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Thread: Election math bodes well for house republicans

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    I think we will retain our majority in the House and take the Senate barring any catastrophes between now and November. What concerns me is the electoral math for 2016 which doesn't seem very good for us and our slate of would be candidates.
    Agreed about november. 2016 is still a bit far out for me to gauge anything.

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    It will be a mandate. Just buckets of hope and change.
    Well, Dick Cheney considered Bush's narrow win in 2004 a "mandate," so I'm not surprised that you would consider ANY Republican advantage a mandate.
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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kobie View Post
    Well, Dick Cheney considered Bush's narrow win in 2004 a "mandate," so I'm not surprised that you would consider ANY Republican advantage a mandate.
    Well, Obama considered 2012 a mandate.

    And an "advantage" in the polls is not the same as a mandate.

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    Oh yeah I 4 got all about that stuff... lol

    No, it's not gerrymandering - that is the redrawing of voting district lines (progressive hobby btw).... Whatever tho...

    Maybe they should keep the district lines where they're at? Oh yeah.....
    Who controlled more state legislatures after 2010?
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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Although things can change, I believe the GOP majority in the House is probably secure. The Senate is still somewhat of a toss-up, but is probably leaning to a GOP takeover. The GOP nominated some strong candidates, avoiding the caliber that made self-defeating gaffes, and the U.S. public remains unhappy with the nation's direction. Things are not yet cast in stone, but that's my read at this time.

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    ELECTION MATH BODES WELL FOR HOUSE REPUBLICANS-The GOP enjoys a clear advantage in holding on to - and likely growing - its majority going into the midterms.


    Why Democrats can't win back the House

    Lots of interesting data, including that low turnout and low approval will hurt the Dems in the senate as well. What this means is that even if the Republicans somehow massively fail (unlikely), things will remain unchanged. Its a push worst case, essentially-and election day is just around the corner.

    However, I think the Republicans will win the senate as well, with only 5 seats needed. It will be interesting watching the lamer duck Obama quack like the affleck duck.
    Your right that the Democrats have no chance on winning back the house this year. But they do stand a chance of gaining a few seats, they could lose a few also. In the Generic Congressional Poll which the question asked is which party do you want to control congress? The Democrats have a slight advantage as of today, 42.7 to 41.7 for the Republicans. But going district by district the Democrats have 21 house seats that are vulnerable to a Republican takeover while the Republicans have 17 seats that the Democrats stand a good chance of gaining.

    So the bottom line is either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats. Although the House is safe for Republicans, the possibility they could lose seats in the 6th year of a president’s term is close to unprecedented. The average pick up for the party out of power is between 25-30 seats. This is because the Republican Party is viewed more unfavorably than the Democratic Party. Only 29% of the electorate view the Republican Party favorably while 41% view the Democratic Party favorably.

    Here is the breakdown by party

    Do you view the Republican Party favorably or unfavorably?
    8/6/14 All favorably 29% unfavorably 62%
    REPUBLICANS 66% favorable 30% unfavorable
    DEMOCRATS 8% favorable 89% unfavorable
    INDEPENDENTS 24% favorable 61% unfavorable

    Do you view the Democratic Party favorably or unfavorably?
    8/6/14 All favorably 41% unfavorably 50%
    REPUBLICANS 10% favorable 86 unfavorable
    DEMOCRATS 82% favorable 15% unfavorable
    INDEPENDENTS 33% favorable 53% unfavorable

    By the way the Republicans need 6 seats, a gain of 5 will do them no good leaving the senate tied at 50-50 with VP Biden casting the tie breaking votes.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    As if Obama needs Congress to pass his executive orders anyway....

    We have a king. Who needs a Congress?

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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Buck Ewer View Post
    Then of course there's always that fly in the ointment called "articles of impeachment".
    Bohner can't stop the Tea-nuts from diving into that crazy-car ...and once they do, the house will be the Democrat's for the taking.
    There is a whole laundry list of Obama's failures and you hang your hat on "impeachment" to win back the House.
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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    There is a whole laundry list of Obama's failures and you hang your hat on "impeachment" to win back the House.
    i gotta thank the republicans for providing the democrats opportunities to motivate the base and fundraise
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    Re: Election math bodes well for house republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    i gotta thank the republicans for providing the democrats opportunities to motivate the base and fundraise
    Wont matter as long as the media for the most part is pro GOP as in they dont call the GOP out on their bull****, then the chance of the Dems gaining the upper ground in districts is slim to none. Only chance the Dems have is Senate wise and of course the White House. The GOP has the House locked up for a long time, unless there is a massive swing in states to the Dems and I dont see that happening with the dirty tricks of the GOP.
    PeteEU

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