Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14

Thread: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

  1. #1
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Seen
    12-22-14 @ 06:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    77

    Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    risk_of_ebola_spread.0.jpg

    To develop these estimates, researchers used a computer model that tracks the frequency of international traffic to different countries, the progression of the disease in already affected countries, and the incubation time and other aspects of Ebola. The estimates will be updated as the epidemic continues.

    Outside of Africa, the risk is relatively high in the UK and France, but thankfully very low in India and China. The more advanced health-care systems in the UK and France are much better equipped to deal with an Ebola outbreak, while less advanced systems in China and particularly India, which also have considerably bigger populations to manage, could struggle to deal with an epidemic.
    Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next - Vox

    So, here’s a nice article. With a map. I guess, quite descriptive. According to it, though China and India are less prepared to deal with Ebola in the terms of medical care, the disease is more likely to spread to Europe.
    What do you think? Do you agree?

  2. #2
    Dungeon Master
    Somewhere in Babylon
    Jetboogieman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Somewhere in Babylon...
    Last Seen
    @
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    24,298
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    China is not so bad, but India... that's a huuuuuuuge ****ing problem if it gets into a slum there.

    The main thing is that this disease won't end up actually being so much about the disease, because we can contain it, of that I'm confident.

    It's the social implications.

    As soon as you stop the movement of people (travel bans or people not wanting to travel) the global economy is going to take a huge hit.

    We get alot of visitors from China, if they stop coming, we're ****ed, they are THE dominant demographic at the moment.

  3. #3
    Guru
    brothern's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 05:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    3,177
    Blog Entries
    8

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by Tameamea View Post
    What do you think? Do you agree?
    Not really. Ebola is a weak virus. It can be killed by soap and water. It's limited to transmission via bodily fluids. It kills or is gotten over very quickly once it is transmitted to someone. Those that are at risk are pretty much limited to caregivers and medical professionals. Those that are in contact with bodily fluids when working with those who are sick.

    Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are the countries struggling with this as their populations (West central Africa) are the second worst developed populations in the world. No infrastructure what so ever. They're only beaten by the landlocked central African countries (Chad, Niger, DRC, Central African Republic).
    Help fight Zika, TB, HIV/AIDs and water pollution by donating your CPU's excess processing time to scientific research.
    A self-serving billionaire engaging in historically massive personal corruption #NotMyPresident

  4. #4
    Tavern Bartender
    Constitutionalist
    American's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    76,323

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    China is not so bad, but India... that's a huuuuuuuge ****ing problem if it gets into a slum there.

    The main thing is that this disease won't end up actually being so much about the disease, because we can contain it, of that I'm confident.

    It's the social implications.

    As soon as you stop the movement of people (travel bans or people not wanting to travel) the global economy is going to take a huge hit.

    We get alot of visitors from China, if they stop coming, we're ****ed, they are THE dominant demographic at the moment.
    You're just full of good news aren't you? Anyway, don't worry as long as we have secrets to steal, they'll keep coming.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

  5. #5
    Dungeon Master
    Somewhere in Babylon
    Jetboogieman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Somewhere in Babylon...
    Last Seen
    @
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    24,298
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by brothern View Post
    Not really. Ebola is a weak virus. It can be killed by soap and water. It's limited to transmission via bodily fluids. It kills or is gotten over very quickly once it is transmitted to someone. Those that are at risk are pretty much limited to caregivers and medical professionals. Those that are in contact with bodily fluids when working with those who are sick.

    Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are the countries struggling with this as their populations (West central Africa) are the second worst developed populations in the world. No infrastructure what so ever. They're only beaten by the landlocked central African countries (Chad, Niger, DRC, Central African Republic).
    That's what alot of people don't understand.

    They see all the images over there and think the same thing can happen here, but it literally can't.

    1 - Poorest nations of the world.

    2 - Almost no healthcare system to speak of

    3 - Most of the population is illiterate so they couldn't get information to everyone through media to help curb the spread, during Sierra Leones outbreak and subsequent 3 day lockdown, workers had to go door to door checking for infection and explaining verbally how to stop infection.

    4 - we're not going to attack healthcare workers

    5 - We're not going to turn people away at the hospital

    6 - These countries had virtually no ability to contact trace and isolate

    7 - They do not have enough beds

    The list goes on and on and on but essentially there's alot of hype, it is a terrifying disease but whats worse is alot of people are using this horrific disease to score cheap political points.

    This thing will be beaten but at great cost because of the slow response, the biggest impact of this will be in West Africa and it won't actually be Ebola that will cause most of the suffering.

    It has left their already fragile economies in shambles just as they were starting to improve dramatically, people with many others diseases such as HIV and Malaria will go untreated as most resources go to the Ebola Crisis, cross border trade between the three countries (which incidentally is the reason is spread so quickly) has completely died, leaving many farmers without a source of income which will lead to a food crisis, many will starve.

    Thats the true impact of this crisis but there will be many lessons to learn from this in how we deal with these kinds of epidemics in the future, because something like this is unprecedented in modern times.

  6. #6
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    12-26-14 @ 02:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,032

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Meanwhile, Médecins Sans Frontieres has lost 9 doctors to Ebola and almost 20 more are infected.

  7. #7
    Sage
    jmotivator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 06:27 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    16,696

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    China is not so bad, but India... that's a huuuuuuuge ****ing problem if it gets into a slum there.

    The main thing is that this disease won't end up actually being so much about the disease, because we can contain it, of that I'm confident.

    It's the social implications.

    As soon as you stop the movement of people (travel bans or people not wanting to travel) the global economy is going to take a huge hit.

    We get alot of visitors from China, if they stop coming, we're ****ed, they are THE dominant demographic at the moment.
    China could be a disaster as well. A large portion of the Chinese people live is squalor and poverty. Also, China being China, the Communist party leaders might see Ebola as a solution to their population problems.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

  8. #8
    Dungeon Master
    Somewhere in Babylon
    Jetboogieman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Somewhere in Babylon...
    Last Seen
    @
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    24,298
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    China could be a disaster as well. A large portion of the Chinese people live is squalor and poverty. Also, China being China, the Communist party leaders might see Ebola as a solution to their population problems.
    Even the Central Committee isn't that callous.

    China, unlike India doesn't have as much an endemic problem with governmental incompetency and I am confident the Chinese can formulate an overall national strategy to control any outbreak that can occur.

    India is the real problem.

    If it gets there, we're in deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep ****.

  9. #9
    Sage
    jmotivator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 06:27 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    16,696

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Even the Central Committee isn't that callous.
    They certainly have a history of being so callous... they see it as practical.

    China, unlike India doesn't have as much an endemic problem with governmental incompetency and I am confident the Chinese can formulate an overall national strategy to control any outbreak that can occur.
    Well sure, but that solution, should an outbreak occur, will be wide spread quarantine zones. Which invariably mean that those in the quarantine zones will simply die, for the most part.

    India is the real problem.

    If it gets there, we're in deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep ****.
    I agree that India would be amazingly terrible if Ebola made it to the slums. China has the political will to let large groups of people die in order to cease the outbreak in its tracks and the army to enforce it. India is lacking in both regards.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

  10. #10
    Dungeon Master
    Somewhere in Babylon
    Jetboogieman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Somewhere in Babylon...
    Last Seen
    @
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    24,298
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    They certainly have a history of being so callous... they see it as practical.
    Dude if you're talking about Maos time... than you better stop playing the game because there's just no comparison from that time to modern China.

    Well sure, but that solution, should an outbreak occur, will be wide spread quarantine zones. Which invariably mean that those in the quarantine zones will simply die, for the most part.
    It would not be like that, I believe they will be able to isolate and contract trace pretty effectively and China does have alot more experience with disaster management and a much better healthcare system than Indias.

    I agree that India would be amazingly terrible if Ebola made it to the slums. China has the political will to let large groups of people die in order to cease the outbreak in its tracks and the army to enforce it. India is lacking in both regards.
    \

    I disagree that, that is the way the Chinese will deal with the problem, because again it is not as infectious as some of you are making it out to be.

    Again though, I stress this that the reason why we will be ****ed is not so much because of the disease itself, but its social implications.

    If the worlds second most populous country and the worlds 10th largest economy gets this disease in a big way, inter-state trade and international trade could collapse, travel in and out will cease and it'll hit the global economy in a huge way.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •