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Thread: Russia says it's pulling 17,000 troops from near Ukrainian border

  1. #31
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    Re: Russia says it's pulling 17,000 troops from near Ukrainian border

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Putin invades Ukraine, overextends himself, all the while the West led by the United States applies an ensemble of diplomatic strong arming and economic sanctions that within the year forces Putin to pull back, all without us needing to fire a shot at Russians and enter WWIII. But Putin is decently clever and Obama looks weak.

    [shakes head]

    Can you please explain what you mean?

    I don't understand what you mean by "Putin invades Ukraine, overextends himself". All the news I could find point to his clear win.
    First of all, do you know how many Russian troops were moved to Crimea duriasng this time? I think that the 18k more fighters were simply no longer needed(and why continue wasting money on the relocation).
    And do you really think that Ukranian army will now take back Novorossia? There seems to be no change in situation in "disputed" areas(Donetsk airport, etc.), same uneventful fighting continues.

    I think the fact that it was ordered before Putin's meeting with poroshenko was done to give Ukranian's president some leeway so that he can say that he "made" Russia retreat and save his face(while in fact it means nothing). By the end of the week temperature will drop severely and it is time to use Putin's next "trump card" - Ukranian debt for gas/gas supply for this winter.


    So I see that he fulfilled his objective(reunited with Crimea/got an important strategic military base), destroyed Ukrainian economy and holds it hostage with situation in Novorossia, gas prices, etc.. In fact no one even talks seriously about the return of Crimea, so a clear win on this.

    I think that Putin never intended for Novorossia to join Russia at least for some time, at least I think that in the following year sanctions will not allow Russia to have enough free money to properly rebuild that area, better make Ukraine deal with that problem right now, the conflict is not going to be resolved any time soon anyway.

    I understand that TV news in my country is not trustworthy, but I got all my information from Internet/Euronews/RBC(financial channel) and I think I gave adequate references for the facts used. So, what did I miss?

  2. #32
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    Re: Russia says it's pulling 17,000 troops from near Ukrainian border

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    For those who continue to believe that the sanctions had no bearing on Russia's recent decision to pull troop from Ukraine...

    Russia's Lavrov says ties with Washington need 'reset 2.0' | Reuters

    From the article:



    So, if you think the sanctions didn't have a drastic affect, think again!

    Your quote is old(two weeks when you posted), it is misleading about position of Russia and they don't even quote Lavrov on the most interesting part. How about something newer, official and with actual proof?

    CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev Speaks with CNBC's Geoff Cutmore Today

    From the article:

    Geoff Cutmore: Can I pick up on President Obama? There's been some suggestion that there is a possibility for a reset of the relationship. Foreign Minister Lavrov suggested this could happen. Can it happen while sanctions are still in place?

    Dmitry Medvedev: No, of course not. It's absolutely impossible. Let's be clear: we did not come up with these sanctions. Our international partners did. As we say in Russia, let God be their judge. Of course, we will overcome these sanctions. I have no doubt that after a while these sanctions will dissipate; there will be no more sanctions, but we can't deny the fact that they have damaged our relations. I understand the concerns that our partners may have regarding the international situation and the developments in Europe and Ukraine, although clearly Ukraine is closer to us than anyone else, because people of Ukraine are very close to us. But when the foundations of international relations, which we have worked so hard for, are being sacrificed to impose all sorts of restrictions just to show how cool we are, just to show that somebody can punish someone... well, in my opinion, it's an absolutely destructive, and I would even go as far as saying, a stupid position. It's sad to hear President Obama say in an address at the UN that the threats and challenges facing humanity are, in this particular order, the Ebola virus, the Russian Federation, and only then the Islamic State. I don't want to dignify it with a response. It's sad, it's like some kind of mental aberration. We need to come back to a normal position, and only after that we can elaborate on how we are going to elaborate our positions in the future. Here's my last point. We are not closing any doors. All that we want is a constructive and friendly dialogue with all civilised nations, including, of course, our partners in Europe and the United States. But to do so, we must bring the situation back to normal.

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    Re: Russia says it's pulling 17,000 troops from near Ukrainian border

    Quote Originally Posted by xzkto View Post
    Your quote is old (two weeks when you posted), it is misleading about position of Russia and they don't even quote Lavrov on the most interesting part. How about something newer, official and with actual proof?
    Don't try to move the goal post, my man. The situation is what it is! The sanctions did have an impact no matter how Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov tries to spin things to look more like a power play that favors Russia's actions over the sanctions. The reason I quoted from the linked article in my post (#25) should be obvious to you. This was an issue that was first made public weeks ago by Russia officials themselves despite the fact that the Obama Administration (the President and former Sec Clinton) had been calling for a "reset" long ago, but Russia bulked. The only reason they've come back to the negotiating table is because of the economic impact the sanctions have had on their economy. Again from the article I quoted in the aforementioned post:

    Lavrov said that despite the Western sanctions, Russia did not feel isolated on the world stage. Moscow has responded to the sanctions by banning most Western food imports.

    "We feel no isolation. But, having said that, I want to emphasize in particular that we do not want to go to extremes and abandon the European and American directions in our foreign economic cooperation," Lavrov told Channel 5.

    Fighting the Ukrainians didn't do it. Russia could have easily steam-rolled them. They would have won easily.

    No other country fired a shot in hostilities towards them. So, if military might wasn't the defining leverage that pulled Russia back in, what was?

    To quote former President Bill Clinton, "It's the (Russia) economy, stupid!" Now, whether you wish to acknowledge that the sanctions had a significant impact is totally up to you, but there's no denying they did have an impact.
    Last edited by Gina; 10-16-14 at 07:13 PM.
    "A fair exchange ain't no robbery." Tupac Shakur w/Digital Underground

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    Re: Russia says it's pulling 17,000 troops from near Ukrainian border

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    So, if military might wasn't the defining leverage that pulled Russia back in, what was?
    Putin has reached his objective(see my previous post) and he pulled his troops simply because they are no longer needed. You can look my previous post - there was literally no reason for that troops to stay and it did cost a lot more money to have them on the border(food, shelter etc..) then in place of their dislocation. In case he needs troops - he can use the ones stationed in Crimea(they got massive upgrades, "legal", and just as close), troops that are still fighting in Novorossia(they made documents for everyone they needed, so a lot of troops are *literally* indistinguishable from russian Ukranians that live in Novorossia, again "legal" in terms of sanctions) or they could just get them back on the border faster then Ukranian army can make any significant progress in Novorossia(Putin is not sending them too far). I'm pretty sure that Putin never intended to get control of all the Ukraine, in any case Russia certanly doesn't want to deal with crowd of angry nationalists inside it's borders right now.

    And again, what do you think was the purpose of that troops? My undestanding is it had multiple purposes: to make it easier to smuggle troops inside Ukraine, to scare Ukrainian army so that they don't do anything "rash", etc.. There are possibly a lot of them but they all have one thing in common: as soon as it became clear that pro-Russian forces are not going to significantly advance any further and the situation stabilized - their presence lost it's purpose and their continued dislocation turned into a waste of money.


    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    The sanctions did have an impact no matter how Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov tries to spin things to look more like a power play that favors Russia's actions over the sanctions.
    Right now sanctions haven't impacted Russia in any significant way yet. I mean that Russian market drop is noticable, ruble is slowly but steadily devaluating, cash outflow is increasing etc.. But still it is not noticable for ordinary people like me and experts predict that any considerable effect will be seen closer to mid-spring. Right now Putin has bought a very important military base, quite a bit of land, a giant boost in popularity in Russia, a place in history etc.... all of it for about 200bil$ if you count everything(with cash outflow) for now. That is quite a good price! I bet any country will agree to that deal. I mean even twice that deal. You can't disagree that if USA could get the same for the same amount of money they would have agreed without thinking. And Putin has a big chance to expand Russia even more after the situation in Novorossia became more clear, it is like there is a sale!


    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    This was an issue that was first made public weeks ago by Russia officials themselves
    So? Of cource Russia wants all sanctions cancelled(why wouldn't they?). Your main mistake is - Putin is not going to forfeight his interests in exchange of sanctions cancellation, he likes what he is doing and he knows that there most likely will be no protests against him in Russia untill ordinary people start to really suffer from the sanctions, and that shouldn't happen at least until spring. This is not the first time USA uses sanctions against Russia(Chechnya, Georgia, etc..), and Russia has never changed it's goals to conform to the demands.

    This is really important: Russian position on external sanctions is the same as it's position on terrorism - no negotiations on matters of national interest. And I mean it. Putin will not budge even if you increase sanctions tenfold unless there is a civilian unrest protesting him(yep, he is a dick like that). And, please, believe me here, there will be no protests even in spring - there is a thing that Russians hate and are scared of even more then low quality of life, etc.. It is Maidan. I will not debate it here, it probably requires a lot of explaning of politics, culture and history but you can ask any Russian you want - you will get the same answer.

    Proof from article you linked

    Lavrov:
    "First of all, it is important that our partners understand the futility of ultimatums and threats."
    ...
    "I very much hope that the United States will finally... realize that they can no longer act as the prosecutor, the judge, and the executioner in every part of the world and that they need to cooperate to resolve issues."
    There is MUCH more in article I linked, or even better listen to what Putin is saying.


    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    The only reason they've come back to the negotiating table is because of the economic impact the sanctions have had on their economy.
    This is not true, read what I wrote before. More:
    1) Putin never left the "negotiating table", there were a lot of meetings with EU officials(Impact of EU sanctions is incomparably bigger then from USA).
    2) USA/EU never promised anything specific for pulling back the troops, but they could cancel them if violence in Novorossia was stopped and heavy weapons were moved away. Strangely he did the first.
    3) Putin could have pulled back the troops three weeks ago(when the artice was made), situation on Ukraine was the same. Why he didn't? Because he doesn't care about sanctions and he knows that Poroshenko will not start any aggressive actions right before elections, so he waited as much as he wanted.
    4) Winter is coming!

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    No other country fired a shot in hostilities towards them. So, if military might wasn't the defining leverage that pulled Russia back in, what was?
    Common sense. Really. There was literally no point in keeping them. And there wasn't even any promises from USA/EU coinciding with it. And forces of Crimea and Novorossia are not leaving anywhere. Putin got exactly what he wanted, now he just need to stay low and wait until sanctions are gradually cancelled like it happened with all the previous sanctions, demands were never met but still they were dropped.

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    Now, whether you wish to acknowledge that the sanctions had a significant impact is totally up to you, but there's no denying they did have an impact.
    Of cource they had impact. Just not the USA's sanctions, but EU's. And it didn't affect Putin, he will continue to live in wealth without any care about sanctions. It will impact me, my family, my friends etc.. Next spring is going to be hard but I hope there will be no internal unrests and we will all live.

    This is exactly the point I was trying to make writing all of this. Next time you support this sanctions - know, you are not doing them against Putin, you are doing them against me. You try to increase them - Putin still will not care. They will not change anything. Russia will not try to konquer whole Ukraine. Crimea is not going to return. Novorossia is not goint to capitulate. It will just hurt me and people I care about a bit more. And of cource it will make a lot of people *hate* West a bit more. And a lot of people will love Putin a bit more, because in this conflict he looks like our protector against "evil" West, trying to find new markets, making some innovations... It doesn't even matter what he does, external "punishment" is enough. So Russia will slowly distance itself from the West and turn to the East and South. Putin will continue to gain power. And he will slowly increase the censorship. And he will..... Well we all know how it ends. The thing is - sanctions are bad for both Russia and EU/USA. I think a quote from Dmitry Medvedev's interview from my previous post fits here perfectly:

    "I don't want to dignify it with a response. It's sad, it's like some kind of mental aberration."

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