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Thread: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

  1. #81
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, it is premature to suggest that the 4.0% annualized growth in Q2 marks the start of a sustained period of faster economic growth e.g., annualized real growth consistently above 3%.

    The "makeup" as you termed it reflected demand that had been deferred, in large part, for the temporary factors that led to a very bad first quarter. Weather was one factor, but not the only one. Aside from non-weather-related issues, some slowing following the robust Q4 activity (3.5% annualized rate) might also have contributed to the bad Q1 outcome.

    Over the past year, GDP has grown 2.4%. The average annual growth rate since the end of the recession has been 2.1%. At least for me, it is too soon to be sure that economic growth is now moving onto a path that will see it accelerate materially from its post-recession average. Barring subsequent data, I still believe the narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth remains more likely than the start of a period of sustained robust growth, at least through the rest of this year.
    That growth has been with the aid of artificially low interest rates and over $12 trillion in government/Fed money thrown at the economy since the recession began.

    When the economy can stand on it's own without these crutches, only then is it 'healthy'.

    And IMO, that will never happen.

    I believe that the first Q the Fed ends QE once and for all and starts to raise interest rates the economy will collapse (how far, I do not know).

    I believe the economy is a mess...with the Fed indirectly propping up equities (and making the rich, richer) whilst the rest of the economy outsources to other countries and trades in quality full time jobs for lower paying part time ones because the Fed/federal government refuses to allow prices to reach their 'natural' reset levels from the skewed prices just before the housing bubble burst.

    It is the Mercedes-McDonald's recovery...and it's powered by debt (as opposed to solid fundamentals).

    And IMO, it's a mirage.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Lovebug View Post
    Means nothing? You'll be surprised to know that good news has quite an effect on spending habits. Sadly, it seems that too many profit by focusing on the negative, making a grand living actually.
    Means nothing as in I do not believe it is remotely accurate and will be revised significantly downwards in a few months.

    I assumed that was obvious.

    Maybe not.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    Yep, expect glowingly good reports through the election cycle.
    And expect those on the other side of the aisle and those that despise Obama to poo poo any good news.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    Yes and we've had touches of it. Just recently General Motors was taken from the stockholders and operated by the government. The company was freed after the debt was forgiven but it was a socialized company for a while. I read never ending hatred of corporations from the left on this forum and the desire to have the government get involved with how they are managed. It is horrifying to me. Definitely trending toward socialism. Hopefully we can reverse the trend.
    : Same type of thinking has ruined many countries' economies over the years, as history has shown us. Think Russia and other countries who have learned the hard way - Shoddy goods that no one wants to buy.

    Why anyone would think we could be the first to beat the odds is puzzling to me. It destroys incentive to innovate to stay competitive; it takes away the worker's desire to do the best job they can - why bother when ideas for improvement won't even get a hearing; and it squelches the human spirit to be thought of as nothing more than a human robot with no brains of their own!

    I cite the ACA as a good example of what government interference in the free market can look like. Tweaks may have been needed, but to overturn an entire sector of our economy was not needed, IMO. Time will tell what the result will be, but looking at countries with socialized medicine today should give us a clue on what to expect - higher cost with lowered standard of health care for those who do not have the means to buy better for themselves.

    Greetings, fmw.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Cherry picking select indicators on a month by month basis while ignoring long term trends is pretty close to useless. It's fairly apparent that you're not interested in looking at any positive indicators that run contrary to your own beliefs.
    LOL...so you are posting in a thread about the latest government numbers PLUS you have commented in other threads (many times?) that were referencing the latest economic numbers.

    http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-par...post1063546766

    Yet, you call using the last official government numbers on employment 'cherry picking'?

    Can you spell 'hypocrisy'?

    So, for the record everyone, a351 now considers using the latest official government statistics about major areas of the economy (employment, in this case) as 'cherry picking'.


    It has long been clear to me that your mind is completely closed on this issue and further discussion with you on this would be a huge waste of my time.

    You are on my ignore list...life is too short to waste on the closed minded.


    Good day.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    : Same type of thinking has ruined many countries' economies over the years, as history has shown us. Think Russia and other countries who have learned the hard way - Shoddy goods that no one wants to buy.

    Why anyone would think we could be the first to beat the odds is puzzling to me. It destroys incentive to innovate to stay competitive; it takes away the worker's desire to do the best job they can - why bother when ideas for improvement won't even get a hearing; and it squelches the human spirit to be thought of as nothing more than a human robot with no brains of their own!

    I cite the ACA as a good example of what government interference in the free market can look like. Tweaks may have been needed, but to overturn an entire sector of our economy was not needed, IMO. Time will tell what the result will be, but looking at countries with socialized medicine today should give us a clue on what to expect - higher cost with lowered standard of health care for those who do not have the means to buy better for themselves.

    Greetings, fmw.
    Greetings, Polgara. I wish I could get the government to run all of my competitors' businesses. That would certainly give me a leg up. It's hard to imagine where the socialist tendencies arised in today's youth. It certainly wasn't from the history of american business.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    The General Motors bailout and subsequent control by government is an example of an experiment in socialism. It didn't last long.
    Does the "left" really want the government to start running corporations, or are they simply opposed to the corporations running the government?
    It must be the former since business definitely doesn't run the government.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    It must be the former since business definitely doesn't run the government.
    Don't be so sure.
    Corporations have the money it takes to keep campaigns going and lobbyists employed. The average person does not.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    Don't be so sure.
    Corporations have the money it takes to keep campaigns going and lobbyists employed. The average person does not.
    I never said the average person runs the government.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    I never said the average person runs the government.
    No, you said that corporations do not.

    So, just who do you think does run the government?
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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