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Thread: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

  1. #371
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Ummm...the chart shows that the LFPR of those over 55 has increased since 2000.

    How can 1/2 of the drop in the LFPR since 2000 be attributed to seniors when the BLS states that the LFPR of those over 55 has gone up since 2000?

    Come on now.
    Umm, because of math?

    Let's say we have 100 people in the labor force. 10% of them are over 55 (10 people). 60% of those over 55 do not participate because of retirement (6 people). This means 6 people out of 100 (6%) is not in the labor force because of retirement.

    Now, 15 years later, we still have 100 people in the labor force. 40% of them are over 55 (40 people). Of them, only 30% (an improvement of 30%) do not participate because of retirement (12 people). This means 12 people out of 100 is not in the labor force because of retirement. But our percentage of people not in the labor force because of retirement has still increased (6% to 12%).

    Obviously I made those particular numbers up, but they clearly show that just because the percentage in one subgroup increase, that doesn't mean the percentage of the overall group cannot decrease because of that group.

    So, yeah...math. In other words, your chart really had nothing to do with anything (like usual).
    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Well I would disagree with thee Democrats wouldn't I ?
    Ugh, my bad, wrong thread. I answered in the correct thread.
    Last edited by Slyfox696; 10-06-14 at 05:08 PM.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    Yes, everyone. The fact you found an article which agrees the recession technically ended in summer 2009 (which even I said was true) doesn't change the fact the EFFECTS from the recession continued on long after.

    But thank you for wasting my time with an irrelevant source that simply confirmed what I already agreed to and in no way disputed what I said. Good day.
    A few other sources that think the 'recovery' started in 2009:

    The U.S. Economic Recovery: Long, Slow, but Still Going - Businessweek

    The recovery began in 2009 but 2013 will get the credit [UPDATE] - UPI.com


    So, UPI, Businessweek and the the Pew Research Center (for starters) saying the recovery began in July, 2009.

    Jeez...even Paul Krugman agrees with me (that it started in 2009 anyway).

    'And the free fall has ended. Last week’s G.D.P. report showed the economy growing again, at a better-than-expected annual rate of 3.5 percent. As Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com put it in recent testimony, “The stimulus is doing what it was supposed to do: short-circuit the recession and spur recovery'

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/op...02krugman.html


    I give up on this.

    Anyway, I have made my point...you don't agree, so be it.

    I are done here.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 10-06-14 at 05:23 PM.

  3. #373
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    A few other sources that think the 'recovery' started in 2009:

    The U.S. Economic Recovery: Long, Slow, but Still Going - Businessweek

    The recovery began in 2009 but 2013 will get the credit [UPDATE] - UPI.com


    So, UPI, Businessweek and the the Pew Research Center (for starters) saying the recovery began in July, 2009.

    Jeez...even Paul Krugman agrees with me (that it started in 2009 anyway).

    'And the free fall has ended. Last week’s G.D.P. report showed the economy growing again, at a better-than-expected annual rate of 3.5 percent. As Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com put it in recent testimony, “The stimulus is doing what it was supposed to do: short-circuit the recession and spur recovery'

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/op...02krugman.html


    I give up on this.

    Anyway, I have made my point...you don't agree, so be it.

    I are done here.


    Good day.
    Employment is a lagging indicator.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Wow, given that statistic, it would seem the FED is also less than objective.

    Wasn't it Yellen ( Fellow Keynesian ) who claimed the falling Labor participation rate was due to demographics ?
    She did say this recently:

    'What is more difficult to determine is whether some portion of the increase in disability rates, retirements, and school enrollments since the Great Recession reflects cyclical forces. While structural factors have clearly and importantly affected each of these three trends, some portion of the decline in labor force participation resulting from these trends could be related to the recession and slow recovery and therefore might reverse in a stronger labor market'

    FRB: Speech--Yellen, Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy--August 22, 2014


    I am not sure if she is just saying that to justify continuing low interest rates after the initial Fed target of 6% U-3 rate is now met OR if she just really feels that way.

    Two things about Yellen for me:

    1) I trust that she means what she says (more or less)/

    2) I trust that she is a macroeconomic ignoramus (like most at the Fed).
    Sure, she is a fantastic bean counter. But a good economist? :

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    I have 2 issues with this release of information......

    1) It is not accounting for all those people who gave up looking.
    So? If they give up looking, then they are not seeking a job, and thus they aren't unemployed, they are either retired or doing something else (like volunteer work, being a homemaker, going to school...you know, the things that republicans now despise but used to value).


    2) Jobs as fry cooks at McDonald's and greeters at Wal-Mart seem to be the vast majority of the jobs people are picking up.
    Sure. Those are still jobs. Conservatives seem to not even want the minimum wage to exist, they seem perfectly fine with low wage employment, so no conservative should be complaining about lots of low wage jobs being created. That's simply where the demand for workers is, and with wages not increasing (and conservatives seem to not want that to happen), more and more jobs will be low wage.

    Look, folks. The effects of the Great Recession are going to be felt for at least a generation. When The Great Depression hit, it wasn't until the 1950's that things were going at the rate they were before the depression hit. It's the same here. Rosy outlooks are only seen through rose colored glasses, but the ugly fact that our economy still needs improvement is not going to go away any time soon. I don't give a damn who is in office, Republican or Democrat. This problem will be with us for some time to come.
    Exactly. But the drop in unemployment is real, and it's a step toward that recovery. No one is claiming that our economy is 100% sound, only that it is slowly and very steadily improving. Most of us would much rather see slow steady growth than booms and crashes - so the nice thing is that since we aren't having a boom, as long as we stay the course we are not likely to see a crash anytime soon.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    'Unemployed
    [uhn-em-ploid]
    adjective
    1.
    not employed; without a job; out of work:
    an unemployed secretary.'


    Unemployed | Define Unemployed at Dictionary.com

    Why? Because by definition (I don't care about the BLS definition), they ARE unemployed....
    Then maybe we shouldn't even be looking at the lfpr as it doesn't include everyone - not people under 16 or people institutionalized. Those infants need to go get a job - slackers!
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Obama Beats Romney's Campaign Promise Of 6% Unemployment In Half the Time | The Daily Banter

    If Friday’s long-awaited dip in unemployment below 6% sounded a little bit familiar to you, that’s because it was the exact benchmark that Republican presidential candidate and choice of White America Mitt Romney laid down for his own hypothetical presidency. Obama achieved that goal within 21 months of his second term, but as one Twitter user pointed out, Romney promised that pie-in-the-sky dream on an entirely different timetable:
    Read more at Obama Beats Romney's Campaign Promise Of 6% Unemployment In Half the Time | The Daily Banter
    "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    I find this whole LFPR a very perplexing rightwing talking point. The Right is trying way too hard on this one.

    The LFPR in the US is in line with that of most advanced economies. If anything it's a tad higher than most of Europe. If you compare it to the world, you find that most poor third world economies have a very high LFPR. The reason is obvious: no social safety net for retiring, and child labor.

    So I take it that the conservatives now want our economy to look more like Ethiopia's than Germany's? Those conservatives and their funny ideas!

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump



    LOL !!

    Yep, he sure did didn't he ? We just have to keep our blinders on and ignore all of the other indicators that give an ACCURATE description of our current economic conditions.

    Hey, the FED said they would stop QE if unemployment ever dropped below 6 percent too. So whats the hold up Yellen ?

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by FaceofBachmann View Post
    I find this whole LFPR a very perplexing rightwing talking point. The Right is trying way too hard on this one.

    The LFPR in the US is in line with that of most advanced economies. If anything it's a tad higher than most of Europe. If you compare it to the world, you find that most poor third world economies have a very high LFPR. The reason is obvious: no social safety net for retiring, and child labor.

    So I take it that the conservatives now want our economy to look more like Ethiopia's than Germany's? Those conservatives and their funny ideas!


    LOL !!

    You thought of that all by yourself, didn't you ?

    Made the tenuous connection that Millions not being able to find employment is a positive economic indicator ?

    And that the Labor market ia right were we need to be because we don't want to turn into " Ethiopia " ??

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