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Thread: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

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    U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    CNN reported:

    New data released Wednesday show the U.S. economy bounced back in the spring, growing at a 4% annual pace in the second quarter. That was even better than the forecast of 3% growth, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by CNNMoney.

    After terrible start to the year, the U.S. economy bounces back - Jul. 30, 2014

    The full GDP report can be found at: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...dp2q14_adv.pdf

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Means nothing...wait for the final revision (then few will pay attention).

    They dropped Q1 from +0.1% initially all the way down to -2.1% in th final revision...clearly (IMO) they are either incompetent and/or being influenced.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    I've never understood why the government publishes data that they are not sure about. It is as though they are in a hurry to mess things up. Usually, they take their time messing things up.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Means nothing...wait for the final revision (then few will pay attention).

    They dropped Q1 from +0.1% initially all the way down to -2.1% in th final revision...clearly (IMO) they are either incompetent and/or being influenced.
    Yep, expect glowingly good reports through the election cycle.
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Means nothing...wait for the final revision (then few will pay attention).

    They dropped Q1 from +0.1% initially all the way down to -2.1% in th final revision...clearly (IMO) they are either incompetent and/or being influenced.
    The revision process is transparent so you can actually see how everything is calculated if you want.

    When BEA calculates the advance estimate, the Bureau doesn’t yet have complete source data, with the largest gaps in data related to the third month of the quarter. In particular, the advance estimate is lacking complete source data on inventories, trade, and consumer spending on services. Therefore, BEA must make assumptions for these missing pieces based in part on past trends. As part of this process, we publish a detailed technical note that lays out the assumptions made for a particular estimate. BEA also publishes detailed materials on the standardized procedures and methods used in the various vintages of the GDP estimates.

    As new and more complete data become available, that information is incorporated into the second and third GDP estimates. About 45 percent of the advance estimate is based on initial or early estimates from various monthly and quarterly surveys that are subject to revision for various reasons, including late respondents that are eventually incorporated into the survey results. Another roughly 14 percent of the advance estimate is based on historical trends.

    By the second GDP estimate, we have new data for the third month and revised data for earlier months. By the third estimate, a lot more data is available so that only 17 percent of the GDP estimate is based on information from the first set of monthly and quarterly surveys.

    Revising Economic Indicators: Here
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    Yep, expect glowingly good reports through the election cycle.
    Agreed.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    CNN reported:

    New data released Wednesday show the U.S. economy bounced back in the spring, growing at a 4% annual pace in the second quarter. That was even better than the forecast of 3% growth, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by CNNMoney.

    After terrible start to the year, the U.S. economy bounces back - Jul. 30, 2014

    The full GDP report can be found at: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...dp2q14_adv.pdf
    In other words the economy is extremely bumpy and at 2% growth less than impressive. But we are better than Greece.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    In other words the economy is extremely bumpy and at 2% growth less than impressive. But we are better than Greece.
    2% growth wouldn't be bad considering that the historic average since the 70's has been 3%.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    In other words the economy is extremely bumpy and at 2% growth less than impressive. But we are better than Greece.
    I'll take growth. Any type. +0.1% ain't great, but it isn't moving backwards.
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    2% growth wouldn't be bad considering that the historic average since the 70's has been 3%.
    It would, if we weren't coming out of a severe bump and we were Old Europeans. As it is? Well, it is better than shrinking again.

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