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Thread: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?

    842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

    Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.


    Dow Highest Closing Record

    The Dow historical closing high is 16,947.08 set June 20, 2014. Normally, investors say "sell in May," but that's why you can't time the market. The Dow is on a winning streak, after falling to 15,372.80 on February 3. Here's this year's streak:

    •16,945.92 on June 10
    •16,943.10 on June 9
    •16,924.28 on June 6
    •16,836.11 on June 5
    •16,743.63 on June 2
    • 16,717.17 on May 30
    •16,715.44 on May 13
    •16,695.47 on May 12
    •16,583.34 on May 9
    •16,580.84 on April 30
    Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?

    842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

    Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.




    Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?

    You're not alone in your suspicion.

    The Obama administration and their minions are more concerned with the manumanufacturing of a facade of recovery.

    If it were up to them they would subvert every bit of negative economic data.

    Essentially they're telling the poor and the struggling American middle class to " shut up, you're making us look bad "

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?
    As already discussed, GDP is not "the economy" (despite the slightly misleading thread title). It is only one measure of economic conditions.

    And yes, it does make sense that GDP changed dramatically between Q1 and Q2, because Q1 GDP went down due to short-term effects such as bad weather, and a drop in exports. And that most people aren't in a position to "feel" the difference between one good quarter, and one bad quarter.


    842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)
    The stock market isn't much of an economic indicator. It's more an indicator in the confidence that people and institutions have in future stock prices.

    For example, the economic news this week was pretty much right down the middle, notably unemployment hasn't changed much. And yet, the US stock market had a broad-based across-the-board downturn. Why? Not because the economy was tanking, but because investors were terrified that the Federal Reserve was going to hike interest rates.

    Further, the idea that the BEA is manipulating figures to keep the stock market higher is blatantly absurd, and basically a conspiracy theory. Why would the BEA ever admit any bad news, if that was the case? Why would it have published the Q1 GDP losses? Ridiculous.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    As already discussed, GDP is not "the economy" (despite the slightly misleading thread title). It is only one measure of economic conditions.

    And yes, it does make sense that GDP changed dramatically between Q1 and Q2, because Q1 GDP went down due to short-term effects such as bad weather, and a drop in exports. And that most people aren't in a position to "feel" the difference between one good quarter, and one bad quarter.



    The stock market isn't much of an economic indicator. It's more an indicator in the confidence that people and institutions have in future stock prices.

    For example, the economic news this week was pretty much right down the middle, notably unemployment hasn't changed much. And yet, the US stock market had a broad-based across-the-board downturn. Why? Not because the economy was tanking, but because investors were terrified that the Federal Reserve was going to hike interest rates.

    Further, the idea that the BEA is manipulating figures to keep the stock market higher is blatantly absurd, and basically a conspiracy theory. Why would the BEA ever admit any bad news, if that was the case? Why would it have published the Q1 GDP losses? Ridiculous.

    No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

    Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

    Thats all.

    And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

    The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

    Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

    Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

    Thats all.

    And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

    The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

    Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.
    The Fed doesn't have that much power over markets
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

    Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

    Thats all.

    And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

    The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

    Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.
    This was not an average winter.
    Plus, while most of the attention was focused on the North East, the South West, where most of the fruits and vegetables are grown, has been experiencing unprecedented drought.

    So, weather could easily drop the GDP that much. Another similar winter, and it will drop even more.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    I think it is good news, but the primary worry is the jump in inventory which could indicate a slumping marketplace.
    Or it could mean that retailers expect our economy to improve at an even faster rate in the near future.

    Also, if we believe that production comes before demand, then the supply side is doing the right thing - creating jobs and increasing inventory. Soon, the increase in production should result in an increase in demand due to consumers having more jobs and thus more money to spend and save.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Btw, the DOW has dropped over 300 points today.

    For the record, on December 31, 2013 the DOW closed at 16,576.73.

    Right now it is 16,569.33.

    So it's down for the year, so far.
    That's a good indicator that we are not in a stock market bubble - the fact that the dow has kept within a fairly tight range. Also a good indicator that we are very unlikely to fall into another recession due to any financial bubble-burst cycle.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by NonoBadDog View Post
    I pulled my money out of the market and put it into govt. bonds. The market seems real nervous and bi-polar. More nervous than usual.
    I wouldn't think that at all with the DOW trading within such a tight range. It would appear to me that investors overall feel that the market is correctly priced.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: U.S. economy bounces back sharply

    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much? ...
    What would lead you to believe that the economy declined so much first quarter?

    Most economists are attributing that huge and unexpected loss to the weather. If that is correct, then a huge gain should have been expected the following quarter to offset that temporarly loss. The loss probably created pent-up demamd, which was released 2nd Q. My expectation for the third quarter would be some stabilization of growth, probably right around the 2% that we have become accustomed to.

    Another possible explaination for the decline in 1st Q was due to people down talking our economy due to Obamacare. We had people like Rush predicting that our economy would collapse due to Obamacare. That didn't happen, but maybe to a small degree his predictions became a self fulfilling prophecy. Then when those crazies on the far right realized that he was wrong, we made up for the loss and carried on with business.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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