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Thread: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    No they don't, the participation rate started dropping at the exact time the recession started. Most of the baby boomers are already to old to even be in the rate calculation. It cuts off at 65 so no matter how much of our population is over 65 that can't change the rate at all.
    Of course the recession would have an effect as well...I didn't say demographics were the only reason for change.

    And no, there's no cut off of 65. I have no idea where you got that idea. It's true in most of Europe but the U.S. has never had a max age for labor force statistics.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimmesometruth View Post
    Well, since 2009, we are seeing those declines in real terms.
    Yes, but in 2009 there was real deflation which skews the data. Real wages are roughly what they were 10 years ago.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    The duration of expansion is increasing.
    Oh. That may be true. Like with the weather, have an umbrella along anyway.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Yes, but in 2009 there was real deflation which skews the data. Real wages are roughly what they were 10 years ago.
    Deflation in prices, not so much in wages (sticky), which should have caused real wage inflation.

    Again, your claim was that if job quality was declining, we would see that in wages. We have, since 2009.
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    If you wanna know why Trumpsters are ignoring you its for the same reason you ignored the KKKs complaints about Obama.
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    When it comes down to it, all facts are cherry picked.
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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    No they don't, the participation rate started dropping at the exact time the recession started.
    This is an inaccurate characterization.

    The LFPR did drop due to the recession, and isn't going up. However, the peak was actually in 2001.




    We should also note that men have been steadily leaving the workforce since 1950:



    The reason why LFPR has been increasing since the 1950s is basically because women were joining the workforce.

    There are some short-term influences; e.g. people are retiring early or spending more time in school because of the recession. But there really aren't a lot of policy changes that are affecting LFPR.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimmesometruth View Post
    Again, your claim was that if job quality was declining, we would see that in wages. We have, since 2009.
    Only if we ignore pricing dynamics.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    This is an inaccurate characterization.

    The LFPR did drop due to the recession, and isn't going up. However, the peak was actually in 2001.




    We should also note that men have been steadily leaving the workforce since 1950:



    The reason why LFPR has been increasing since the 1950s is basically because women were joining the workforce.

    There are some short-term influences; e.g. people are retiring early or spending more time in school because of the recession. But there really aren't a lot of policy changes that are affecting LFPR.
    Bull..

    For ages 25-29 the Labor participation rate has increased nearly 14 percent since 2008.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Only if we ignore pricing dynamics.
    No, we are talking about REAL wages.
    Quote Originally Posted by trouble13 View Post
    If you wanna know why Trumpsters are ignoring you its for the same reason you ignored the KKKs complaints about Obama.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    When it comes down to it, all facts are cherry picked.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodhisattva View Post
    He didn't say it didn't make sense. He said it is complete nonsense.

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimmesometruth View Post
    No, we are talking about REAL wages.
    You are still ignoring price dynamics:

    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since early 2006

    'Weekly Jobless Claims fell a whopping level to a “seasonal adjusted” 284,000. That is an extremely low level and a level we see in a normal growth period. It’s good to see, but we need to clearly understand what it does mean and what it doesn’t mean.

    First, a drop in weekly claims does NOT mean job creation. Some will certainly try to imply that it does, but that is just conjecture and there is no math to indicate as such. It just means fewer people are applying for jobless claims, we can’t automatically assume that 100s of thousands all of a sudden found a job.

    Second, it doesn’t mean a drop in FULL unemployment. Again, some will certainly say a drop in claims means a drop in unemployment. That’s true IF we are particular of WHOM we count as unemployed and not unemployed. There is some circumstantial evidence that it will impact the U3 unemployment rate, but not necessarily the U6 rate.

    Third, what about those that have run out of benefits and can no longer apply? If you had been unemployed, you can’t remain unemployed indefinitely, you eventually run out of government benefits and that means you no longer file for claims. This is seen in the “participation rate”, which is currently at a low not seen since the 1970s. This will be interesting to watch come the Labor Report at the end of the month, if the participation rate continues to drop, then it tells us the drop in claims means more people are just running out of benefits and not employed.

    Lastly, with the “seasonal adjustments”, there are some rather large adjustments in the model. If we look at the NON seasonal adjustments for the previous week, it was 370,000 vs. the “seasonal adjusted” 303,000. That’s over 70,000 removed from the July 12th ACTUAL claims number, because the government felt they needed to ADJUST the number for SEASONAL effects. Reality is 370,000 applied for the week of July 12th for claims, not the 303,000 reported. But no one pays attention to the math.'


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