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Thread: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    In other words, the advance estimate is basically worthless. My expectation is that these numbers will be revised downward substantially as were the Q1 numbers.
    lol yes, because the numbers aren't actuals, that means they're worthless. Estimates are completely pointless and useless and mean nothing at all.
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    " Argue the facts " ?

    Uhm, President Snow posted data minus the context needed to qualify it accurately as "positive economic news " and I suspect he did that on purpose.

    If you need a more detailed explanation as to what I'm referring to I defer to DA60s post in this thread.
    If one recalls, following last month's gloomy Q1 revision (-2.9% figure revised now to -2.1%), there was speculation that the economy was sinking into a new recession. I revisited things to see how that speculation (not shared among economists) held up.

    Even as the sharp contraction was reported, there was subsequent data from April, May, and June indicating that the contraction had been temporary and that the economy was rebounding. Economists had information that grounded their assessment that the contraction was temporary. Economic forecasts for Q2 generally called for real annualized growth in the 3%-4% range. Indeed, I mentioned such forecasts in the earlier thread concerning the Q1 contraction.

    http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063456160

    Now that the Q2 data is out, even considering future revisions, it is clear that the Q1 contraction was a temporary dip. The narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth has been reaffirmed.

    Eventually, there will be another recession. For now, that's not the case.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    In other words, the advance estimate is basically worthless. My expectation is that these numbers will be revised downward substantially as were the Q1 numbers.
    Advance estimates provide some insight. Obviously, they are subject to greater degree of uncertainty than the final estimate, but they do provide some useful information. Although the final Q2 figure is likely to differ from the 4.0% figure reported today, today's growth report is sufficiently strong that one can now conclude that the Q1 data did not suggest the beginning of a recession. Hence, the Fed's current monetary policy path and gentle reduction in QE will likely be maintained at its next meeting (September 16-17).

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    If one recalls, following last month's gloomy Q1 revision (-2.9% figure revised now to -2.1%), there was speculation that the economy was sinking into a new recession. I revisited things to see how that speculation (not shared among economists) held up.

    Even as the sharp contraction was reported, there was subsequent data from April, May, and June indicating that the contraction had been temporary and that the economy was rebounding. Economists had information that grounded their assessment that the contraction was temporary. Economic forecasts for Q2 generally called for real annualized growth in the 3%-4% range. Indeed, I mentioned such forecasts in the earlier thread concerning the Q1 contraction.

    http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063456160

    Now that the Q2 data is out, even considering future revisions, it is clear that the Q1 contraction was a temporary dip. The narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth has been reaffirmed.

    Eventually, there will be another recession. For now, that's not the case.
    A National 3 percent " temporary dip " because of inclement weather ?

    Texas Winters are mild BTW.

    That was the absurd narrative being bandied around by supporters of the President as they continued to mitigate away the failures of their chosen ideology.

    Truth is poverty rates have increased , we've doubled the number of people who're dependant on Food stamps and disability and millions more continue to struggle with part time only positions.

    The reason why I don't have much respect for people like you is you would pick and chose economic data to construct a facade that protects a political ideology first.

    That is you've chosen to ignore the millions of struggling Americans because to acknowledge their CONTINUED plight would mean acknowledging the failures of this administration. A facade of economic prosperity or even growth is more important to those on the left than truth just because they lack the integrity and humility to admit they're wrong.

    Problem is, how do you help those people wiithout a honest and objective analysis of our economic issues ? How do you determine what WORKS economically and what DOESN'T WORK when you people insist upon twisting the data to suite your political position ? Its pretty cold hearted.

    Do you even CARE what works and what doesn't and wouldn't you just rather have the poor and the dependant keep their mouths shut ?

    Wouldn't it be advantageous if we stopped keeping track on who collects unemployment, food stamps, welfare , disability and who's under or unemployed ?
    Last edited by Fenton; 07-30-14 at 05:57 PM.
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    Yep, expect glowingly good reports through the election cycle.
    Yeah, remember that breathtaking growth figure of .1 percent before the 2012 cycle? The BEA is clearly in the pocket of Obama.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    Not coming out of a recession it ain't.
    There was no recession though. This is supported by the todays report and robust job growth in the time since.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    What?

    Last month 523K full jobs were eliminated - while 799K part time jobs were created...for a probable net loss in hours worked.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    On what planet is less hours worked and over 1/2 a million jobs lost an improvement?
    Cherry picking select indicators on a month by month basis while ignoring long term trends is pretty close to useless. It's fairly apparent that you're not interested in looking at any positive indicators that run contrary to your own beliefs.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    CNN reported:

    New data released Wednesday show the U.S. economy bounced back in the spring, growing at a 4% annual pace in the second quarter. That was even better than the forecast of 3% growth, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by CNNMoney.

    After terrible start to the year, the U.S. economy bounces back - Jul. 30, 2014

    The full GDP report can be found at: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...dp2q14_adv.pdf
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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    A National 3 percent " temporary dip " because of inclement weather ?

    Texas Winters are mild BTW.

    That was the absurd narrative being bandied around by supporters of the President as they continued to mitigate away the failures of their chosen ideology.

    Truth is poverty rates have increased , we've doubled the number of people who're dependant on Food stamps and disability and millions more continue to struggle with part time only positions.

    The reason why I don't have much respect for people like you is you would pick and chose economic data to construct a facade that protects a political ideology first.

    That is you've chosen to ignore the millions of struggling Americans because to acknowledge their CONTINUED plight would mean acknowledging the failures of this administration. A facade of economic prosperity or even growth is more important to those on the left than truth just because they lack the integrity and humility to admit they're wrong.

    Problem is, how do you help those people wiithout a honest and objective analysis of our economic issues ? How do you determine what WORKS economically and what DOESN'T WORK when you people insist upon twisting the data to suite your political position ? Its pretty cold hearted.

    Do you even CARE what works and what doesn't and wouldn't you just rather have the poor and the dependant keep their mouths shut ?

    Wouldn't it be advantageous if we stopped keeping track on who collects unemployment, food stamps, welfare , disability and who's under or unemployed ?
    It appears that you assume that politics and ideology play a disproportionately large role when it comes to explaining macroeconomic performance. Hence, you appear to assume my points are also rooted in politics and ideology.

    Political factors are just one element in shaping the nation’s economic performance. If political factors were the leading explanation, the nation could experience continual robust recession-free growth, as the public being self-interested would continually choose the policy makers who knew how to manage the economy. Any other choice would be irrational. Moreover, when it came to economic policy, there would be interparty consensus. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

    Politics plays some role in the whole scheme of things, but pundits greatly overstate that role. Upon President Reagan’s taking office, numerous Democrats argued that the economy was doomed (and claimed that their narrative had credibility during the 1981-82 downturn). When President Obama took office, numerous Republicans held similarly gloomy views. Both political narratives proved incorrect.

    Quite frankly, I could care less who is in the White House when discussing the economy. I’m interested in discussing the state of the economy as it really is and its direction. If one wants to credit/blame the President, that’s a separate matter.

    With respect to the Q1 economic performance and what ultimately proved to be a temporary contraction—and economists nailed the temporary nature of that contraction—was, in part, due to weather-related disruptions. It was not solely due to bad weather.

    One saw references to weather in preceding economic reports and also the Fed’s own discussion of economic conditions. The weather-related explanation was not something that was suddenly introduced when the GDP data was revised to show a significant quarterly contraction.

    There were some additional factors, too. For example, China underwent a growth pause of sorts where its growth fell below the levels it had been sustaining in recent years. Since then, China has experienced a pickup in its growth rate.

    Moreover, I’m not ignoring “millions of struggling Americans.” For example, I’ve also posted data concerning longer-term unemployment, broader measures of unemployment, and information about people not in the labor force and compared them to the pre-recession figures. Although June saw some nice improvements, those figures remain generally well above pre-recession figures.

    http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063481874

    Finally, I do care what works/does not. I read through the empirical data and the many reports that are regularly published. The factors impacting the economy are numerous and their interactions highly complex. Not all of those interactions are well understood or well-modeled, leaving large areas of uncertainty. Not surprisingly, economic forecasts beyond the shortest-term ones are often subject to large error.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    lol yes, because the numbers aren't actuals, that means they're worthless. Estimates are completely pointless and useless and mean nothing at all.
    Given what happened with the Q1 data, it is hard to see what good the initial figures are for anyone.
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