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Thread: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Actually on this front I do feel a bit for her, as the whole situation around the Argentinian debt stinks big time. The debt was bought up by hedge funds who now are refusing to join an agreed plan to deal with the old debt... they are basically holding Argentina hostage and I suspect that the reason they are doing this, is to push Argentina into a default so the CDS on the debt can be triggered and they are using the US court system to do so which in it self is dangerous as hell. Ultimately who pays for this.. most likely the US tax payer.
    It was Chavez that led the charge, encouraging his neighbors toward financial independence and cutting the strings to the IMF. Of course it wasn't popular up north, but it was good policy and Argentina should have listened. A straight up default isn't good.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    They hold 7% of the debt and are pushing a country into default again for their own greed.
    Why is it that seeing a business try to hold on to its assets must be termed greed. It is just business. You borrow, you have to repay.

    And you have to remember this is not recent debt, but debt taken up decades ago and the economy has recovered relatively speaking and these 7% hedge funds are now deliberately pushing for a default.
    A default doesn't benefit a creditor. They are most likely pushing for some payment.

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    The Argentine President appears to be breaking down under stress. She may be correct that the U.S. government hopes that her government falls, but U.S. political preferences are not the same thing as planning to topple a government, much less to cause "something" to happen to another leader. IMO, such rhetoric diverts from an issue on which she has a legitimate argument (as do the hedge funds).

    How to reconcile the differences between the parties is key. Ultimately, some kind of compromise would offer the best chance to end the dispute. Imposition is not helpful and the Judge's ruling has made it less likely that there will be a settlement, as he has hardened the differences and pushed Argentina into technical default with Argentina incurring costs.

    Going back to the Argentine President, her legitimate grounds are that a U.S. judge is acting in a fashion that has:
    1. Violated Argentina's sovereignty.
    2. Created a situation of technical default for Argentina.
    3. Inflicted economic and reputational costs on Argentina that would not otherwise have occurred.

    Her best strategy would entail:
    1. Focusing on the sovereignty argument in making her case. That argument drew considerable sympathy at the UN General Assembly session, including from some European and Asian countries.
    2. Use the Bank for International Settlements or some other international institution as the mechanism for making payments, as international institutions would fall outside the U.S. judge's purview and there would be a far higher probability that Argentina's debt payments would reach their creditors. The Judge might well try to order the creditors not to accept the payments, but such a ruling might not be legally sustainable. More importantly for Argentina, such a ruling could not place it in technical default.
    3. Work to create bilateral payments agreements and facilities with the numeorus countries (including a European and Asian ones) that were sympathetic to her position at the UN to begin rebuilding access to global financial markets on a country-to-country basis.
    4. Leave open the option for the hedge funds to obtain the same terms all the other creditors can attain, though she could suggest that their payments would be net of legal charges Argentina has incurred on account of their actions.
    5. As the UN General Assembly for a vote to seek an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (a binding ruling would not be feasible, as the U.S. will not agree to an International Court of Justice case to resolve the affair for complex reasons that include U.S. sovereignty with respect to its judicial system and its backing the hedge funds in question).

    All said, she's not in an unsalvageable position. Her fearful rhetoric has not helped her case.

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    No it is not absurd, the US has done it before in Argentina and other countries in South America.. either directly or indirectly by supporting a military coup.
    No, it's absurd.

    The Cold War is over, been over.

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    No. She is only utilizing the stupidity and/or poor level of information understanding in the population she needs to stay in power. That is quite rational.
    Are Argentinians buying it though?
    Last edited by Van Basten; 10-03-14 at 10:05 AM.
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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The Argentine President appears to be breaking down under stress. She may be correct that the U.S. government hopes that her government falls, but U.S. political preferences are not the same thing as planning to topple a government, much less to cause "something" to happen to another leader. IMO, such rhetoric diverts from an issue on which she has a legitimate argument (as do the hedge funds).

    How to reconcile the differences between the parties is key. Ultimately, some kind of compromise would offer the best chance to end the dispute. Imposition is not helpful and the Judge's ruling has made it less likely that there will be a settlement, as he has hardened the differences and pushed Argentina into technical default with Argentina incurring costs.

    Going back to the Argentine President, her legitimate grounds are that a U.S. judge is acting in a fashion that has:
    1. Violated Argentina's sovereignty.
    2. Created a situation of technical default for Argentina.
    3. Inflicted economic and reputational costs on Argentina that would not otherwise have occurred.

    Her best strategy would entail:
    1. Focusing on the sovereignty argument in making her case. That argument drew considerable sympathy at the UN General Assembly session, including from some European and Asian countries.
    2. Use the Bank for International Settlements or some other international institution as the mechanism for making payments, as international institutions would fall outside the U.S. judge's purview and there would be a far higher probability that Argentina's debt payments would reach their creditors. The Judge might well try to order the creditors not to accept the payments, but such a ruling might not be legally sustainable. More importantly for Argentina, such a ruling could not place it in technical default.
    3. Work to create bilateral payments agreements and facilities with the numeorus countries (including a European and Asian ones) that were sympathetic to her position at the UN to begin rebuilding access to global financial markets on a country-to-country basis.
    4. Leave open the option for the hedge funds to obtain the same terms all the other creditors can attain, though she could suggest that their payments would be net of legal charges Argentina has incurred on account of their actions.
    5. As the UN General Assembly for a vote to seek an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (a binding ruling would not be feasible, as the U.S. will not agree to an International Court of Justice case to resolve the affair for complex reasons that include U.S. sovereignty with respect to its judicial system and its backing the hedge funds in question).

    All said, she's not in an unsalvageable position. Her fearful rhetoric has not helped her case.
    Her real best option would be to privatize lots of government owned businesses, adopt the US Dollar as Argentina's currency, cut down spending, and stop government intervention in the country's economy. In short, stop her Keynesian socialist policies and adopt a free market approach. Its the only way Argentina can move forward.

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by PoS View Post
    That is what hedge funds do so there is nothing predatory about it and it is legal.
    No one said it was not legal. Much of the predatory lending during the US subprime crap was legals as well.

    What caused this mess is the Argentine government with their military dictatorships that ran up huge amounts of debt.
    No that debt defaulted long ago.

    It is not about greed, it is about survival, a hedge that loses 70% of their holdings will not be in business for long.
    Bull****. It wont impact them at all and has nothing to do with survival. If it did, then it would take the deal because at least it would get something. What these funds are doing now, is pushing the country into default, meaning everyone will lose except those that bought insurance against default...

    Argentina has never fully recovered. They have been locked out of financial markets because they chose to default like a bunch of deadbeats. If you break the rules then expect markets to push back.
    Sigh you have no idea what you are talking about.

    Their motivation is that Argentina will hopefully live up to their commitments and pay their debts in full just like everybody else.
    Bull****. Their motivation is greed and always has been. They stand to make more in letting Argentina default on a minor part of their debt than taking a haircut.. that is all this is about.
    PeteEU

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by Van Basten View Post
    No, it's absurd.

    The Cold War is over, been over.
    And tell that to the American right.

    Are Argentinians buying it though?
    Good question and I suspect they are, just as the American right believe that the Cold war never ended and all that crap.
    PeteEU

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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    Why is it that seeing a business try to hold on to its assets must be termed greed. It is just business. You borrow, you have to repay.
    It is greed because this effects millions of people, and there is an alternative. And it is greed because by pushing for a default then they will get most if not all of their 7% back via their insurance. That is greed.

    A default doesn't benefit a creditor. They are most likely pushing for some payment.
    LOL since when? You have heard of CDS right? If the hedge funds have taken out such, which is very likely, then they stand to lose pretty much nothing. Sure it screws over millions of people and only benefits the few rich who invest in the hedge fund, but hey it is "business" no?
    PeteEU

  9. #29
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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    I'm just waiting for PeteEU to show up and explain why it all makes total sense because of the innate evil at the core of America.

    Edit: Haha, I missed it.

  10. #30
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    Re: US could topple my government, kill me: Argentina's Kirchner

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    No one said it was not legal. Much of the predatory lending during the US subprime crap was legals as well.
    Your definition of hedge funds as predators falls right in line with the Argentine president's. Youre pretty much agreeing with her that it was illegal for them to do it. Typical socialist nonsense.

    No that debt defaulted long ago.
    And they have been locked out of the markets ever since and have never recovered. So please, spare me the socialist BS. The Argentines have been intervening in every single aspect of their economy and have not curtailed their spending habits thereby continually destroying their economy- its pretty much what happened to Greece and a lot of the other EU countries.

    Bull****. It wont impact them at all and has nothing to do with survival. If it did, then it would take the deal because at least it would get something. What these funds are doing now, is pushing the country into default, meaning everyone will lose except those that bought insurance against default...
    If there was any insurance they would have used it. There is no such insurance against government default.

    Bull****. Their motivation is greed and always has been. They stand to make more in letting Argentina default on a minor part of their debt than taking a haircut.. that is all this is about.
    Wrong. If Argentina wants to return access to the world financial markets then they have to pay their debts just like all the other nations of the world. Who gives Argentina the right to default and not have to pay off debts? Nobody.

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