"I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."
Even as the sharp contraction was reported, there was subsequent data from April, May, and June indicating that the contraction had been temporary and that the economy was rebounding. Economists had information that grounded their assessment that the contraction was temporary. Economic forecasts for Q2 generally called for real annualized growth in the 3%-4% range. Indeed, I mentioned such forecasts in the earlier thread concerning the Q1 contraction.
http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063456160 (U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681])
Now that the Q2 data is out, even considering future revisions, it is clear that the Q1 contraction was a temporary dip. The narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth has been reaffirmed.
Eventually, there will be another recession. For now, that's not the case.
Texas Winters are mild BTW.
That was the absurd narrative being bandied around by supporters of the President as they continued to mitigate away the failures of their chosen ideology.
Truth is poverty rates have increased , we've doubled the number of people who're dependant on Food stamps and disability and millions more continue to struggle with part time only positions.
The reason why I don't have much respect for people like you is you would pick and chose economic data to construct a facade that protects a political ideology first.
That is you've chosen to ignore the millions of struggling Americans because to acknowledge their CONTINUED plight would mean acknowledging the failures of this administration. A facade of economic prosperity or even growth is more important to those on the left than truth just because they lack the integrity and humility to admit they're wrong.
Problem is, how do you help those people wiithout a honest and objective analysis of our economic issues ? How do you determine what WORKS economically and what DOESN'T WORK when you people insist upon twisting the data to suite your political position ? Its pretty cold hearted.
Do you even CARE what works and what doesn't and wouldn't you just rather have the poor and the dependant keep their mouths shut ?
Wouldn't it be advantageous if we stopped keeping track on who collects unemployment, food stamps, welfare , disability and who's under or unemployed ?
Last edited by Fenton; 07-30-14 at 03:57 PM.
" If no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else ? "
Political factors are just one element in shaping the nation’s economic performance. If political factors were the leading explanation, the nation could experience continual robust recession-free growth, as the public being self-interested would continually choose the policy makers who knew how to manage the economy. Any other choice would be irrational. Moreover, when it came to economic policy, there would be interparty consensus. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
Politics plays some role in the whole scheme of things, but pundits greatly overstate that role. Upon President Reagan’s taking office, numerous Democrats argued that the economy was doomed (and claimed that their narrative had credibility during the 1981-82 downturn). When President Obama took office, numerous Republicans held similarly gloomy views. Both political narratives proved incorrect.
Quite frankly, I could care less who is in the White House when discussing the economy. I’m interested in discussing the state of the economy as it really is and its direction. If one wants to credit/blame the President, that’s a separate matter.
With respect to the Q1 economic performance and what ultimately proved to be a temporary contraction—and economists nailed the temporary nature of that contraction—was, in part, due to weather-related disruptions. It was not solely due to bad weather.
One saw references to weather in preceding economic reports and also the Fed’s own discussion of economic conditions. The weather-related explanation was not something that was suddenly introduced when the GDP data was revised to show a significant quarterly contraction.
There were some additional factors, too. For example, China underwent a growth pause of sorts where its growth fell below the levels it had been sustaining in recent years. Since then, China has experienced a pickup in its growth rate.
Moreover, I’m not ignoring “millions of struggling Americans.” For example, I’ve also posted data concerning longer-term unemployment, broader measures of unemployment, and information about people not in the labor force and compared them to the pre-recession figures. Although June saw some nice improvements, those figures remain generally well above pre-recession figures.
http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063481874 (US economy adds 288,000 jobs in June)
Finally, I do care what works/does not. I read through the empirical data and the many reports that are regularly published. The factors impacting the economy are numerous and their interactions highly complex. Not all of those interactions are well understood or well-modeled, leaving large areas of uncertainty. Not surprisingly, economic forecasts beyond the shortest-term ones are often subject to large error.