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Thread: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

  1. #31
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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    Very astute analysis. The US had become so successful on the world stage that we really had no direction, other than securing resources for energy needs, maintaining economic partners and securing the homeland and assets abroad against radical extremism.

    I'm shocked that someone today actually picked up on this statement below.



    Putin is literally playing games and has no desire for any real confrontation, or even continued sanctions. He's got to be allowed to find an 'out' to maintain his authority, dignity and status in his country. He over-played his hand, but will still get something out of this. He couldn't let those western and southern pipelines come thru Syria, or for the Ukraine to break away without taking a financial beating. It's almost scripted, it's so well orchestrated.

    You're absolutely correct in agreeing with Kissinger and Scowcroft, in that those are flawed notions that intl law, global trading and economic interconnectedness have trumped the balance of power.

    Also, I agree where we've entered an era where the US cannot fix all of the world's problems. And our lack of direction and achievable goals for the long term are from a lack of political cohesiveness and economically driven policies. Corporate hegemony has been allowed too large an influence in our matters of governance. We need to organize our needs and priorities, before we keep running off half cocked, over reacting, to every News cycle, or we're going to face many great social upheavals.
    Right now, it appears that the moves and countermoves of the parties have developed a momentum of their own. That momentum has reduced their flexibility to seek accommodations. Even a few weeks ago, possible terms that might have accommodated both Russia and the EU/U.S. would have involved leaving Crimea as is (perhaps to be discussed in the future with no Western recognition of Russia's annexation) and granting southeastern Ukraine's ethnic Russians a choice to remain in Ukraine or to depart for Russia with full amnesty for all who took part in the conflict. In return, most or all of each of the parties' sanctions would be lifted. Ukraine would have been most resistant, but tying such terms to renewed favorable natural gas pricing might have provided at least some chance of success. Nothing was assured, but some probability of success existed. That probability is clearly much lower now.

    Now, resolving the problem has become more difficult. Ukraine will take a tougher stand and neither the EU nor U.S. will want to be seen as establishing a 21st century "Munich" moment. Russia is more deeply invested and Putin, who abhors weakness, will not want to be seen as making any meaningful concessions, especially as it has been widely reported that Russian military members have died in the conflict. Moreover, Russia stands to gain not just possible territory or influence/greater capacity to project power, but also the loyalties of ethnic Russians and even population if Russia annexes southeastern Ukraine. The population issue would help mitigate some of Russia's demographic pressures related to a general population decline, though there was recent stabilization with a modest increase. Whether that stabilization is temporary remains to be seen.

    Overall, things are evolving toward a high stakes standoff. With room for maneuver narrowing, the risk that the standoff could be of a fairly long duration are increasing. That still may not be the most likely outcome, but it is no longer a low probability scenario.

  2. #32
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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Right now, it appears that the moves and countermoves of the parties have developed a momentum of their own. That momentum has reduced their flexibility to seek accommodations. Even a few weeks ago, possible terms that might have accommodated both Russia and the EU/U.S. would have involved leaving Crimea as is (perhaps to be discussed in the future with no Western recognition of Russia's annexation) and granting southeastern Ukraine's ethnic Russians a choice to remain in Ukraine or to depart for Russia with full amnesty for all who took part in the conflict. In return, most or all of each of the parties' sanctions would be lifted. Ukraine would have been most resistant, but tying such terms to renewed favorable natural gas pricing might have provided at least some chance of success. Nothing was assured, but some probability of success existed. That probability is clearly much lower now.

    Now, resolving the problem has become more difficult. Ukraine will take a tougher stand and neither the EU nor U.S. will want to be seen as establishing a 21st century "Munich" moment. Russia is more deeply invested and Putin, who abhors weakness, will not want to be seen as making any meaningful concessions, especially as it has been widely reported that Russian military members have died in the conflict. Moreover, Russia stands to gain not just possible territory or influence/greater capacity to project power, but also the loyalties of ethnic Russians and even population if Russia annexes southeastern Ukraine. The population issue would help mitigate some of Russia's demographic pressures related to a general population decline, though there was recent stabilization with a modest increase. Whether that stabilization is temporary remains to be seen.

    Overall, things are evolving toward a high stakes standoff. With room for maneuver narrowing, the risk that the standoff could be of a fairly long duration are increasing. That still may not be the most likely outcome, but it is no longer a low probability scenario.
    I didn't know they were that close to a reasonable solution. Your detailed knowledge of the situation is far greater than mine. It also sounds like the devil is in the details with this situation. I couldn't understand after Putin had fairly well annexed Crimea, why they didn't stop there? But apparently the rest of Ukraine wasn't having none of that or the western alliance by pushing for Poroshenko replacing Yanukovych, which Russia didn't like at all.

    I've seen enough Media snapshots of Obama with Putin leering at him, and Obama's head down in disappointment to know there's no love loss. Putin is old school KGB and has no respect for weakness, which I'm sure he see's our President as wearing a skirt. They need to find some subordinates or mediators that can have a meaningful dialogue, and figure out some diplomatic solution, before it gets out of hand. I suspect this won't be solved quickly, but with Russia's economy taking hits, it'll force Putin's hand sooner than later. And I'm afraid this will come down to some serious reactions before they settle on where to draw lines.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    I didn't know they were that close to a reasonable solution. Your detailed knowledge of the situation is far greater than mine. It also sounds like the devil is in the details with this situation. I couldn't understand after Putin had fairly well annexed Crimea, why they didn't stop there? But apparently the rest of Ukraine wasn't having none of that or the western alliance by pushing for Poroshenko replacing Yanukovych, which Russia didn't like at all.

    I've seen enough Media snapshots of Obama with Putin leering at him, and Obama's head down in disappointment to know there's no love loss. Putin is old school KGB and has no respect for weakness, which I'm sure he see's our President as wearing a skirt. They need to find some subordinates or mediators that can have a meaningful dialogue, and figure out some diplomatic solution, before it gets out of hand. I suspect this won't be solved quickly, but with Russia's economy taking hits, it'll force Putin's hand sooner than later. And I'm afraid this will come down to some serious reactions before they settle on where to draw lines.
    I wouldn't say the parties were close, but there were concrete items being discussed and there were emerging understandings. With so many parties, the diplomacy was complicated. But now the probability of a diplomatic settlement is much lower. A ceasefire would now represent a positive development.

  4. #34
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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by EnigmaO01 View Post
    You mean like Libya? And don't forget this president actually whacked Bin Laden unlike the last one that said he didn't care.
    You give him far too much credit.
    "Have the courage to have your wisdom regarded as stupidity. Be fools for Christ. And have the courage to suffer the contempt of the sophisticated world." - Antonin Scalia

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    For a start we can elect a strong Conservative POTUS. The world does not respect liberal democrats.
    That was a cop out answer. Basically not an answer. No surprise though.

    Did you know the world couldn't believe we elected Reagan and Bush?

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    For get about ISIS, I/P, Ebola, Ferguson and worry about slipping into an escalating conflict with a nuclear super power, or not.
    What the **** is he going to do anyway?

    I'd throw cannon fodder in his direction just to wake him up.....

    Obama is such a tool tho......The retard doesn't even understand he's getting blasted by yo-yo's to the face....

    That clown Obama is golfing and Putin is playing hockey.....

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by EnigmaO01 View Post
    That was a cop out answer. Basically not an answer. No surprise though.

    Did you know the world couldn't believe we elected Reagan and Bush?
    Not a cop out. The world does not respect democrat presidents and they were made to respect that Reagan and Bush were President.

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    I hope Putin knows that if he even detonated a nuclear weapon he would be attacked by the entire armed world.... Not only that but if he launched one at the US it would be immediately shot down...

    So yeah, that fool can make all the threats he wants but he damn well knows he can't make good on them without destroying his disgusting USSR wannabe state.

    Besides, he probably doesn't even know where half of his nuclear arms are located after the collapse of the Soviet Union... Half of their munitions and other weaponry was sold on the black market after the collapse and I wouldn't be shocked if the US bought and destroyed a lot of it just to ensure it didn't fall into the wrong hands.

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    Not a cop out. The world does not respect democrat presidents and they were made to respect that Reagan and Bush were President.
    Because democrat presidents are weak and make idol threats - the only ones I can think of in recent history that actually had balls were Clinton and Kennedy, but Kennedy wouldn't even be a democrat in todays political arena.

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    Re: Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Putin is an idiot if he thinks he's going to light off a nuke, and live.
    Maybe he is so much a believer he don't care.

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