
    Unemployed= 12,058,000
    Unemployed/Labor Force = Unemployment rate = 7.8%
    Not in the Labor Force = 80,529,000

    September 2014:
    Population= 248,446,000
    Employed + Unemployed = Labor Force = 155,862,000
    Labor Force/Population = Labor Force Participation = 62.7%
    Employed= 146,600,000
    Employed/Population = Employment-Population ratio = 59%
    Unemployed= 9,262,000
    Unemployed/Labor Force = Unemployment rate = 5.9%
    Not in the Labor Force = 92,584,000

    So Population has gone up 5.8%. Employment has gone up 3.1% Unemployment has dropped 23.2% and the labor force has gone up 1.1%
    So, since population has gone up more than the labor force and employment, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio have both dropped.
    And because unemployment has dropped and the labor force has gone up, then the UE rate has gone down.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    I forgot to give my source: Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age using seasonally adjusted data for everything except population.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    I'm using statistics. You do understand what those are, correct?
    I'm a partisan hack by using official statistics and criticizing the party to whom you say I'm loyal?

    You make absolutely no sense. I'm sorry if you have trouble understanding things like math and statistics, but using facts/stats does not make someone a partisan hack. Ironically, criticizing someone for using statistics put out by a government agency by calling the agency untrustworthy while simultaneously using stats from the SAME government agency to call someone a hack DOES make a person partisan hack. In other words (don't worry, I'll break it down in simpler terms for you) cherry picking which numbers one believes are credible (despite coming from the same source) based solely upon whether they support your political party, makes one a partisan hack.
    Those who are discouraged has dropped by nearly half in the last 4 years.

    Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
    You are using democrat talking points

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Huh? Unemployed has always been defined as someone not working but looking for work. Retirees, full time students, stay home spouses, disabled, etc have never been considered unemployed because they're not trying to work. You can't just redefine what unemployed means and declare it the "real" definition.



    But it's gone up by a larger percent than employment has and a larger percent than the labor force has. Shall we do the math?
    January 2009:
    Population= 234,739,000
    Employed + Unemployed = Labor Force = 154,210,000
    Labor Force/Population = Labor Force Participation = 65.7%
    Employed= 142,152,000
    Employed/Population = Employment-Population ratio = 60.6%
    Unemployed= 12,058,000
    Unemployed/Labor Force = Unemployment rate = 7.8%
    Not in the Labor Force = 80,529,000

    September 2014:
    Population= 248,446,000
    Employed + Unemployed = Labor Force = 155,862,000
    Labor Force/Population = Labor Force Participation = 62.7%
    Employed= 146,600,000
    Employed/Population = Employment-Population ratio = 59%
    Unemployed= 9,262,000
    Unemployed/Labor Force = Unemployment rate = 5.9%
    Not in the Labor Force = 92,584,000

    So Population has gone up 5.8%. Employment has gone up 3.1% Unemployment has dropped 23.2% and the labor force has gone up 1.1%
    So, since population has gone up more than the labor force and employment, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio have both dropped.
    And because unemployment has dropped and the labor force has gone up, then the UE rate has gone down.
    Unemployment has gone down because people are no longer looking not because they got jobs

    Big Downside to April Jobs Report | Fox Business

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Unemployment has gone down because people are no longer looking not because they got jobs

    Big Downside to April Jobs Report | Fox Business
    Sort of. People leave the labor force for many many reasons: family issues, going to school, retirement, transportation issues, injury/illness/pregnancy, stay home with kids, etc.
    So yes, people who stop looking will cause unemployed to go down faster than the overall labor force, but that doesn't, by itself, mean anything bad. The UE rate is just supposed to measure the unused supply of labor. People not trying to work are not a supply of labor.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    You are using democrat talking points
    You're not even trying anymore to support your ridiculous claims.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Sort of. People leave the labor force for many many reasons: family issues, going to school, retirement, transportation issues, injury/illness/pregnancy, stay home with kids, etc.
    So yes, people who stop looking will cause unemployed to go down faster than the overall labor force, but that doesn't, by itself, mean anything bad. The UE rate is just supposed to measure the unused supply of labor. People not trying to work are not a supply of labor.
    That is crap. The reason is there are no jobs that you can support a family on. When 70% of the jobs created are part time that does not help

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