SECOND Dallas Hospital Worker Tests Positive for Ebola

Fenton · Oct 28, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
So, let's get this straight. You google stuff. I have professional training in it. Who should we believe? Tough question, let me think... mmm.... I'll go with me.

Yes, virus can mutate. The flu virus for example has different strains every year as it mutates. It doesn't change the way it is transmitted, though. Again, get this: it is highly unlikely that the Ebola virus will become airborne. Impossible? No. Likely? Not at all.

The virus doesn't "consider" anything. It doesn't think (you are too funny!). What changes is the epidemiology of transmission, making an epidemic or a minor outbreak behave radically differently in a Third World versus a First World country. You saying it doesn't matter is a *collossal* blunder, and for a person who makes this blunder to be putting down my training and knowledge of the topic is rather hilarious.

I don't expect you to believe me because it doesn't fit your political agenda. Once this situation blows over and the United States does not get an Ebola African-like epidemic (it won't) then maybe you'll look back and realize that your concerns are foolish in epidemiological terms. They aren't foolish in political terms, though, since they are likely to get voters to refrain from voting for the candidates you don't want to see elected, in a week. In this sense, do run around yelling that the sky is falling because yes, it does favor your side and yes, it's reasonable (although irresponsible) to do it - just, don't pretend it is realistic, or else *you* look foolish.

Meanwhile the second nurse is free from the virus so the only two cases of US transmission are over and no general public outbreak has happened which should give you pause (like I said, in developed country with decent medical facilities and isolation regulations, Ebola has a really hard time spreading like wild fire as it does in Africa).

Unfortunately the United States is becoming an anti-Science country. Too bad. People pay attention to bad pop science - "Oh my God, the virus will become airborne, we're doomed" - and ignore good science - the one that indicates that this virus has been around for a while and has not become airborne, and likely won't.

No, I don't need any more training, thank you. I hold two doctoral degrees, it's more than enough training.

Lol !!

Two doctoral degrees.......

You claimed that stopping the distribution of Visa's to people from the Ebola ravaged area's of West wouldn't work because our Southern border isn't being protected.

Ridiculous.

j-mac · Oct 28, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
So, let's get this straight. You google stuff. I have professional training in it. Who should we believe? Tough question, let me think... mmm.... I'll go with me.

Yes, virus can mutate. The flu virus for example has different strains every year as it mutates. It doesn't change the way it is transmitted, though. Again, get this: it is highly unlikely that the Ebola virus will become airborne. Impossible? No. Likely? Not at all.

The virus doesn't "consider" anything. It doesn't think (you are too funny!). What changes is the epidemiology of transmission, making an epidemic or a minor outbreak behave radically differently in a Third World versus a First World country. You saying it doesn't matter is a *collossal* blunder, and for a person who makes this blunder to be putting down my training and knowledge of the topic is rather hilarious.

I don't expect you to believe me because it doesn't fit your political agenda. Once this situation blows over and the United States does not get an Ebola African-like epidemic (it won't) then maybe you'll look back and realize that your concerns are foolish in epidemiological terms. They aren't foolish in political terms, though, since they are likely to get voters to refrain from voting for the candidates you don't want to see elected, in a week. In this sense, do run around yelling that the sky is falling because yes, it does favor your side and yes, it's reasonable (although irresponsible) to do it - just, don't pretend it is realistic, or else *you* look foolish.

Meanwhile the second nurse is free from the virus so the only two cases of US transmission are over and no general public outbreak has happened which should give you pause (like I said, in developed country with decent medical facilities and isolation regulations, Ebola has a really hard time spreading like wild fire as it does in Africa).

Unfortunately the United States is becoming an anti-Science country. Too bad. People pay attention to bad pop science - "Oh my God, the virus will become airborne, we're doomed" - and ignore good science - the one that indicates that this virus has been around for a while and has not become airborne, and likely won't.

No, I don't need any more training, thank you. I hold two doctoral degrees, it's more than enough training.

Ok, then tell me why it is that every time you set those arrogant fingers to your keyboard, another report comrs to us of yet another person with symptoms? Why is it that you tell me to ignore the medical pros coming home and ignoring protocol then having to be rushed to the hospital with a positive? And why is it that troops coming back are quarantined in Italy and met on the tarmac by personal in full space suits instead of just flying home?

But you are right in one thing. And that is that I don't for a second buy that you are a doctor with two degrees, largely for a couple of reasons...

1. Your whole bent in talking about this is from a political stance, and as such you seek the usual progressive method of trying to demean, and shut down debate rather than discuss it like a professional.

2. If you were a doc with these degrees I doubt that you'd be wasting your timw on a political message board. I could be wrong abput that one though.

After all, I've always been honest about who I am, a truck driver that doesn't know it all, but would like to think I have common sense.

Good day (doc?)

Porchev · Oct 30, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
See your double standard. You made assumptions about my knowledge of virology or lack thereof, and then you say this:

Well, you also don't know me. I assure you, I know a lot more about virology than you assume. Since I don't believe in pulling rank and talking about personal expertise in the Internet because nothing can be proven (this is an anonymous site and I certainly prefer to keep my private information, well, private), I won't say more; but I will say this: you are *completely* wrong when you assume I don't know my virology.

You are wrong. Viruses can be clustered in classes and within the classes they do behave similarly. I repeat, Ebola is NOT an airborne virus, and significant chances that it will become one only exist in the wild dreams of non-serious scientists who want publicity. Ebola is not a new phenomenon. It's been around, and it is not airborne. Period.

I'm only slightly liberal. In this Ebola "crisis" however I can clearly see what the Right is doing, and it isn't pretty.

----------

Edit: Oh, and I forgot:

You said:

Oh wow. And *I'm* the one who doesn't know virology and epidemiology, in your opinion.

Try this:

An index case happens in West Africa. It rapidly spreads to family members. People don't use hospitals. No resources exist to isolate people, who live in dire sanitary conditions. People die like flies. The dead are touched extensively by family members in their rituals. Many more people contract it. The disease spreads like wild fire. Ignorant masses break into hospitals and take the patients out of hospitals, think the infection is a joke. Meanwhile more than half the health care providers die of the disease. Soon thousands of cases develop and it's projected that by January the number of new cases will reach 10,000 per week. Mortality is at 70%.

The virus makes its entrance in America. One case infects two nurses out of the 170 people who cared for the patient. The two nurses are treated with advanced experimental medications and the serum of recovered patients. In a matter of days the virus is gone from their bodies and they recover. ALL other Americans similarly treated survive (a death rate of 0% as compared to 70% in Africa). No general public spread is seen.

OK... according to you there is no epidemiological difference between transmission rates and mortality in the first world and third world, huh? :roll:

And then... you question *my* knowledge of these matters.

Good one. :lamo

Tell me another good joke, please.

So what do you think of this interesting news?:

"CDC admits droplets from a sneeze could spread Ebola"
CDC admits droplets from a sneeze could spread Ebola | New York Post

GreatNews2night · Nov 5, 2014

j-mac said:
Ok, then tell me why it is that every time you set those arrogant fingers to your keyboard, another report comrs to us of yet another person with symptoms? Why is it that you tell me to ignore the medical pros coming home and ignoring protocol then having to be rushed to the hospital with a positive? And why is it that troops coming back are quarantined in Italy and met on the tarmac by personal in full space suits instead of just flying home?

But you are right in one thing. And that is that I don't for a second buy that you are a doctor with two degrees, largely for a couple of reasons...

1. Your whole bent in talking about this is from a political stance, and as such you seek the usual progressive method of trying to demean, and shut down debate rather than discuss it like a professional.

2. If you were a doc with these degrees I doubt that you'd be wasting your timw on a political message board. I could be wrong abput that one though.

After all, I've always been honest about who I am, a truck driver that doesn't know it all, but would like to think I have common sense.

Good day (doc?)

I couldn't care less if you believe in my degrees or not. Be my guest, pretend it's not true. I won't lose any sleep over it.
Yes, I don't have a lot of free time, which doesn't mean I don't have any and can't be online from time to time. What is your logic here? That's the most ridiculous argument I've ever heard. I'm not a frequent poster here. What I do for a living doesn't mean I work 100% of the time and I'm never online. LOL.
Of course I'm talking about it from a political viewpoint. Hint: look at the name of this website. For your information, it is Debate POLITICS, not Virology Today.
About all your points in your first paragraph, they are explained by panicky attitudes that don't match science. Sure, isolation is necessary, monitoring and quarantine of a few people who did come in contact with the virus are necessary. Saying that the virus will become airborne and spread in America like wild fire is unlikely and inaccurate. Period.

GreatNews2night · Nov 5, 2014

Porchev said:
So what do you think of this interesting news?:

"CDC admits droplets from a sneeze could spread Ebola"
CDC admits droplets from a sneeze could spread Ebola | New York Post

What I think of it? I don't just think, I know that when someone is highly contagious in the acute phase, all bodily fluids are contagious, which is not the same as the definition of an airborne virus. If you only knew more about the subject and didn't try to learn about it from tabloids like the New York Post, maybe you'd know the difference.

As for someone who called me arrogant: it is hard not to be when one participates in a debate in which there is widespread gross ignorance like we're seeing in this thread. I'm just trying to set some basic facts straight, and when someone put me down for supposedly not knowing what I'm talking about, I just defended myself confirming that I do have professional training in this area. You don't want to believe, cool. Put me on Ignore, I couldn't care less. Have you all a good day.

GreatNews2night · Nov 5, 2014

Fenton said:
Lol !!

Two doctoral degrees.......

You claimed that stopping the distribution of Visa's to people from the Ebola ravaged area's of West wouldn't work because our Southern border isn't being protected.

Ridiculous.

When you call someone ridiculous, please try to at least refrain from calling the plural of visa, visa's, and the plural of area, area's.
I was merely mentioning an example of how visas typically do not stop many from coming to our country. For your information, we already have visa requirements for citizens of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Just like other countries in Africa have said, a blanket prohibition of visas merely make people find ways around it, in which case they can't be traced and monitored, while legal visitants can.

GreatNews2night · Dec 7, 2014

LOL, more than 30 days have passed, way beyond the 21-day incubation period, and by now assuming that my opponents above who tried to ridicule my (correct) position were right, then probably the virus went airborne and 3,000,000 Americans have contracted Ebola and half of them have died, right?
Oh wait: the facts, those annoying things that get in the way of conspiracy theorists and tend to disprove "the-sky-is-falling" idiots, are rather showing that the virus is still not airborne, and the number of infected Americans is precisely... ZERO!
Of course, all the vociferous folks who were yelling at me have been strangely silent...
Too funny. I couldn't make this up, if I wanted to.
So, Fenton, Porchev, j-mac and all, where is the big epidemic you had been predicting?
Nowhere to be seen? Yeah, I thought so. :lamo

Misterveritis · Dec 7, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
LOL, more than 30 days have passed, way beyond the 21-day incubation period, and by now assuming that my opponents above who tried to ridicule my (correct) position were right, then probably the virus went airborne and 3,000,000 Americans have contracted Ebola and half of them have died, right?
Oh wait: the facts, those annoying things that get in the way of conspiracy theorists and tend to disprove "the-sky-is-falling" idiots, are rather showing that the virus is still not airborne, and the number of infected Americans is precisely... ZERO!
Of course, all the vociferous folks who were yelling at me have been strangely silent...
Too funny. I couldn't make this up, if I wanted to.
So, Fenton, Porchev, j-mac and all, where is the big epidemic you had been predicting?
Nowhere to be seen? Yeah, I thought so. :lamo

We continue to import 100-150 more potential carriers every day. We still have a brigade of soldiers in Ebola country wasting their time. Nothing has changed has it?

We have been silent because there has been no news.

GreatNews2night · Dec 9, 2014

Misterveritis said:
We continue to import 100-150 more potential carriers every day. We still have a brigade of soldiers in Ebola country wasting their time. Nothing has changed has it?

And like I said no outbreak happened in the United States, because Ebola has a modality of transmission that makes of it a disease of Third World countries, unlikely to spread in a developed country like the USA. So, see? All these 100-150 people enter every day, and we have ZERO Americans infected. Get it?

We have been silent because there has been no news.

LOL, too funny! There has been no news BECAUSE there has been no American outbreak, like I've been saying! It proves *my* point.

Face it: you guys cried out loud that the sky was falling, and it worked for you - you got more votes in the mid-term elections. Now that the elections are over and no outbreak has materialized in the US, there is no more point in talking about it, for you. That's what it is. All the previous talk was political and not scientific, because all the serious scientist were saying (correctly) that the risk for the US population was miniscule.

By the way, there is news. I just read yesterday that 2,000 people were screened for Ebola as arrivals from West Africa. You know how many cases were found? ZERO!!!

Much ado about nothing.

Misterveritis · Dec 10, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
And like I said no outbreak happened in the United States, because Ebola has a modality of transmission that makes of it a disease of Third World countries, unlikely to spread in a developed country like the USA. So, see? All these 100-150 people enter every day, and we have ZERO Americans infected. Get it?

LOL, too funny! There has been no news BECAUSE there has been no American outbreak, like I've been saying! It proves *my* point.

Face it: you guys cried out loud that the sky was falling, and it worked for you - you got more votes in the mid-term elections. Now that the elections are over and no outbreak has materialized in the US, there is no more point in talking about it, for you. That's what it is. All the previous talk was political and not scientific, because all the serious scientist were saying (correctly) that the risk for the US population was miniscule.

By the way, there is news. I just read yesterday that 2,000 people were screened for Ebola as arrivals from West Africa. You know how many cases were found? ZERO!!!

Much ado about nothing.

Maybe. Maybe not. Do you believe this story is over? Or is it in remission?

GreatNews2night · Dec 11, 2014

Misterveritis said:
Maybe. Maybe not. Do you believe this story is over? Or is it in remission?

I believe that new cases might pop up here and there, but there will not be an outbreak among the American general population, simply because the modality of transmission for Ebola relies heavily on ignorant practices and lack of basic sanitation measures and medical facilities which is the case in Third World countries but not the case in developed countries.

Question: how many serious/highly dangerous (from the standpoint of public health) Ebola outbreaks have happened in Third World countries so far? Many. Question: how many serious/highly dangerous (from the standpoint of public health) Ebola outbreaks have happened in developed countries so far? ZERO. This should teach you something. This is a fact. This is what all the scientific evidence indicates: that Ebola is a disease that spreads well in dire sanitation conditions but doesn't spread well in places that are able to implement efficient isolation measures, exactly because IT IS NOT AIRBORNE!

I mean, if we were to justify shutting down visas and closing the borders because of a disease that has had ZERO spread in the American population and has killed ZERO Americans in the general population, then why in the hell don't we close the borders and shut down visas to ALL travelers coming from Asia which is how the flu comes here every year and kills 30,000 Americans every year?

Don't you see the discrepancy there? Nobody ever worries about the flu and nobody comes up with a charged political discourse bashing the president because of the flu in spite of it claiming 30,000 American lives every year (not that we would be able to stop it by shutting down visas, etc.), and then all hell breaks lose (right before the mid-term elections, mind you) about a disease that has infected ZERO Americans in the general population and has killed ZERO Americans???

So, two nurses who didn't follow protocol while directly caring for an individual who got infected elsewhere (mind you, only 2 out of 170 other caretakers), got infected and recovered (ever since, protocols have tightened up and it is unlikely that this will happen again). Some of our doctors who went there to help got infected and recovered. NOBODY in the general population got infected (in spite of all the hysteria about one of the nurses flying from Ohio to Texas and one of the doctors going bowling) and NO American has died of this disease.

What in the hell are you guys so worried about? Do worry about the flu, buddy. Get your flu shot (which unfortunately this year doesn't match the strains so well but will still give partial protection), get on Tamiflu right away if you contract it, and stop worrying about freaking Ebola which is not a significant threat to our public health. Rely on science more than on politics in matters of disease, and you'll be better off.

eohrnberger · Dec 11, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
LOL, more than 30 days have passed, way beyond the 21-day incubation period, and by now assuming that my opponents above who tried to ridicule my (correct) position were right, then probably the virus went airborne and 3,000,000 Americans have contracted Ebola and half of them have died, right?
Oh wait: the facts, those annoying things that get in the way of conspiracy theorists and tend to disprove "the-sky-is-falling" idiots, are rather showing that the virus is still not airborne, and the number of infected Americans is precisely... ZERO!
Of course, all the vociferous folks who were yelling at me have been strangely silent...
Too funny. I couldn't make this up, if I wanted to.
So, Fenton, Porchev, j-mac and all, where is the big epidemic you had been predicting?
Nowhere to be seen? Yeah, I thought so. :lamo

Well thanks goodness for that, that nothing's happened.

While I never bought into the hysteria, I think it was a legitimate concern that Ebola would escape into the general population, and that infected travalers from Ebola infested areas would be the most logical viral vector.

Further, the possibility of Ebola mutating into an airborne variant that still maintained it's virulence and mortality rate was low, but never was zero.

All in all, pretty glad it turn out the way it did, and have to tip my hat to the medical professionals at the hospitals in question and the CDC for performing on balance very well.

GreatNews2night · Dec 11, 2014

eohrnberger said:
Well thanks goodness for that, that nothing's happened.

While I never bought into the hysteria, I think it was a legitimate concern that Ebola would escape into the general population, and that infected travalers from Ebola infested areas would be the most logical viral vector.

Further, the possibility of Ebola mutating into an airborne variant that still maintained it's virulence and mortality rate was low, but never was zero.

All in all, pretty glad it turn out the way it did, and have to tip my hat to the medical professionals at the hospitals in question and the CDC for performing on balance very well.

Good, this was a well-measured post, as opposed to the general hysteria I've seen, with some posters even saying "it will spread in America like wildfire" and "let's close the borders, or else we're all doomed."

Now, about the virus becoming airborne, I hope you and others realize that this virus has been around since 1976 - that's 38 years - and has not mutated into an airborne form. Is the risk zero? No. But it is miniscule and rather unlikely.

Yes, the concerns you quote are justified, as long as they remain on the level of concerns that need to be addressed (and were) as opposed to widespread panic and blame.

Accusations that the president and the CDC were grossly incompetent and that we'd all die of this disease have pretty much proven to be GROSSLY EXAGGERATED, wouldn't you agree? Well, they served their purpose - the Democrats fared even worse in the mid-terms - but now it's way time to put these overblown concerns to rest, and just keep practicing good public health and good isolation techniques in case the rare case pops up here and there in America.

eohrnberger · Dec 11, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
Good, this was a well-measured post, as opposed to the general hysteria I've seen, with some posters even saying "it will spread in America like wildfire" and "let's close the borders, or else we're all doomed."

Check back, I believe I posted pretty much the same back then. However, a travel ban from Ebola infected areas, or a forced 21 day isolation prior to permission to enter the US would have been effective counter measures. Might have been as close as one more infected traveler in the US from exactly that.

GreatNews2night said:
Now, about the virus becoming airborne, I hope you and others realize that this virus has been around since 1976 - that's 38 years - and has not mutated into an airborne form. Is the risk zero? No. But it is miniscule and rather unlikely.

Mutation frequency goes up with the number of infected, as each infection represents it's own opportunity for the virus to mutate. As large as the population of the infected was (largest in history right?), the better the chances that a spontaneous mutation could occur.

GreatNews2night said:
Yes, the concerns you quote are justified, as long as they remain on the level of concerns that need to be addressed (and were) as opposed to widespread panic and blame.

Agreed.

GreatNews2night said:
Accusations that the president and the CDC were grossly incompetent and that we'd all die of this disease have pretty much proven to be GROSSLY EXAGGERATED, wouldn't you agree? Well, they served their purpose - the Democrats fared even worse in the mid-terms - but now it's way time to put these overblown concerns to rest, and just keep practicing good public health and good isolation techniques in case the rare case pops up here and there in America.

Rather than connecting Ebola hysteria to the midterm results, I think the midterm results may have been self inflicted.

in the form of an over confidence in the popularity of the policies themselves and an over confidence in the popularity of the president.

GreatNews2night · Dec 11, 2014

eohrnberger said:
Check back, I believe I posted pretty much the same back then. However, a travel ban from Ebola infected areas, or a forced 21 day isolation prior to permission to enter the US would have been effective counter measures. Might have been as close as one more infected traveler in the US from exactly that.

Mutation frequency goes up with the number of infected, as each infection represents it's own opportunity for the virus to mutate. As large as the population of the infected was (largest in history right?), the better the chances that a spontaneous mutation could occur.

Agreed.

Rather than connecting Ebola hysteria to the midterm results, I think the midterm results may have been self inflicted.

Obama: ‘Make No Mistake, My Policies Are On The Ballot This Fall’ | Washington Free Beacon

Axelrod calls Obama's midterm ballot line 'a mistake' - CNN.com

28 words that Democrats really wish President Obama didn’t say today - The Washington Post

Obama, GOP agree: His policies are on the ballot

in the form of an over confidence in the popularity of the policies themselves and an over confidence in the popularity of the president.

I won't give myself the trouble of browsing back but I believe you; you seem to have your head in your shoulders.

Yes, the president was rather stupid when he issued that quote; agreed. Still, at least some undecided voters may have panicked due to Ebola. You know that the fear factor always helps the GOP.

Today a colleague told me about a graduation paper by a neuropsychology student - it hasn't been published yet, but this colleague is a mentor for this student - comparing fear in progressive and conservative subjects (gauged by a series of questions about several political ideals and positions, then exposition of the subjects to frightening images) and also looking into functional MRI - it showed that conservatives tend to be more fearful and to have larger amygdalas in their brains, and more activation in their amygdalas when exposed to the images. The amygdala as you may know, is responsible for detecting fear and preparing for reaction to emergencies. Very interesting... like I said, there is no link so you'll have to just believe me, but I hope this gets published.

About mutations frequency - sure, it increases with more infected carriers, but it doesn't mean these mutations if they occur will change the mode of transmission, and it also doesn't mean they will preserve virulence. Blood-borne viruses do not tend to mutate to airborne very easily. Much the opposite, they tend to remain blood-borne.

The bottom line is, Ebola hasn't been a threat to public health in developed countries for the last 38 years ever since the virus came into existence, and it is unlikely that this will change. Not impossible, sure, but very unlikely.

By the way, even in Liberia the epidemic is now fading.

And say what you want, but I won't cancel my perception that part of the panic was politically motivated. Just look at the self-defined position regarding the political spectrum of folks here who issued the most panicky statements: conservatives were the vast majority of them.

Misterveritis · Dec 12, 2014

GreatNews2night said:
I believe that new cases might pop up here and there, but there will not be an outbreak among the American general population, simply because the modality of transmission for Ebola relies heavily on ignorant practices and lack of basic sanitation measures and medical facilities which is the case in Third World countries but not the case in developed countries.

Question: how many serious/highly dangerous (from the standpoint of public health) Ebola outbreaks have happened in Third World countries so far? Many. Question: how many serious/highly dangerous (from the standpoint of public health) Ebola outbreaks have happened in developed countries so far? ZERO. This should teach you something. This is a fact. This is what all the scientific evidence indicates: that Ebola is a disease that spreads well in dire sanitation conditions but doesn't spread well in places that are able to implement efficient isolation measures, exactly because IT IS NOT AIRBORNE!

I have not made the claim that it was airborne.

I hope you are right.