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The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

MildSteel

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Well, here we go. Let's see where are this Ukraine and sanctions stuff leads. Just remember folks, this was brought to you by Victoria Nuland.

ZEW German Investor Confidence Collapse - Business Insider

Confidence in Germany is crumbling.

The ZEW investor confidence survey index plunged to 44.3 in August from 61.8 a month ago. This was much worse than the 54.0 expected by economists.

To make things worse, the expectations index crashed to 8.6 from 27.1. This was the lowest reading since December 2012. Economists were expecting 17.0.

"In one line: Grim, as slump in investor sentiment deepens," said Pantheon Economics' Claus Vistesen. "Given the recent sharp drawdown in equities, a drop in sentiment was expected, but the decline was larger than anticipated, reinforcing downside risk to the economy."

Some of this deterioration is likely due to the escalating conflict with Russia, which recently imposed a ban on food imports from the European Union.

"We expect the escalation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict as well as the persisting political turmoil in the Middle East to have a negative impact on the market environment," said Henkel CEO Kasper Rorsted earlier Tuesday. Based in Dusseldorf, Henkel supplies the world with a variety of consumer goods ranging from laundry detergent to toothpaste.

The economic data out of Germany has been astonishingly bad this month, highlighted by sharp drops in industrial production and factory orders.

"All Europe has been affected by these tensions as well as by the stalling of the German economy," said Cumberland Adviors' Bill Witherell on Friday. "The Italian economy, for example, appears to be slipping into recession. The French economy also has failed to establish sustainable growth. While the Spanish economy is seen as having been transformed by its structural reforms, industrial production in Spain fell by -0.8% month-to-month in June, following a -0.6% drop in May."

"The German ZEW survey suggests the euro-area economy will continue to slow through the first half of next year," said Bloomberg economists David Powell and Niraj Shah. "That will provide ammunition for the proponents of quantitative easing at the European Central Bank."
 
Well, here we go. Let's see where are this Ukraine and sanctions stuff leads. Just remember folks, this was brought to you by Victoria Nuland.

ZEW German Investor Confidence Collapse - Business Insider

That would not surprise me, if the EU economy slows. German export levels are unsustainable and the the debt crisis is not over. The Euro is slowing adjustments and keeping unemployment high around the continent. The external shock of the sanctions will be difficult to catch even if China rebounds. But it is not Nuland's fault that the EU flubbed the treaty with Ukraine and turned demonstrations into civil unrest or war. She did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy supplies. . It is the EU's new partner that is shelling and bombing its citizens. And do not forget that Germany recently passed a law that allows it to now deploy its military against citizens domestically, which was absolutely illegal until then.
 
That would not surprise me, if the EU economy slows. German export levels are unsustainable and the the debt crisis is not over. The Euro is slowing adjustments and keeping unemployment high around the continent. The external shock of the sanctions will be difficult to catch even if China rebounds. But it is not Nuland's fault that the EU flubbed the treaty with Ukraine and turned demonstrations into civil unrest or war. She did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy supplies. . It is the EU's new partner that is shelling and bombing its citizens. And do not forget that Germany recently passed a law that allows it to now deploy its military against citizens domestically, which was absolutely illegal until then.


Germany only has itself to blame.

They decided to dive head first into a STUPID green energy revolution thats led to the average German paying 300 percent more for their energy than the average American.

Now their air is dirtier than it was before they shut down their nuke plants because they have to burn TONS of coal to make up for the lags that are inherant to wind and solar power generation.
 
Germany only has itself to blame.

They decided to dive head first into a STUPID green energy revolution thats led to the average German paying 300 percent more for their energy than the average American.

Now their air is dirtier than it was before they shut down their nuke plants because they have to burn TONS of coal to make up for the lags that are inherant to wind and solar power generation.

People are funny sometimes.
 
That would not surprise me, if the EU economy slows. German export levels are unsustainable and the the debt crisis is not over. The Euro is slowing adjustments and keeping unemployment high around the continent. The external shock of the sanctions will be difficult to catch even if China rebounds. But it is not Nuland's fault that the EU flubbed the treaty with Ukraine and turned demonstrations into civil unrest or war. She did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy supplies. . It is the EU's new partner that is shelling and bombing its citizens. And do not forget that Germany recently passed a law that allows it to now deploy its military against citizens domestically, which was absolutely illegal until then.

Nuland did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy, however she provoked this conflict, knowing full well Germany's dependence of Russian energy, by fomenting protests and against Yanukovich and threatening people like Akhmetov.
 
Nuland did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy, however she provoked this conflict, knowing full well Germany's dependence of Russian energy, by fomenting protests and against Yanukovich and threatening people like Akhmetov.

You are absolutely right about Nuland's not having had anything to do with Germany's having made itself dependent on Russian energy. Where you are not totally right is with the way the Ukraine thing developed. The foment was pushed by EU countries not last from Germany. The politicians and media were quite vocal and that boxer was continuously going and coming to Ukraine and talking with German politicians and being talked up as a heavy weight candidate to take Y's place.

of course this was long after the EU had kick started the process at the end of which will be a destroyed country.
 
Germany only has itself to blame.

They decided to dive head first into a STUPID green energy revolution thats led to the average German paying 300 percent more for their energy than the average American.

Now their air is dirtier than it was before they shut down their nuke plants because they have to burn TONS of coal to make up for the lags that are inherant to wind and solar power generation.

Is coal a long-term energy choice for Germany?
 
Is coal a long-term energy choice for Germany?


Why would they be building expensive coal fired plants if it wasn't ?

I can tell you whats NOT a long term energy choice for Germany.

Wind and Solar.
 
You are absolutely right about Nuland's not having had anything to do with Germany's having made itself dependent on Russian energy. Where you are not totally right is with the way the Ukraine thing developed. The foment was pushed by EU countries not last from Germany. The politicians and media were quite vocal and that boxer was continuously going and coming to Ukraine and talking with German politicians and being talked up as a heavy weight candidate to take Y's place.

of course this was long after the EU had kick started the process at the end of which will be a destroyed country.

I didn't say Nuland was the only one fomenting protest. Obviously that's not true. But she did spearhead the thing, and if it had not been for her threats against Akhmetov, the protests would not have gone anywhere.
 
I didn't say Nuland was the only one fomenting protest. Obviously that's not true. But she did spearhead the thing, and if it had not been for her threats against Akhmetov, the protests would not have gone anywhere.

The impression I got over here is seemingly quite different that yours. The opposition was being supported at least from Germany and probably the EU Parliament, if I understood Schultz correctly, in its stand against the Russian trade area and for the EU treaty long before the thing became to a head shortly before signing date.
 
The impression I got over here is seemingly quite different that yours. The opposition was being supported at least from Germany and probably the EU Parliament, if I understood Schultz correctly, in its stand against the Russian trade area and for the EU treaty long before the thing became to a head shortly before signing date.

Like I said, that whole thing didn't take off until Nuland threatened Akhmetov. He controlled an influential bloc of MPs in their Parliament. When that bloc abandoned Yanukovych, that was the end.
 
Here's an interesting opinion piece

Europe's Economy Is Broken

Investors were expecting bad numbers, but not this bad: Europe's economies stalled in the second quarter, new figures show. How much longer will Europe's policy makers just stand there?

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. and the U.K. have seen output grow more slowly than in previous recoveries. That's nothing to boast about. Still, six years on, gross domestic product is higher in both countries than it was at the pre-crisis peak. Europe's output remains 2.4 percent below that benchmark. And the gap isn't closing.

All three of the euro area's biggest economies -- Germany, France and Italy -- are failing. Germany's output actually fell in the second quarter. So did Italy's, for the second consecutive quarter. (Whether this is a new recession for Italy or a continuation of the old one is debatable.) The European Central Bank currently forecasts a rise in euro-area output of 1 percent this year. Expect that to be revised down next month.
...................
 
Something else on Europe's economy

[url="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11038183/Europe-risks-deeper-economic-crisis-as-Russia-buckles-and-defaults-mount-in-Ukraine.html]Europe risks deeper economic crisis as Russia buckles and defaults mount in Ukraine[/url]

German bond yields plummeted to record lows and stock markets sold off across the world after Ukraine and Russia came to the brink of war, threatening to set off a financial shock and push Europe into deep recession.

Flight to safety sent yields on German 10-year Bunds tumbling to 0.97pc after Ukraine said its artillery had destroyed a “significant” part of a Russian armoured column that crossed the border into the Donbass. Yields on two-year notes turned sharply negative, implying that large investors are willing to pay the German state to look after their money.

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the crisis had reached danger point, but stopped short of calling it an invasion. “I can confirm that last night we saw a Russian incursion, crossing of the Ukrainian border,” he said.

European foreign ministers warned that they would tighten the sanctions noose yet further unless Russia draws back. “Any unilateral military actions on the part of the Russian Federation in Ukraine under any pretext, including humanitarian, will be considered by the European Union as a blatant violation of international law,” it said.

The DAX index of equities in Frankfurt buckled in the last minutes before the market closed, ending the day down 1.4pc, and down 10pc since early July. The VIX volatility index surged 11pc. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries dropped to a fourteen-month low of 2.33pc, while the DOW was off 114 points in early trading, with heavy falls for Russian stocks listed in New York.
...................
he escalating clash is now haunting the European economy, already on the brink of fresh recession, with a string of southern states in debt-deflation. Italy has collapsed back into a triple-dip recession, and Germany is contracting. Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Economic Research Institute (DIW) warned of “technical recession” after manufacturing orders to the rest of the eurozone fell 10.4pc.

Gabriel Sterne from Oxford Economics warned that a full-blown conflict in the Eastern Ukraine could lop 2pc off eurozone GDP over the next two years through trade damage and financial channels, with a contraction of 0.5pc in 2015. “The markets have been far too sanguine about the whole crisis,” he said.

Mr Stern said Ukraine’s economy is likely to shrink by 8pc this year. He warned that there is now a 50pc chance of default on the country’s external debts, partly owed to Russian institutions and banks. This would send shock through the European financial system, and beyond. Franklin Templeton, the global asset group, held $7.3bn of Ukrainian bonds at the end of 2013, insisting that the country was in a “sweet spot” and would nurture good relations with Russia.
 
Nuland did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy, however she provoked this conflict, knowing full well Germany's dependence of Russian energy, by fomenting protests and against Yanukovich and threatening people like Akhmetov.

If one medium level bureaucrat can bring down the most powerful nation in Europe then any collapse was probably inevitable anyway. But when have Europeans ever blamed themselves for their own misfortunes?
 
Something else on Europe's economy

[url="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11038183/Europe-risks-deeper-economic-crisis-as-Russia-buckles-and-defaults-mount-in-Ukraine.html]Europe risks deeper economic crisis as Russia buckles and defaults mount in Ukraine[/url]

Have they blamed Karl Rove yet?
 
If one medium level bureaucrat can bring down the most powerful nation in Europe then any collapse was probably inevitable anyway. But when have Europeans ever blamed themselves for their own misfortunes?

She didn't do it alone, she spearheaded the activity that led to the fall of Yanukovych.

Few people have the courage enough to face the truth and blame themselves for their own misfortune, IF they are actually to blame.
 
We know that Germany has been the economic engine that has been sustaining a great part of the EU with it's productivity and exports. It's because of this that a number of the smaller economies were bailed out during the recession and financial bubble explosion. In fact, isn't it true that many EU economies are still on Germany funded life-support?

This being the case, and now Germany's economy under threat from the Russia / Ukraine / EU crisis and sanctions, how are the Germany supported economies going to fare? Are they going to back slide back into recession or have their recoveries go anemic?

I'm thinking likely so. So Russia and Putin, and their adventurism has brought the next recession / financial stress not only on their our country, Russia, but also on the EU.

This needs to be resolved, and resolved quickly. It would seem to make sense to double and / or triple the level of the sanctions on the short term, and forcing this conflict to a speedy close, before those who are dependent on the Russian LPG experience the coming Winter. Let's face it, Russia is hardly on solid financial ground, and would likely be forced to cave in within a few short months, should the sanctions be severe enough.
 
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Why would they be building expensive coal fired plants if it wasn't ?

I can tell you whats NOT a long term energy choice for Germany.

Wind and Solar.

Can you say "nuclear"? Solar power has boosted the German economy well past expectations. Roosevelt and Truman cohorts taught those Germans pretty well how to run an economy, and they already knew that "free trade" was bogus. Now, you want to look at our economy (U.S.) and tell me what you think? Ever heard of Alexander Hamilton and his trade policies (whose economic policies our Founding Fathers adhered to)? And why Jefferson hated him so much?

It wasn't so that you could ostensibly build coal factories in Germany.
 
We know that Germany has been the economic engine that has been sustaining a great part of the EU with it's productivity and exports. It's because of this that a number of the smaller economies were bailed out during the recession and financial bubble explosion. In fact, isn't it true that many EU economies are still on Germany funded life-support?

This being the case, and now Germany's economy under threat from the Russia / Ukraine / EU crisis and sanctions, how are the Germany supported economies going to fare? Are they going to back slide back into recession or have their recoveries go anemic?

I'm thinking likely so. So Russia and Putin, and their adventurism has brought the next recession / financial stress not only on their our country, Russia, but also on the EU.

This needs to be resolved, and resolved quickly. It would seem to make sense to double and / or triple the level of the sanctions on the short term, and forcing this conflict to a speedy close, before those who are dependent on the Russian LPG experience the coming Winter. Let's face it, Russia is hardly on solid financial ground, and would likely be forced to cave in within a few short months, should the sanctions be severe enough.

George Soros has gone on record saying that Germany will be in recession by September, which will make life difficult for the countries that depend on them to keep the EU train moving. He faults them for not aggressively pushing QE, but I sure don't see how that's a long-term solution. Our Fed has used QE to try and prop up our economy, but look at the panic which ensues when they hint they may scale back. As nearly as I can figure, only the big banks benefit from QE - so what agenda does Soros have, other than one-world-government, with he and a few others at the top making all the decisions for everyone worldwide?

Greetings, Erik. :2wave:
 
She didn't do it alone, she spearheaded the activity that led to the fall of Yanukovych.

Few people have the courage enough to face the truth and blame themselves for their own misfortune, IF they are actually to blame.

I feel confident that Victoria Nuwell, if I have her name right, will be quite impressed that she was able to bring down an entire continent on her own. It will be a story for her grandchildren.
 
Can you say "nuclear"? Solar power has boosted the German economy well past expectations. Roosevelt and Truman cohorts taught those Germans pretty well how to run an economy, and they already knew that "free trade" was bogus. Now, you want to look at our economy (U.S.) and tell me what you think? Ever heard of Alexander Hamilton and his trade policies (whose economic policies our Founding Fathers adhered to)? And why Jefferson hated him so much?

It wasn't so that you could ostensibly build coal factories in Germany.


LOL !!!

Are you serious ? Solar is a joke, its ALWAYS been a joke.

The German Finance Minister just declared it a complete failure.

Germany's own Government had to admit what a STUPID iniative it was.

Because Solar and Wind has to be subsidized so heavily by the tax payer, German citizens now pay 300 percent higher utility rates than Americans do.

And now Germany's dependant on Coal to fill in the gaps that come with Solar and Wind.

So for 3 times what we pay for electricity, they get dirtier air.
 
845. Another way to weaken the Euro (7/21/2014)

The energy supply of Europe is heavily dependent on Russia. About one third to 40% of its natural gas and oil are imported from Russia. One important gas pipe is inside Ukraine. If there is a turmoil in Ukraine, the gas supply to Europe will be affected. The economy of Europe would be weakened, so be the Euro. That’s why we saw an upheaval in Ukraine.

Ron Paul Defends Russia After Malaysian Plane Crash
.
By Colin Campbell Jul 21, 2014,

One of those unreported things, Paul claimed in his weekly "Texas Straight Talk" column, was the United States' own responsibility for destabilizing the region. Ukraine is currently embroiled in violent conflict between the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian separatists.

"They will not report that the crisis in Ukraine started late last year, when EU and US-supported protesters plotted the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych.

Without US-sponsored 'regime change,' it is unlikely that hundreds would have been killed in the unrest that followed. Nor would the Malaysian Airlines crash have happened," Paul wrote.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ron-paul-defends-russia-malaysian-151731466.html

Here EU used to be a follower of the US. I think the Europeans have sensed the coming danger the US will bring to them. German is a major power of EU. Recently, German has twice revealed two US spy cases and eventually expelled a CIA intelligence official. That’s unusual.

Germany Demands Top U.S. Intelligence Officer Be Expelled
Posted 10 July 2014 - 07:36 PM

BERLIN — Germany’s relations with the United States plunged to a low point Thursday, with the government demanding the expulsion of the chief American intelligence official stationed here because, it said, Washington has refused to cooperate with German inquiries into United States intelligence activities.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/11/world/europe/germany-expels-top-us-intelligence-officer.html?_r=1

I would say German has sensed (or with its state ability, having the intelligence) that US would sacrifice European’s economy by creating a crisis in Europe. It could be terror attack; or war. The deportation of US intelligence official is just a warning or protest of disagreement. Several days later, Malaysia airliner MH17 was down in Ukraine.
 
LOL !!!

Are you serious ? Solar is a joke, its ALWAYS been a joke.

The German Finance Minister just declared it a complete failure.

Germany's own Government had to admit what a STUPID iniative it was.

Because Solar and Wind has to be subsidized so heavily by the tax payer, German citizens now pay 300 percent higher utility rates than Americans do.

And now Germany's dependant on Coal to fill in the gaps that come with Solar and Wind.

So for 3 times what we pay for electricity, they get dirtier air.

This folly was also carried out in Spain, we just KNOW how well they are doing thanks to all the green jobs and wind farms. BUCKETS OF HOPE AND CHANGE!
 
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