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Thread: Shocking North Korea Development!

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by MaggieD View Post
    I thought he was dead.
    That was Kim Jong Il

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Unless you have some unique information to share I'm not sure how you could be so certain that this hasn't been directed by Kim Jung Un. I agree that his condition is worth paying attention to but I think you are falling into the same trap Kremlinologists fell in by trying to discern major policy conclusions on scant evidence like who sat in what chair, who did or didn't appear at a particular event, etc.

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    and still is, to all available evidence - though his condition is worse than suspected and he is out of commission, that could deteriorate.



    Oh. You must have extremely good SIGINT to be aware of all of the interactions between KJU and his top brass.
    You don't need any inside intelligence to know that the military does not jump until the leader says jump. That's how his uncle got executed......
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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Unless you have some unique information to share I'm not sure how you could be so certain that this hasn't been directed by Kim Jung Un. I agree that his condition is worth paying attention to but I think you are falling into the same trap Kremlinologists fell in by trying to discern major policy conclusions on scant evidence like who sat in what chair, who did or didn't appear at a particular event, etc.
    Kim Jong Un would make any order apparent, not doing so makes it look as if he does not have control of the military. That is why whenever moves like this are made, they are publically announced by either his team of propagandists thru the media, or by his own mouth.
    - There was never a good war, or a bad peace.
    - Idealistically, everything should work as you planed it to. Realistically, it depends on how idealistic you are as to the measure of success.
    - Better to be a pessimist before, and an optimist afterwords.

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Capster78 View Post
    Kim Jong Un would make any order apparent, not doing so makes it look as if he does not have control of the military. That is why whenever moves like this are made, they are publically announced by either his team of propagandists thru the media, or by his own mouth.
    Why do you assume that? They have frequently relied upon random and surprise announcements, forays, and the like in the past. It isn't impossible to imagine that Kim is truly ill and that this isn't the result of back-room political wrangling. Without more evidence I think it's far too hasty to assume or even hypothesize something as drastic as him not controlling the military. It's hardly unprecedented for the Supreme Leader to drop out of sight for extended periods of time. Kim Jung Il did it frequently and it always caused wild speculation that he had been ousted in a coup, died, or some other similar catastrophic theory. North Korean analysis requires extreme caution and prudence because we know so little and can assume even less.

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Capster78 View Post
    Kim out of sight, North Korean leaders visit South - CNN.com

    I have been following and studying North Korea ever since I was stationed there back in 2006. There have been several reports of power struggles within the North Korean regime. Most of the time its just a byproduct of the media just trying to gain ratings and print headlines. I have also been following the rise of the new leader, Kim Jong Un, and have noticed several interesting things. While watching video of him, I notice an uneasiness about him as if he is not comfortable in his shoes. He does seem, unlike his father, more like a puppet. Kind of like a blind dog being guided by some outside entity. I feel, that Kim Jong Un may not actually be running the show. That is why there was a recent and shockingly public struggle for power between him and his uncle who was executed. It was a battle that Kim Jong Un won, even with the little experience he has as the new leader. Which to me shows the position itself has a lot of clout, no matter who posseses the title. But I feel that may be coming to an end. The current unexpected outreach by Military leaders from North Korea seems to be out of step with the traditional way North Korea deals with the outside world. You would suspect some type of announcement by Kim Jong Un for a meeting, rather then a surprise visit by Military Leaders. It seems to me, this may be a move by the powerful military arm of North Korea to gain some type of credibility and status from under Kim Jong Un. I feel they are taking advantage of his current state of health to gain influence with the south and the international community. Its way to early to tell, but I wonder if Kim Jong Un has fallen deathly ill, has been assassinated or has already died from whatever he was stricken with. I suspect we will know more very soon.
    Really? You were stationed in North Korea?
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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Capster78 View Post
    Kim Jong Un would make any order apparent, not doing so makes it look as if he does not have control of the military. That is why whenever moves like this are made, they are publically announced by either his team of propagandists thru the media, or by his own mouth.
    Also if there had really been a coup in North Korea do you really think the new regime's first order of business would be to dispatch diplomats on a non-substantive media mission to the South? I find it hard to believe that the machinery of governance, even in North Korea, would be operating normally and smoothly after such an event.

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Also if there had really been a coup in North Korea do you really think the new regime's first order of business would be to dispatch diplomats on a non-substantive media mission to the South? I find it hard to believe that the machinery of governance, even in North Korea, would be operating normally and smoothly after such an event.
    To be honest, I find that scenario somewhat plausible. They could easily secretly reach the South through such a silent cover if a smooth coup is successful (which is highly doubtful). In fact, I think that would be the first order of business if a coup did succeed.
    "The misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all" - Joan Robinson
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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Also if there had really been a coup in North Korea do you really think the new regime's first order of business would be to dispatch diplomats on a non-substantive media mission to the South? I find it hard to believe that the machinery of governance, even in North Korea, would be operating normally and smoothly after such an event.
    Yes, because it would be a stage in which the successors could cement their presense on by appearing with the South Koreans in a meeting to debate issues on the peninsula. Whoever is seen to be the one in charge of confronting the south, we be seen as the one who has the power in the regime.
    - There was never a good war, or a bad peace.
    - Idealistically, everything should work as you planed it to. Realistically, it depends on how idealistic you are as to the measure of success.
    - Better to be a pessimist before, and an optimist afterwords.

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    Re: Shocking North Korea Development!

    Quote Originally Posted by Roadvirus View Post
    Kim Ding Dong would rather see South Korea turned into a smoldering crater...not send military reps to hand out peaceful overtures.

    Something must be rocking in Pyongyang to bring this on. Too bad all we can do here in the US for now is speculate. North Korea is so unplugged from the rest of the world, no one knows what goes on unless it's first approved by Dear Midget..i mean Leader.
    This could be good or bad. If there is a power struggle, the side that wants no part of peace with SK could get desparate and launch an attack.

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