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Thread: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Maryland is a safe Democratic state, one of the bluest. No big deal. As for the senate, it is far from a done deal. The Republicans could very easily lose Kansas and Georgia and their expected pickup in North Carolina is not going to happen. The odds are slightly in the GOP's favor, but one miss step could have it all come tumbling down. Remember Aiken and Mourdock from 2012, they turned sure Republicans gains into loses.

    As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over until its over."
    They say it is an election about nothing. If the republicans win the senate we will still have gridlock with O in the white house. If the democrats win it we will have gridlock without needing O for anything. Either way we get gridlock for the benefit of everyone. We all win either way.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Maryland is a safe Democratic state, one of the bluest. No big deal
    Well, kind of a big deal. Which is likely why the Presidsent in there.

    The Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun polls on the matter both had it at a single digit race recently. That's concerning for, as you say, one of the bluest of the blue states. Loosing a Governorship in a state like that would likely have messaging ramifications, especially amongst the base.

    With Marylands proximity to DC it's not hard for the President to try and stop in and see if he can give it a bit of a boost, and it makes sense they'd do that. It's unlikely that the Democrats fail to win the Governor race...but single digit differences in the polls at least made it mildly worrisome.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    They say it is an election about nothing. If the republicans win the senate we will still have gridlock with O in the white house. If the democrats win it we will have gridlock without needing O for anything. Either way we get gridlock for the benefit of everyone. We all win either way.
    That is true. But in a way I think it might be a good thing for the Republicans to win the senate. That way the GOP can pass all the bills they want, the president can veto all the bills he wants. But each party ideology will be in the forefront for all to see. The stark differences will be in plain sight and come 2016, let the voters decide.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Well, kind of a big deal. Which is likely why the Presidsent in there.

    The Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun polls on the matter both had it at a single digit race recently. That's concerning for, as you say, one of the bluest of the blue states. Loosing a Governorship in a state like that would likely have messaging ramifications, especially amongst the base.

    With Marylands proximity to DC it's not hard for the President to try and stop in and see if he can give it a bit of a boost, and it makes sense they'd do that. It's unlikely that the Democrats fail to win the Governor race...but single digit differences in the polls at least made it mildly worrisome.
    Here's what RCP has when it averaged the three October polls for the Maryland Governors race:

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Maryland Governor - Hogan vs. Brown

    An 11 point lead for Brown. But Governors are a bit different from Senators. A lot of people will vote or choose their senator by their outlook on the president. Senators are federal. Governors are local and local issues tend to take precedence over national ones.

    Now speaking of bluest of blue states, look at Massachusetts Governor's race - Baker vs. Coakley

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Coakley

    Now it is in Massachusetts Obama ought to be campaigning in.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Here's what RCP has when it averaged the three October polls for the Maryland Governors race:
    I understand the RCP and looked at it. Note that I pointed out the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun polls, both which are significantly different then the CBS poll. Living in the area, the general thought process would be giving greater credance to the WaPo/Sun polls than the CBS one. And given those two are far closer, while the CBS one is wildly larger, I'd be apt to say that's the more accurate number to look at.

    That's the one problem with the RCP average at times. If you have a few polls all showing relatively similar numbers and then one CRAZY outlier, suddenly the average looks a lot higher than it likely really is.

    I agree with you a bit regarding Massachusetts, though again I think logistically it's far easier for him to quickly make some comments in Maryland as opposed to massachusetts

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    I understand the RCP and looked at it. Note that I pointed out the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun polls, both which are significantly different then the CBS poll. Living in the area, the general thought process would be giving greater credance to the WaPo/Sun polls than the CBS one. And given those two are far closer, while the CBS one is wildly larger, I'd be apt to say that's the more accurate number to look at.

    That's the one problem with the RCP average at times. If you have a few polls all showing relatively similar numbers and then one CRAZY outlier, suddenly the average looks a lot higher than it likely really is.

    I agree with you a bit regarding Massachusetts, though again I think logistically it's far easier for him to quickly make some comments in Maryland as opposed to massachusetts
    Yeah it is, just a hop, skip and a jump. But from what I read he left Maryland and went to Illinois to campaign for Quinn. CBS is rated a B pollster which tilts slightly to the Democrats, about a point according to Nate Silver and his 538 column. The Washington post is a B minus polling firm which also tilts towards the Democrats. He has nothing on the Baltimore Sun. Just in case you interested here is the URL.

    FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

    But I like the averages of RCP just for the reason you gave. One skewed poll is not all that skewed when averaged together. A lot of folks will put way too much stock in one poll. I like to look for trends. Now going from 17 to 9 to 7 is a trend to be watched. But with only three polls the question is how much stock to put into that trend. Then one must also consider the blueness of Maryland and its voting history.

    But what I see is a positive for the Republican, but there is really not enough undecideds, 9% according to the Baltimore Sun Poll to overcome a 7 point deficit. In my opinion anyway. Also in the polls Brown is at 51, 47 and 49. One is over 50% and the other two close enough. There will have to be quite a lot of voters who are saying they are going to vote for Brown switch their vote at the last minute if Hogan is to win.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Maryland is a safe Democratic state, one of the bluest. No big deal. As for the senate, it is far from a done deal. The Republicans could very easily lose Kansas and Georgia and their expected pickup in North Carolina is not going to happen. The odds are slightly in the GOP's favor, but one miss step could have it all come tumbling down. Remember Aiken and Mourdock from 2012, they turned sure Republicans gains into loses.

    As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over until its over."
    True but theres another thing going on here-a black POTUS being jeered by black crowds in a heavily democrat state. I think thats the real news.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    True but theres another thing going on here-a black POTUS being jeered by black crowds in a heavily democrat state. I think thats the real news.
    He wasn't "jeered by black crowds." There was ONE heckler. ONE. As per your own source.
    Freedom of speech is not freedom from criticism.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    True but theres another thing going on here-a black POTUS being jeered by black crowds in a heavily democrat state. I think thats the real news.
    I heard some of the spin the Democrats put on it. Perhaps they do not think Obama has done enough.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, people leave early

    Quote Originally Posted by Kobie View Post
    He wasn't "jeered by black crowds." There was ONE heckler. ONE. As per your own source.
    Kobie-Obama was heckled at the worst possible place-and in looking at the data about how blacks have done under Obama it was deserved, dont you agree?

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