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Thread: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    No one was saying that...But, you're attempt to just be aloof about it, as though you think you're better than those that are concerned is just plain foolish. That's my opinion.
    Not aloof, just logical
    "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by beefheart View Post
    Not aloof, just logical
    That may be how you see it...But it is not how it comes across.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    Lefty's don't fear science nor the boogeyman. Righty's ignore the real threats, because they fear science.

    Attachment 67174894

    Of course, we all have our irrational fears.... mine is sharks (I practically went into cardiac arrest when I encountered one off Tortola... even though I scared him as much as he scared me)... But Sharks are nearly 4 times the risk of Ebola.
    Your argument assumes that the statistics of getting Ebola are static.

    Epidemics are not static. The chance of getting Ebola does not act like the chance of getting heart disease or cancer, which changes only slowly over time.

    the problem is those who are NOT concerned about Ebola do not understand the nature of Exponential Growth of Epidemics!


    The current Ebola Epidemic in Western Africa Started in March of this year.

    The WHO estimates that this upcoming month there will be 10,000 new cases with a 50% mortality rate.

    Currently more than 5000 people have died.

    In January of this year, there had not been any deaths, not ONE, in Africa for a number of years.

    Timeline: Tracing the world's worst Ebola outbreak - Firstpost

    March 22: Guinea confirms that a previously unidentified hemorrhagic fever, which killed over 50 people in its southeastern Forest

    Region, is Ebola. One study traces the suspected original source to a 2-year-old boy in the town of Gueckedou. Cases are also

    reported in the capital, Conakry.
    Before this, the most recent deaths were in 2012.

    Ebola virus disease - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    On 17 August 2012, the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of the Ebola-Bundibugyo

    variant[123] in the eastern region.[124][125] Other than its discovery in 2007, this was the only time that this variant has been

    identified as the ebolavirus responsible for an outbreak. The WHO revealed that the virus had sickened 57 people and claimed 29

    lives. The probable cause of the outbreak was tainted bush meat hunted by local villagers around the towns of Isiro and Viadana.

    This is the mathematical nature of Exponential Growth of Epidemics.

    You cannot scientifically base your assessment of the threat based on the static number of people who currently have the disease in

    your country, as a percentage of the total number of people, if you have have more than zero people infected.

    Because just one case can grow exponentially, just as it did, this year alone, in Africa, to thousands, and likely millions, in less

    than a year.

    People quote two cases in America, compared to a 316 Million population, and dismiss the case as statistically insignificant.

    You're looking at it all WRONG!

    There were Zero, Zilch, Nada, None, No cases at all in Africa in January of 2014, and there hadn't been a case since 2012.

    In a year, in Africa, it has gone from 1 case in March, to 10,000 new cases a WEEK in October.

    That is exponential growth!

    -
    Last edited by Kurmugeon; 10-24-14 at 02:00 PM.
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  4. #124
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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurmugeon View Post
    In a year, in Africa, it has gone from 1 case in March, to 10,000 new cases a WEEK in October.
    That's not correct. The latest Ebola Situation Report from the World Health Organization reported a cumulative total of 9,936 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases through October 19. The October 12-19 period saw 939 new confirmed, probable, or suspected cases.

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    That's not correct. The latest Ebola Situation Report from the World Health Organization reported a cumulative total of 9,936 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases through October 19. The October 12-19 period saw 939 new confirmed, probable, or suspected cases.
    The CDC is projecting 10,000 new cases a week, which has been reported by the NYT and USA today.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...n-15/17267617/

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/wo...rica.html?_r=0

    Ebola could hit 10,000 cases per week in Africa; U.S. steps up response

    William M. Welch and Rick Jervis, USA TODAY 7:26 p.m. EDT October 14, 2014

    The Ebola epidemic in West Africa could reach 10,000 cases a week and U.S. health officials are promising dramatic response to any new domestic outbreaks that signal intercontinental spread of the deadly virus.

    The Centers for Disease Control will send a rapid response team to any hospital in the nation that diagnoses another Ebola patient, director Tom Frieden said Tuesday.

    ...
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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurmugeon View Post
    The CDC is projecting 10,000 new cases a week, which has been reported by the NYT and USA today.
    Yes, there is a possible scenario under which the number of new cases could reach 10,000 per week. That's a separate issue, but that outcome hasn't happened yet. Right now, the number of weekly cases is much lower (ranging between 122 and 138 per week over the past month).

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    That may be how you see it...But it is not how it comes across.
    Someone has to be logical and not spreading unwarranted fear.
    "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Yes, there is a possible scenario under which the number of new cases could reach 10,000 per week. That's a separate issue, but that outcome hasn't happened yet. Right now, the number of weekly cases is much lower (ranging between 122 and 138 per week over the past month).
    Exactly. That outcome is a projection of what might be the case in a couple months if nothing is done now. I assume something is being done now.

    But definitely not 10,000 cases a week now. And I doubt in the future, unless those who have the power to stop it sit on their hands and do nothing.

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Quote Originally Posted by beefheart View Post
    Someone has to be logical and not spreading unwarranted fear.
    You make very little sense....Are you talking to yourself?
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: 58% of Americans want to ban flights from West Africa[W:106]

    Who cares what Russia Today news has to say about anything?

    I know that I don't.

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