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Thread: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

  1. #131
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% ipn September, Payrolls Jump

    While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% - the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows. And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!

    (From a mobile site)

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    I already gave them to you
    Series Report tool

    Population LNS10000000
    Not in Labor Force LNS15000000
    Labor force participation rate LNS11300000
    Not in labor force wants job now LNS15026639

    So the red line is (not in the labor force minus not in the labor force wants a job now)/population In other words: those who do not want a job as a percent of the population.
    And the blue line is the labor force participation rate.
    okay, thank you.

    1) the 'nice chart' you posted was, no offense, almost a complete waste of time. It is one of those charts that uses two totally different measurements PLUS posts them using data that appears to go up/down to the same percentage...when the two stats are measured using very different variances.
    I.E. the data on the left goes up using intervals that are roughly half of the percentage intervals of the data on the right.
    Obviously, whomever made this chart desired to make the two lines look like they are going in matching, opposite directions..when they statistically are not.
    That is why I try not to pay attention to 'nice charts'...they are little more then visual aids. And sometimes they visually distort the truth.
    The raw data is (IMO) almost always a better source.

    2) I think we have been over this before.

    If you have a point to make, please make it using only the BLS site because I still cannot find what you are talking about.

    Are you talking about the A-16 chart?

    Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

    Come on man, some of us have lives and have better things to do then track down the sources for your theories/ideas.

  3. #133
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    How many of you supporting the Idiot in chief, are paid by the democratic party to come on here, and try to convince everyone things are so good.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by SENSIBLE PATRIO View Post
    How many of you supporting the Idiot in chief, are paid by the democratic party to come on here, and try to convince everyone things are so good.


    That's not a sensible thing to say nor is it patriotic.


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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    okay, thank you.

    1) the 'nice chart' you posted was, no offense, almost a complete waste of time. It is one of those charts that uses two totally different measurements PLUS posts them using data that appears to go up/down to the same percentage...when the two stats are measured using very different variances.
    I.E. the data on the left goes up using intervals that are roughly half of the percentage intervals of the data on the right.
    Obviously, whomever made this chart desired to make the two lines look like they are going in matching, opposite directions..when they statistically are not.
    That is why I try not to pay attention to 'nice charts'...they are little more then visual aids. And sometimes they visually distort the truth.
    The raw data is (IMO) almost always a better source.

    2) I think we have been over this before.

    If you have a point to make, please make it using only the BLS site because I still cannot find what you are talking about.

    Are you talking about the A-16 chart?

    Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

    Come on man, some of us have lives and have better things to do then track down the sources for your theories/ideas.
    surely it cant be news to you how the jobless rate has dropped. Its been consistant for years.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post


    That's not a sensible thing to say nor is it patriotic.
    Very sensible, and Patriotic, anyone supporting this BOZO is no patriot.

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Yes, thanks for illustrating my point. There has been no steady decline since 2000. In fact, there was no decline at all for much of that decade.
    That's true, however it's important to factor in the housing bubble which inflated many statistics.


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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Why isn't the Administration patting them selves on the back for this chart?

    Data extracted on: October 3, 2014 (12:13:18 PM)

    Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

    Series Id: LNS13025703
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Of Total Unemployed, Percent Unemployed 27 Weeks & over
    Labor force status: Unemployed
    Type of data: Percent or rate
    Age: 16 years and over
    Duration : unemployed/laid off: 27 weeks and over
    Percent/rates: Percent of unemployed within group


    latest_numbers_LNS13025703_1948_2014_all_period_M09_data.gif
    Wake Up America!

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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    It is not a matter of interpretation.

    You will not find a single credible study that supports your opinion.

    Speaking of meaningless thoughts... why do you continue to participate in this discussion without contributing anything of value?
    Again, I am confident with my personal experience and knowledge on the subject. Why do you reply to someone who obviously doesn't care a bit about anything you have to offer?

  10. #140
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    Re: Jobless Rate in US Falls to 5.9% in September, Payrolls Jump

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    okay, thank you.

    1) the 'nice chart' you posted was, no offense, almost a complete waste of time. It is one of those charts that uses two totally different measurements
    What do you mean two different measurements? Both are percentage of the population.

    PLUS posts them using data that appears to go up/down to the same percentage...when the two stats are measured using very different variances.
    Not that much variance. It is roughly the same. The left Y axis has a range of 3.5 percentage points and the right Y axis has a range of 4.2 percentage points.

    I.E. the data on the left goes up using intervals that are roughly half of the percentage intervals of the data on the right.
    Your math sucks. The intervals on the left Y axis is .5 percentage points and the interval on the right is .6 percentage points Not really an issue.

    You do realize that since they're both percentages of the same thing, it doesn't matter that one is from 31.5% to 35% and the other is 62.4 to 66.2? The difference is minimal.

    Obviously, whomever made this chart desired to make the two lines look like they are going in matching, opposite directions..when they statistically are not.
    I made it and I just created it so you could see both together. And they both are going in opposite directions...Not in the Labor Force does not want a job went up 2.7 percentage points and the labor force participation rate went down 2.9 percentage points. Again, they're both percentage of the population. So how does the chart not accurately reflect the 2.7% increase in percent that doesn't want a job and the 2.9% drop in the labor force percent?


    2) I think we have been over this before.

    If you have a point to make, please make it using only the BLS site because I still cannot find what you are talking about.
    How many times have you rejected my links to BLS because it's biased? Be consistent. And I did link to the BLS site and gave you the series report numbers.

    Are you talking about the A-16 chart?
    Sort of. Though I was using the seasonally adjusted data.

    Come on man, some of us have lives and have better things to do then track down the sources for your theories/ideas.
    For the third time posting the link and codes: Go to BLS Series Report : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Put in the series report numbers I gave you:
    Population LNS10000000
    Not in Labor Force LNS15000000
    Labor force participation rate LNS11300000
    Not in labor force wants job now LNS15026639

    To get those who are not in the labor force and don't want a job, subtract "wants a job now" from the total labor force.
    I assume you know how to divide that result from the population to get the percentage.

    That's why I used the FRED site. Easier, and it's the same data.
    Last edited by pinqy; 10-03-14 at 02:07 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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