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Thread: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Baby boomers!

    What is your point?
    The point should be obvious...that the contention that roughly 1/2 of the reason that the LFPR has been going down since 2000 is due to retiring seniors is clearly erroneous.

    Here is a graph, but I take no responsibility for it's authenticity. I just am using it to add to the discussion:



    http://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2013/04...-retiring-not/
    Last edited by DA60; 10-06-14 at 01:09 PM.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    ... the economic impact of building a pipeline v. building a hotel. The point was (and is) in terms of job creation, the Keystone Pipeline is much to do about nothing.... Even if you just want to focus on the build... the Keystone pipeline creates about as many jobs as five major hotels.
    If you think only 2,000 people are going to be effected by the pipeline, you don't know anything about pipelining.
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Ummm...the chart shows that the LFPR of those over 55 has increased since 2000.

    How can 1/2 of the drop in the LFPR since 2000 be attributed to seniors when the BLS states that the LFPR of those over 55 has gone up since 2000?

    Come on now.
    So prove it!

    Find the multiplicative factor for both labor force and the total population, and use it to smooth population dynamics so that you can accurately compare population trends from 1995 with 2013. A less accurate, but easier approach would be to use averages for both population and employment. Then compare the differences for the over 55 cohort.

    Or..... you can just use that data provided in the White House's research. They take an even more methodical approach, using lifecycle data among multiple cohort groups to weed out consistencies in participation as a function of age. If that isn't enough, the authors include two additional methods of modeling: Time Series and Structural Micro-Data modeling.

    The authors were detailed enough to analyze other factors influencing labor force participation; cyclical and residual, employing both Time Series and Multivariate linear analysis.

    Their results have been provided multiple times in this thread.

    total aging trend.JPG
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    I have 2 issues with this release of information......

    1) It is not accounting for all those people who gave up looking.

    AND

    2) Jobs as fry cooks at McDonald's and greeters at Wal-Mart seem to be the vast majority of the jobs people are picking up.

    Look, folks. The effects of the Great Recession are going to be felt for at least a generation. When The Great Depression hit, it wasn't until the 1950's that things were going at the rate they were before the depression hit. It's the same here. Rosy outlooks are only seen through rose colored glasses, but the ugly fact that our economy still needs improvement is not going to go away any time soon. I don't give a damn who is in office, Republican or Democrat. This problem will be with us for some time to come.
    The ghost of Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2016

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    I have 2 issues with this release of information......

    1) It is not accounting for all those people who gave up looking.
    Why would you want to consider them unemployed and the same as people trying to find work? What does someone who hasn't looked for work in February tell me about the job market in August?

    But the number of people not looking (regardless of whether they ever looked) but say they want a job, is tallied and available. A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

    AND

    2) Jobs as fry cooks at McDonald's and greeters at Wal-Mart seem to be the vast majority of the jobs people are picking up.
    There's no way to know that. At best you can look at overall industry.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Share buybacks represented roughly 35% of all free cash flow and short term cash equivalents in 2013. Here is a good take on the situation.

    FWIW, private nonresidential fixed investment does not include share buybacks and dividends.

    Hmm...then they backed off a bit. It was over 50 percent.

    Still a substantial amount and a clear indicator that they're not as confident in these jobs numbers as some of the posters here are.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    So prove it!

    Find the multiplicative factor for both labor force and the total population, and use it to smooth population dynamics so that you can accurately compare population trends from 1995 with 2013. A less accurate, but easier approach would be to use averages for both population and employment. Then compare the differences for the over 55 cohort.

    Or..... you can just use that data provided in the White House's research. They take an even more methodical approach, using lifecycle data among multiple cohort groups to weed out consistencies in participation as a function of age. If that isn't enough, the authors include two additional methods of modeling: Time Series and Structural Micro-Data modeling.

    The authors were detailed enough to analyze other factors influencing labor force participation; cyclical and residual, employing both Time Series and Multivariate linear analysis.

    Their results have been provided multiple times in this thread.

    total aging trend.JPG
    The BLS states that the LFPR of those over 55 has gone up significantly since 2000.

    if that is not proof enough for you that the notion that the White House is putting forward that roughly half of the LFPR drop since 2000 is due to senior retirement is erroneous...so be it.

    As much as I belittle the BLS, I will take their word over the White House's 'model's' on this any day.


    I will let those with an open mind decide which argument makes more sense.


    We are done here, for now.

    Good day.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Why would you want to consider them unemployed and the same as people trying to find work?
    'Unemployed
    [uhn-em-ploid]
    adjective
    1.
    not employed; without a job; out of work:
    an unemployed secretary.'


    Unemployed | Define Unemployed at Dictionary.com

    Why? Because by definition (I don't care about the BLS definition), they ARE unemployed.
    it amazes me that types like you believe that people who are unemployed and want a job and are available to work can be considered NOT unemployed.

    But the number of people not looking (regardless of whether they ever looked) but say they want a job, is tallied and available. A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex
    And if you count all those that are available to work now and who want a job the unemployment rate would be (by my quick calculations) 9.1%.

    And that number is why, imo, the BLS is allowed/instructed to tabulate the 'official' unemployment rate as it does.

    Because 5.9% sounds a WHOLE lot better then 9.1%.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    'Unemployed
    [uhn-em-ploid]
    adjective
    1.
    not employed; without a job; out of work:
    an unemployed secretary.'


    Unemployed | Define Unemployed at Dictionary.com

    Why? Because by definition (I don't care about the BLS definition), they ARE unemployed.
    If you don't understand that there's a difference between a dictionary definition and a technical definition used for a specific purpose, there's not much help for you.

    By the dictionary definition you cite, the unemployment rate would be approximately 54%. By the dictionary definition you would be including infants, prisoners, people in a coma, and everyone not able to work or who doesn't want to work as unemployed.

    Why do you think that's useful?

    Oh, now, before you come back with "well, of course I didn't mean to include infants etc, they fit the dictionary definition and you can't get around that.

    it amazes me that types like you believe that people who are unemployed and want a job and are available to work can be considered NOT unemployed.
    I believe that people who are not trying to work or are unavailable for work do not tell us anything useful about the actual conditions of the labor market. And again, your dictionary definition doesn't say anything about desire or availability. You can't have it both ways...say the BLS definition is wrong because it doesn't match the dictionary, but then come up with your own definition that doesn't match the dictionary either.

    And you're avoiding the point....what does someone who is not trying to work tell us about the current availability of jobs?



    And if you count all those that are available to work now and who want a job the unemployment rate would be (by my quick calculations) 9.1%.

    And that number is why, imo, the BLS is allowed/instructed to tabulate the 'official' unemployment rate as it does.

    Because 5.9% sounds a WHOLE lot better then 9.1%.[/QUOTE]
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    If you don't understand that there's a difference between a dictionary definition and a technical definition used for a specific purpose, there's not much help for you.

    By the dictionary definition you cite, the unemployment rate would be approximately 54%. By the dictionary definition you would be including infants, prisoners, people in a coma, and everyone not able to work or who doesn't want to work as unemployed.

    Why do you think that's useful?

    Oh, now, before you come back with "well, of course I didn't mean to include infants etc, they fit the dictionary definition and you can't get around that.

    I believe that people who are not trying to work or are unavailable for work do not tell us anything useful about the actual conditions of the labor market. And again, your dictionary definition doesn't say anything about desire or availability. You can't have it both ways...say the BLS definition is wrong because it doesn't match the dictionary, but then come up with your own definition that doesn't match the dictionary either.

    And you're avoiding the point....what does someone who is not trying to work tell us about the current availability of jobs?



    And if you count all those that are available to work now and who want a job the unemployment rate would be (by my quick calculations) 9.1%.

    And that number is why, imo, the BLS is allowed/instructed to tabulate the 'official' unemployment rate as it does.

    Because 5.9% sounds a WHOLE lot better then 9.1%.
    1) My dictionary point is that you are calling people NOT unemployed who ARE unemployed...by the English language definition AND (I assume) by most people's definition.

    Now, if you want to call them as different classes of unemployed...fine. But you are not even doing that.

    This argument is pointless as you clearly have your mind made up.

    All I am saying is that these people that do not have a job, want a job and are available to work ARE unemployed...by definition.

    And unless I am wrong, most people use a dictionary rather then the BLS to tell them what words mean.


    2) I was not avoiding anything. I took from your post what interested me and commented on it.

    But I will answer your question...the first thing that occurs to me is it tells me they are either wealthy enough that they do not need a job (which is the VAST minority) or that they want a job, but sincerely believe that there is not a job available to them a) at all; or b) that will make a meaningful improvement in their life (i.e. they need far more money then the only job they think they can get will pay).

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