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Thread: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

  1. #11
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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    I didn't say Nuland was the only one fomenting protest. Obviously that's not true. But she did spearhead the thing, and if it had not been for her threats against Akhmetov, the protests would not have gone anywhere.
    The impression I got over here is seemingly quite different that yours. The opposition was being supported at least from Germany and probably the EU Parliament, if I understood Schultz correctly, in its stand against the Russian trade area and for the EU treaty long before the thing became to a head shortly before signing date.

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    The impression I got over here is seemingly quite different that yours. The opposition was being supported at least from Germany and probably the EU Parliament, if I understood Schultz correctly, in its stand against the Russian trade area and for the EU treaty long before the thing became to a head shortly before signing date.
    Like I said, that whole thing didn't take off until Nuland threatened Akhmetov. He controlled an influential bloc of MPs in their Parliament. When that bloc abandoned Yanukovych, that was the end.

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    We need to leave western europe to its eastern neighbors. I say good bye.

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Here's an interesting opinion piece

    Europe's Economy Is Broken

    Investors were expecting bad numbers, but not this bad: Europe's economies stalled in the second quarter, new figures show. How much longer will Europe's policy makers just stand there?

    Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. and the U.K. have seen output grow more slowly than in previous recoveries. That's nothing to boast about. Still, six years on, gross domestic product is higher in both countries than it was at the pre-crisis peak. Europe's output remains 2.4 percent below that benchmark. And the gap isn't closing.

    All three of the euro area's biggest economies -- Germany, France and Italy -- are failing. Germany's output actually fell in the second quarter. So did Italy's, for the second consecutive quarter. (Whether this is a new recession for Italy or a continuation of the old one is debatable.) The European Central Bank currently forecasts a rise in euro-area output of 1 percent this year. Expect that to be revised down next month.
    ...................

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Something else on Europe's economy

    Europe risks deeper economic crisis as Russia buckles and defaults mount in Ukraine

    German bond yields plummeted to record lows and stock markets sold off across the world after Ukraine and Russia came to the brink of war, threatening to set off a financial shock and push Europe into deep recession.

    Flight to safety sent yields on German 10-year Bunds tumbling to 0.97pc after Ukraine said its artillery had destroyed a “significant” part of a Russian armoured column that crossed the border into the Donbass. Yields on two-year notes turned sharply negative, implying that large investors are willing to pay the German state to look after their money.

    NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the crisis had reached danger point, but stopped short of calling it an invasion. “I can confirm that last night we saw a Russian incursion, crossing of the Ukrainian border,” he said.

    European foreign ministers warned that they would tighten the sanctions noose yet further unless Russia draws back. “Any unilateral military actions on the part of the Russian Federation in Ukraine under any pretext, including humanitarian, will be considered by the European Union as a blatant violation of international law,” it said.

    The DAX index of equities in Frankfurt buckled in the last minutes before the market closed, ending the day down 1.4pc, and down 10pc since early July. The VIX volatility index surged 11pc. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries dropped to a fourteen-month low of 2.33pc, while the DOW was off 114 points in early trading, with heavy falls for Russian stocks listed in New York.
    ...................
    he escalating clash is now haunting the European economy, already on the brink of fresh recession, with a string of southern states in debt-deflation. Italy has collapsed back into a triple-dip recession, and Germany is contracting. Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Economic Research Institute (DIW) warned of “technical recession” after manufacturing orders to the rest of the eurozone fell 10.4pc.

    Gabriel Sterne from Oxford Economics warned that a full-blown conflict in the Eastern Ukraine could lop 2pc off eurozone GDP over the next two years through trade damage and financial channels, with a contraction of 0.5pc in 2015. “The markets have been far too sanguine about the whole crisis,” he said.

    Mr Stern said Ukraine’s economy is likely to shrink by 8pc this year. He warned that there is now a 50pc chance of default on the country’s external debts, partly owed to Russian institutions and banks. This would send shock through the European financial system, and beyond. Franklin Templeton, the global asset group, held $7.3bn of Ukrainian bonds at the end of 2013, insisting that the country was in a “sweet spot” and would nurture good relations with Russia.

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    Nuland did not make Germany dependent on Russian energy, however she provoked this conflict, knowing full well Germany's dependence of Russian energy, by fomenting protests and against Yanukovich and threatening people like Akhmetov.
    If one medium level bureaucrat can bring down the most powerful nation in Europe then any collapse was probably inevitable anyway. But when have Europeans ever blamed themselves for their own misfortunes?

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    Have they blamed Karl Rove yet?

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    If one medium level bureaucrat can bring down the most powerful nation in Europe then any collapse was probably inevitable anyway. But when have Europeans ever blamed themselves for their own misfortunes?
    She didn't do it alone, she spearheaded the activity that led to the fall of Yanukovych.

    Few people have the courage enough to face the truth and blame themselves for their own misfortune, IF they are actually to blame.

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    We know that Germany has been the economic engine that has been sustaining a great part of the EU with it's productivity and exports. It's because of this that a number of the smaller economies were bailed out during the recession and financial bubble explosion. In fact, isn't it true that many EU economies are still on Germany funded life-support?

    This being the case, and now Germany's economy under threat from the Russia / Ukraine / EU crisis and sanctions, how are the Germany supported economies going to fare? Are they going to back slide back into recession or have their recoveries go anemic?

    I'm thinking likely so. So Russia and Putin, and their adventurism has brought the next recession / financial stress not only on their our country, Russia, but also on the EU.

    This needs to be resolved, and resolved quickly. It would seem to make sense to double and / or triple the level of the sanctions on the short term, and forcing this conflict to a speedy close, before those who are dependent on the Russian LPG experience the coming Winter. Let's face it, Russia is hardly on solid financial ground, and would likely be forced to cave in within a few short months, should the sanctions be severe enough.
    Last edited by eohrnberger; 08-21-14 at 01:36 PM.
    Disinformation campaign? The Russian collusion meme pushed by the 'news' media, behaving as a political propaganda organ, hell bent to destroy a legitimately elected president to implement his agenda per the votes of the same electorate. Reference The Big Lie Reference Goebbels

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    Re: The Outlook For Germany In One Word: 'Grim'

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Why would they be building expensive coal fired plants if it wasn't ?

    I can tell you whats NOT a long term energy choice for Germany.

    Wind and Solar.
    Can you say "nuclear"? Solar power has boosted the German economy well past expectations. Roosevelt and Truman cohorts taught those Germans pretty well how to run an economy, and they already knew that "free trade" was bogus. Now, you want to look at our economy (U.S.) and tell me what you think? Ever heard of Alexander Hamilton and his trade policies (whose economic policies our Founding Fathers adhered to)? And why Jefferson hated him so much?

    It wasn't so that you could ostensibly build coal factories in Germany.

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