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Thread: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Here are some figures regarding U.S. population demographics:

    • The average prime working age LFPR since 2007 is 82.0%, and the average 55-and-over LFPR since 2007 is 40.1%
    • The size of the 55-and-over population has increased by 15.619 million relative to that of the prime working age population since 2007
    • 15.619 million multiplied by the difference between the two participation rates (82.0% - 40.1%) implies that this simple demographic shift alone has left only 6.544 million workers at the end of 2013 where there were 15.619 million at the end of 2007
    • Subtract that 6.544 million still in the labor force from the 15.619 million who made the shift from the first bucket to the second bucket and you get 9.075 million people 55 years of age or over who have left the labor force over the past six years




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    Based on this there is a lot less slack in the labor market than the federal reserve has said out loud. I will guess they have at least as much information as you do. BTW, I think you are directionally correct. There may be a distortion in that you are looking (I think) at the current rate of employment for the over 55 group versus what that number was in 2006.

    That being said, the reason why the fed is keeping rates at an exceptionally low rate ( as well as other central banks in the developed world) may be due to something other than trying to increase our employment numbers.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post

    That being said, the reason why the fed is keeping rates at an exceptionally low rate ( as well as other central banks in the developed world) may be due to something other than trying to increase our employment numbers.
    That is a long winded way of saying absolutely nothing.
    Quote Originally Posted by trouble13 View Post
    If you wanna know why Trumpsters are ignoring you its for the same reason you ignored the KKKs complaints about Obama.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    When it comes down to it, all facts are cherry picked.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodhisattva View Post
    He didn't say it didn't make sense. He said it is complete nonsense.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    This might have already been noted, but what part of this drop can be attributed to the fact that the extension on unemployment insurance wasn't renewed as of January 1, 2014 and significant numbers of unemployed no longer qualify for jobless benefits?
    None.

    These figures are for NEW (initial) unemployment claims. It is not a measure of the total number of people currently collecting unemployment.

    Please note that this is only one measure of unemployment. The primary measure is a monthly survey run by the BLS, which is completely separate from initial unemployment insurance claims.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimmesometruth View Post
    That is a long winded way of saying absolutely nothing.
    Better said, an answer you do not understand.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    Based on this there is a lot less slack in the labor market than the federal reserve has said out loud.
    Possibly. Also see Less Slack In The US Labor Market - Business Insider

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    The error in the article (in my humble view) is that the fed will not err on the side of higher inflation. Rather they are hoping for higher inflation as it will erode debt as a % of GDP. Yellen has no sympathy for retired on fixed income, as they are "wealthy" in her thinking anyway.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    Better said, an answer you do not understand.
    Oh, I understand perfectly what "something other than" means, it means nothing.
    Quote Originally Posted by trouble13 View Post
    If you wanna know why Trumpsters are ignoring you its for the same reason you ignored the KKKs complaints about Obama.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    When it comes down to it, all facts are cherry picked.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodhisattva View Post
    He didn't say it didn't make sense. He said it is complete nonsense.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    The error in the article (in my humble view) is that the fed will not err on the side of higher inflation. Rather they are hoping for higher inflation as it will erode debt as a % of GDP. Yellen has no sympathy for retired on fixed income, as they are "wealthy" in her thinking anyway.
    She supports QE and it was sold on the premise that it would counter the dreaded deflation that was surely on its way

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    No we wouldn't necessarily. Folks who once had one full time job now have two or more part time jobs.
    Except the percent of employed who have more than one job is lower even than before the recession.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    No we wouldn't necessarily. Folks who once had one full time job now have two or more part time jobs.
    Reminds me of something...

    “You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." - George W. Bush

    To a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005”
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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