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Election math bodes well for house republicans

US Conservative

US Conservative

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ELECTION MATH BODES WELL FOR HOUSE REPUBLICANS-The GOP enjoys a clear advantage in holding on to - and likely growing - its majority going into the midterms.
Democrats say they expect to make gains in the House, but Republicans have a host of built-in advantages this year, including:

• Recently redrawn districts have resulted in fewer competitive seats.

• Historical midterm-election-year trends indicate a limited Democratic turnout.

• President Obama's waning popularity is part of a political climate suggesting that Democrats cannot expect a "wave" election to turn the tide in their favor.
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Why Democrats can't win back the House

Lots of interesting data, including that low turnout and low approval will hurt the Dems in the senate as well. What this means is that even if the Republicans somehow massively fail (unlikely), things will remain unchanged. Its a push worst case, essentially-and election day is just around the corner.

However, I think the Republicans will win the senate as well, with only 5 seats needed. It will be interesting watching the lamer duck Obama quack like the affleck duck.
 
Kobie said:
The Democrats have virtually no chance of winning back the House.

Senate's pretty much a toss-up.

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate
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The reason for that is because the democrat Klan almost NEVER votes in in the midterms...... I hate progressives but I also hate RINO's but why you think RINO's always gain seats during the midterms??? ...... I'm happy anyways because a RINO is better than a progressive er "Communist.
 
Mr.Nick said:
The reason for that is because the democrat Klan almost NEVER votes in in the midterms...... I hate progressives but I also hate RINO's but why you think RINO's always gain seats during the midterms??? ...... I'm happy anyways because a RINO is better than a progressive er "Communist.
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The Republicans don't always gain seats during the midterms.

2006 midterms: Democrats +31 House seats, +6 Senate seats

"Democrat Klan"? Cute.
 
Kobie said:
The Republicans don't always gain seats during the midterms.

2006 midterms: Democrats +31 House seats, +6 Senate seats

"Democrat Klan"? Cute.
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Well, of course some dems are willing to run out and kill their jobs that rely on supply and demand economics, but in general - democrats er those who aren't paid to vote don't vote during the midterms have no reason to vote.
 
Mr.Nick said:
Well, of course some dems are willing to run out and kill their jobs that rely on supply and demand economics, but in general - democrats er those who aren't paid to vote don't vote during the midterms have no reason to vote.
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:roll:
 
It's called gerry-mandering when one cracks a book and gets some learning .
 
Mr.Nick said:
The reason for that is because the democrat Klan almost NEVER votes in in the midterms...... I hate progressives but I also hate RINO's but why you think RINO's always gain seats during the midterms??? ...... I'm happy anyways because a RINO is better than a progressive er "Communist.
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Well, this time around there's that whole gerrymandering thing helping too.
 
Kobie said:
The Republicans don't always gain seats during the midterms.

2006 midterms: Democrats +31 House seats, +6 Senate seats

"Democrat Klan"? Cute.
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This isn't going to be 2006. No more Bush to blame. 5 seats, piss poor numbers for the dems, its not looking so good.
 
US Conservative said:
This isn't going to be 2006. No more Bush to blame. 5 seats, piss poor numbers for the dems, its not looking so good.
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Christ, nobody said it was. It was a clear response to the inane claim that the GOP "always" picks up seats during midterms.

Nice attempt at refuting an argument nobody was making. F-minus.
 
Kobie said:
Christ, nobody said it was. It was a clear response to the inane claim that the GOP "always" picks up seats during midterms.

Nice attempt at refuting an argument nobody was making. F-minus.
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Think of the irony about lamenting red herrings when you yourself are making a red herring argument.

This november the dems lose. Thats the news.
 
US Conservative said:
Think of the irony about lamenting red herrings when you yourself are making a red herring argument.
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"Red Herring" argument? It was in direct response to another poster, as a refutation of what they were claiming. If I posted it in response to YOU, then MAYBE it could have been considered a red herring. But I didn't. As you'll see, when I quoted a different poster.

US Conservative said:
This november the dems lose. Thats the news.
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The Dems have virtually no chance of taking back the House. The Senate is a tossup.

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate
 
NIMBY said:
It's called gerry-mandering when one cracks a book and gets some learning .
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Oh yeah I 4 got all about that stuff... lol

No, it's not gerrymandering - that is the redrawing of voting district lines (progressive hobby btw).... Whatever tho...

Maybe they should keep the district lines where they're at? Oh yeah.....
 
Kobie said:
Christ, nobody said it was. It was a clear response to the inane claim that the GOP "always" picks up seats during midterms.

Nice attempt at refuting an argument nobody was making. F-minus.
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The party in power almost always loses seats. From what I have read, it looks like the Dems might pick up maybe 2 seats in the House, Republicans keep control. In the Senate, I believe that Republicans will gain the chamber with a 51-49 edge.
 
Kobie said:
Christ, nobody said it was. It was a clear response to the inane claim that the GOP "always" picks up seats during midterms.

Nice attempt at refuting an argument nobody was making. F-minus.
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I never said that.... I said republicans, however that wouldn't even be honest.... It would be more like Libertarians/Tea Party/Republicans....


At least you have multiple choices if you disagree with the "non-progs" while you only have one choice if you agree with the socialists.
 
danarhea said:
The party in power almost always loses seats. From what I have read, it looks like the Dems might pick up maybe 2 seats in the House, Republicans keep control. In the Senate, I believe that Republicans will gain the chamber with a 51-49 edge.
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Dems will lose the Senate...
 
Kobie said:
"Red Herring" argument? It was in direct response to another poster, as a refutation of what they were claiming. If I posted it in response to YOU, then MAYBE it could have been considered a red herring. But I didn't. As you'll see, when I quoted a different poster.



The Dems have virtually no chance of taking back the House. The Senate is a tossup.

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate
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The idiom "red herring" is used to refer to something that misleads or distracts from the relevant or important issue.[1] It may be either a logical fallacy or a literary device that leads readers or characters towards a false conclusion. A red herring might be intentionally used, such as in mystery fiction or as part of a rhetorical strategy (e.g. in politics), or it could be inadvertently used during argumentation as a result of poor logic. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_herring
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You went for
"The Republicans don't always gain seats during the midterms."
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So-rather than recognize the spirit of his comment and continuing the discussion you decided to make it about a red herring. Dont be so easily distracted.

I agree that the dems have no chance of taking back the senate, but the house isn't looking much better and the same factors cited in the op are working against the dems for that as well. If Obama blames everything on the republicans, hows it gonna be in january?
 
I could care less who wins or loses and what the letter next to their name is. What I'm really interested in is the politics in America swinging back to the left and the nutty right-wing boomer domination to take a permanent nap.

It doesn't matter if we mostly win and have a D president and D senate, little to nothing positive gets done when the political climate is a prison.
 
US Conservative said:
Kobie, you hung your hat on a red herring. Going for the So-rather than recognize the spirit of his comment and continuing the discussion you decided to make it about a red herring.
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Now that's what I call a cool story, bro.
 
Mr.Nick said:
The reason for that is because the democrat Klan almost NEVER votes in in the midterms......
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That is because they generally have no clue. In their minds President=King. Congressmen are his underlings, and the rest of the people are his slaves.

Dumocrats simply cannot comprehend a form of government that is not hierarchical. That is also one of the primary reasons they are so obsessed with "class" IMO.
 
danarhea said:
The party in power almost always loses seats. From what I have read, it looks like the Dems might pick up maybe 2 seats in the House, Republicans keep control. In the Senate, I believe that Republicans will gain the chamber with a 51-49 edge.
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Agreed. Even just historically this does not bode well for the dems.
 
Then of course there's always that fly in the ointment called "articles of impeachment".
Bohner can't stop the Tea-nuts from diving into that crazy-car ...and once they do, the house will be the Democrat's for the taking.
 
Verax said:
I could care less who wins or loses and what the letter next to their name is. What I'm really interested in is the politics in America swinging back to the left and the nutty right-wing boomer domination to take a permanent nap.

It doesn't matter if we mostly win and have a D president and D senate, little to nothing positive gets done when the political climate is a prison.
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GeeZ...

"Nutty Right-Wing Politics."

You think Thomas Jefferson was that "bizarre?"

Yeah, there are some RINO's out there, but to even attempt to claim we all fall in that sort of pool is literal insanity.... The majority of "us" are true liberals who stand by the Constitution and Bill of Rights....

I would suggest you learn what the TRUE Conservative party stands for, before you go judging the philosophy....
 
Verax said:
I could care less who wins or loses and what the letter next to their name is. What I'm really interested in is the politics in America swinging back to the left and the nutty right-wing boomer domination to take a permanent nap.

It doesn't matter if we mostly win and have a D president and D senate, little to nothing positive gets done when the political climate is a prison.
Click to expand...

The left considers freedom as a prison, and the boomers children tend to be less liberal than they were.

However, if they can continue to import uneducated and ignorant undocumented democrats, and continue the forcible association of unions, they might keep the ship from tipping for a few more minutes.
 
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