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Thread: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate.....

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by HonestJoe View Post
    I'm still not clear what here is new or unexpected. This article isn't about specific gaps or flaws, just an analysis of the situation as it is known and understood. I don't want to do you a disservice but you do seem to be trying to spin it up in to something more significant and, dare I say, scary.
    The point was.....the US thought they were ready and prepared. They discovered they weren't and had to play catch up. Now according to these Scientists they are calculating in 18 days. High Risk Ebola will be entering France and the UK. That's why they worded it that way.

    If they didn't think it wasn't important enough to put it out with the Media then it wouldn't be.

    Oh and I am not spinning any of it.....its already whats been up in the news.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Now according to these Scientists they are calculating in 18 days. High Risk Ebola will be entering France and the UK. That's why they worded it that way.
    The scientists didn't word that, the Yahoo headline writer did. The wording of the actual report in question is perfectly bland and boring.

    Incidentally, you do realise that it's saying "There is a high risk that Ebola could enter these countries" and not that something called 'High Risk Ebola' will be entering those countries?

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    If they didn't think it wasn't important enough to put it out with the Media then it wouldn't be.
    Their stated interest wasn't to get in the media but to inform the relevant authorities already managing these risks. The media just picked up on it because it was published in the public domain and any "new" information about Ebola, especially with scary sounding predictions, sells copy at the moment.

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Oh and I am not spinning any of it.....its already whats been up in the news.
    As I said, I didn't want to do you a disservice but even though that isn't your intention, it is how your posts could come across. It's the kind of thing that requires care and consideration.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by HonestJoe View Post
    The scientists didn't word that, the Yahoo headline writer did. The wording of the actual report in question is perfectly bland and boring.

    Incidentally, you do realise that it's saying "There is a high risk that Ebola could enter these countries" and not that something called 'High Risk Ebola' will be entering those countries?

    Their stated interest wasn't to get in the media but to inform the relevant authorities already managing these risks. The media just picked up on it because it was published in the public domain and any "new" information about Ebola, especially with scary sounding predictions, sells copy at the moment.

    As I said, I didn't want to do you a disservice but even though that isn't your intention, it is how your posts could come across. It's the kind of thing that requires care and consideration.

    If in 18 days it could.....what do you think their model says after 60 days? That it still could?

    Also one needs not just read a post here and there. They should read what one has said from the beginning.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    If in 18 days it could.....what do you think their model says after 60 days? That it still could?
    Everything is a "could" until it happens or doesn't. The probabilities calculated over the longer period of time would depend on predictions of how the epidemic develops in Africa (notably Nigeria) - probably why they've not tried to strech it out that far.

    Still, I'm not clear what your point is. That it is possible that infected individuals could travel to other countries is obvious. The countries they're most likely to travel to is common sense with some basic understanding. That the longer the epidemic continues and the wider spread it becomes, that risk increases is sadly but clearly inevitable.

    There are no new conclusions here. We need to do everything we can to try to hold back and ultimately eradicate the epidemic in Africa and we need to have measures in place to properly identify and manage infected individuals in other countries, especially those with a greater risk of that occurring. That has been the intention from day one.

    It's a good thing that independent experts are crunching the numbers on this so as to provide the best information possible to the people managing the situation in these various countries and making all the difficult decisions of how best to respond. It's generally a good thing that it's in the public domain, allowing other interested and informed individuals to add to the pool of information but the downside it that it provides the uninformed and vested interests material to add their distractions.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    It appears they are looking at this virus spreading.....even with High risk cases. In the meantime here in the US Duncan is in critical condition and that's with treatment. What say ye?


    Reuters - Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

    Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent. France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow airport is one of the world's biggest travel hubs. Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks and now being regularly updated at ebola - MoBS

    The latest calculations used data from October 1.....snip~

    High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate
    The solution is simple: Ban travellers coming from Ebola-hit countries in Africa!
    But then that makes too much sense, and God knows we can't have any of that!

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by Roadvirus View Post
    The solution is simple: Ban travellers coming from Ebola-hit countries in Africa!
    But then that makes too much sense, and God knows we can't have any of that!
    This explains it better than I could; Should we ban flights from countries with Ebola outbreaks?

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    The point was.....the US thought they were ready and prepared. They discovered they weren't and had to play catch up. Now according to these Scientists they are calculating in 18 days. High Risk Ebola will be entering France and the UK. That's why they worded it that way.

    If they didn't think it wasn't important enough to put it out with the Media then it wouldn't be.

    Oh and I am not spinning any of it.....its already whats been up in the news.
    More breathless hype. It's not headless chicken time yet.
    There may be a high risk that Ebola will arrive in Europe sooner than later, but the high risk is that it will get here, not that the infection is high risk. If anything, the virus is quite hard to catch.
    Don't work out, work in.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    More breathless hype. It's not headless chicken time yet.
    There may be a high risk that Ebola will arrive in Europe sooner than later, but the high risk is that it will get here, not that the infection is high risk. If anything, the virus is quite hard to catch.
    Isn't Spain part of Europe? If so it's already there.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by HonestJoe View Post
    Allright, let us go through those arguments.
    1. No direct flights
    - That is irrelevant. What they should do is to limit visas, and they should look for Liberian/Guinean/etc passport stamps. Tourists who has been in Liberia will need passport stamps to show that they are staying there legally. Locals are going to need a visa.

    2. Even if travel could be reduced by eighty per cent—itself a feat—models predict that new transmissions would be delayed only a few weeks
    - That is a stupid argument. If you get 1 person 2 weeks later, then it means you would have gotten 5 people 2 weeks later. It is a lot harder to contain 5 ebola outbreaks than to contain 1 ebola outbreak.

    3. It will affect the economy
    - Yes, it will affect those countries but they are screwed anyway. The effect on the US economy will be positive as people get less scared.

    4. It will be harder to bring aid
    - No it won't. We don't need to have the same rules for everyone. Aid workers should be allowed to go home, but they will be placed in quarantine till we know they are safe. If I was an aid worker, I would do that voluntarily. Because if I have ebola, the last thing I want to do is to transmit the disease to my family and friends.

    All the arguments from them stinks. Remember it is the same people who previously said ebola was no big deal and put in zero effort to fight it in July. They got no legitimacy. I believe there is another reason, but they don't like mentioning it. "They are worried that if they close the borders, then Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will get mad at western countries and it will be harder to help them." They are thinking about doing as much as possible in Liberia, people in the US are thinking about preventing it from spreading. And that's more important, because US may able to contain it, but will India, Bangladesh, and other African countries be able to contain it? If US takes the lead in making restrictions, other countries will follow. At the same time we will protect US citizens.

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    Re: High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate...

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    More breathless hype. It's not headless chicken time yet.
    There may be a high risk that Ebola will arrive in Europe sooner than later, but the high risk is that it will get here, not that the infection is high risk. If anything, the virus is quite hard to catch.
    It is not hard to catch, or this would never happen
    Health-Care Worker Contracted Ebola in Spain - WSJ
    If someone sneezes on you, or you touch a surface with ebola and then touch your face, then you may get the disease

    It is true that it is slightly harder to get compared to influenza, but it also comes with a 50% death rate.

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