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Thread: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

  1. #61
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    Duh! They always cook the books just before an election.
    BLS does not "cook the books." Its data is independent of the White House or Congress. Moreover, the basis of the labor force participation data you provide is also very same BLS that reports the headline unemployment figure.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by shrubnose View Post
    Some people on the right will always find something to complain about when Obama's name comes up.

    I can't wait to hear what they have to say after they lose again in 2016.

    The clock is ticking.
    It was out of white guilt?

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "If you don't want your tax dollars to help the poor, then stop saying you want a country based on Christian values, because you don't." Jimmy Carter

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    The youngest baby boomers aren't even 60 yet. The oldest Baby Boomers are just now reaching 65. Given the significant loss in asset values for many baby boomers, (home prices, etc.) they are putting off retirement because they don't have the potential retirement income they were hoping for.

    Perhaps you need to revisit your conclusions.
    Perhaps you need better exposure to the data:

    Since the final quarter of 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.9 percent to 62.8 percent in the second quarter of 2014, a decline of 3.1 percentage points. In this report, the Council of Economic Advisers estimates that this 3.1 percentage point decline can be attributed to three main sources:

    About half of the decline (1.6 percentage point) is due to the aging of the population.

    Because older individuals participate in the labor force at lower rates than younger workers, the aging of the population exerts downward pressure on the overall labor force participation rate. While older workers today are participating in the labor force at higher rates than older workers of previous generations, there is still a very large drop-off in participation when workers enter their early 60s.

    About a sixth of the decline in the overall participation rate (0.5 percentage point) is a cyclical decline in line with historical patterns in previous recessions.

    While the unemployment rate has come down from a peak of 10.0 percent in October 2009 to 6.1 percent in June 2014, it has remained elevated for the last several years. Historically, elevation in the unemployment rate is associated with a decline in labor force participation, as potential workers may decide to defer looking for a job until the economy improves. A portion of the most recent decline in the participation rate reflects this historical pattern, which this report refers to as the “cyclical” effect.

    About a third of the decline (1.0 percentage point) arises from other factors, which may include trends that pre-date the Great Recession and consequences of the unique severity of the Great Recession.

    In particular the two elements of this “residual” not explained by the standard factors are:

    The fact that participation rates conditional on age were declining for many groups in the run-up to 2008, including for prime-age men from the 1950s and for prime-age women from the late 1990s, may also have contributed to the decline in participation. This would have been expected to result in a decline in the participation rate above and beyond the pure aging effect even in the absence of a recession. Note, these effects were partly offset by other pre-existing trends, like a rise in the participation rate for older workers.

    The severity of the Great Recession, which has resulted in an unusual pattern of a very large share of long-term unemployed relative to total unemployment, may have lowered the participation rate more than would have been expected through normal channels. In fact, we find that a declining participation rate is historically correlated with the elevation of long-term unemployment, suggesting that both issues have a common cause or cause each other.
    Why make posts about topics you clearly don't understand?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    And look at the line...it was dropping slowly until about 2009...and then it starts to plummet.

    Now what event happened in early 2009...hmmmmm?

    This is NOT just people retiring. This is clearly people giving up looking for work as well.

    Plus, of those that did retire, how many did so strictly because they could not find work?


    Btw, I am neither dem or rep.
    Well, let's look at the percent of the population that does not want a job (left Y-axis) versus the labor force participation rate (right Y-axis)

    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    When was the last time bad unemployment news came out before an election?

    Books cooked.
    2008. The financial crisis played a key role in shaping the outcome of that election.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    If Romney had won we would be in another recession like Europe is. That is what they do. We would also be talking about ending SS and Medicare, that is also what they do.
    Only if you believe they believe their own nonsense! Cutting government spending and ending a plethora of programs would be political suicide at this juncture. Had Romney been elected president, i believe we would have had an even larger deficit.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    As per usual, the media look at the headline numbers and do not (for the most part) do their homework and look under the surface.

    This is actually a fair report at BEST (I personally think it was a bad but not terrible report)...and typical of the Obama/Fed recovery (the Mercedes/McDonald's recovery)

    (All these numbers are from the household survey)

    Of the 232,000 more people employed in September,

    - a whopping 230,000 are over 55!


    - 45,000 were teenagers (16-19)

    How did the rest do? Lousy.

    - 20-24 years old went DOWN 72,000

    - the all important 25-54 went DOWN 10,000

    So all of the newly employed are either teenagers or over 55. The 20-54 age range had 82,000 less people employed.

    Plus (or minus in this case), the average hourly wage dropped by a penny.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

    So, basically, the less of the prime money making Americans are working and more of the lower wage, McDonald's/Walmart-type positions opened up.

    Once again, the Mercedes/McDonald's recovery is in full swing (where the rich get richer and the middle class give up there solid jobs to work at McDonald's).
    I'm just glad to see that you are as concerned with income disparity as I am.

    Obama ran on the income disparity issue as part of his platformed, he has performed terribly on this issue - to the point of near total failure.

    I'm also glad to see that you are more concerned with the employment situation of people who actually need jobs to support themselves and their families with, rather than being concerned about folks near or of retirement age and teenagers who just want a few bucks for some new wheels.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Perhaps you need better exposure to the data:



    Why make posts about topics you clearly don't understand?
    I'm a Baby Boomer, so why embarrass yourself with such a claim?

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    I'm a Baby Boomer, so why embarrass yourself with such a claim?
    Your statement was clearly incorrect. More than half of the participation rate decline can be attributable to age. Why not try and learn something for a change instead of spouting off baseless drive-by talking points?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  10. #70
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by lifeisshort View Post
    ...The participation rate fell at least as much or more than the unemployment rate...
    No it didn't.

    And have you ever thought to consider who those are who aren't participating in our workforce?

    People like...

    1) My 99 year old granny
    2) My 21 year old college student son
    3) The retired people who live across the street and are living on their lifetime savings
    4) My son's friend from college who served in the military and received the first Congressional Medal of Honor issued this year (he jumped on a granade to protect others and lost an eye and and ear and had tramatic injury to most all of his body)
    5) Paris Hilton
    6) The lady down the street from me who decided to leave her job to home school her two kids
    7) Mit Romney
    8) Bill Gates

    Seriously, look around you, think about people who you know but who don't work. Are these people welfare slackers?
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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