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Thread: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    It appears we're just shifting costs around, with federal spending on healthcare, the subject in the op that is apparently supposed to be lower, dominating federal spending.
    The subject of the OP is not "federal spending on health care is going to decrease"
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post


    In other words, it was debunked
    No, it wasn't. Misrepresenting the conclusions of a study doesn't invalidate the study. The study conclusions still need to be challenged which your source doesn't actually do.

    IOW, the study is wrong, but it's right!!
    Nope. Again, the Forbes article made claims based on individual states that had limited survey coverage, the Morgan Stanley survey drew conclusions from the aggregated data. Whereas the Forbes article claimed state by state increases, the Morgan Stanley study made nationwide claims based on all the data.

    I have a feeling you understand all of this but are just playing stupid because it better serves the point you are trying to make.


    Umm, the right predicted people's costs would skyrocket and the opposite happened and premiums did not go up 90% as MS claimed.

    Read the actual study. (PDF)

    Nowhere does it say that insurance went up 90%. The study states that nationwide the average jump was 11% in the individual market and 12% in the small group market, based on surveys of major providers. This is a drastic increase is growth rate over the last 3 years.

    For instance, here is the nationwide rate increase for the individual market in the last 3 years (1 BPS= 1/100th of 1%):

    rate increase.PNG

    The jump corresponds with the beginning of open enrollment in ACA.

    The same trend shows in the small group plans:

    rate trend 2.jpg

    All you have provided is evidence that Forbes used the study wrong. The Growth Rate of small group insurance increased by 97% over 4Q 2013, which itself was a 218% growth rate increase over 3Q 2013 (the last quarter before open enrollment).

    The step increase into open enrollment was even more severe in the individual market with a 424% jump in growth rate from 3Q2013 to 4Q2013.
    Last edited by jmotivator; 07-21-14 at 03:49 PM.
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    The subject of the OP is not "federal spending on health care is going to decrease"
    I guess its a lot easier to move the goalposts....

    Apparently, this reduction in costs is bad news because it will delay the collapse of the socialist state. It was predicted in 1934, and the country has been floundering since then, with barely any economic growth and an economy that is so bad it only produces 25% of the worlds GDP with 5% of the population.
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Not to mention Medicare patients are busy looking for doctors that will take them.

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    I guess its a lot easier to move the goalposts....

    Apparently, this reduction in costs is bad news because it will delay the collapse of the socialist state. It was predicted in 1934, and the country has been floundering since then, with barely any economic growth and an economy that is so bad it only produces 25% of the worlds GDP with 5% of the population.
    The reduction in cost is a prediction. Maybe the CBO factored in conservative victories in 2014 and 2016.
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Oh, and by the way, as we know from objective studies, premiums didnt skyrocket (despite the chicken little Conservative pronoucements) in 2014.

    And despite the Chicken Little pronouncements that there was a delay in the increases (at DP, this is often done in the same thread... the skyrocket changes into next years skyrocket, mysteriously), and we will see those increases NEXT year... it looks like the CBO says thats pretty doubtful.

    Smaller premium hikes forecast in 2015 for Obamacare - Jennifer Haberkorn and Brett Norman - POLITICO.com

    Insurance premiums under Obamacare are projected to rise less than 3 percent in 2015, a smaller-than-expected jump as the health insurance exchanges enter their second year.
    And they also say:

    The budget estimates now project premiums to be about 15 percent lower in 2016 than initial projections four years ago.
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    Not to mention Medicare patients are busy looking for doctors that will take them.
    Look at all the money they might be saving in the future by making it harder to translate your health insurance into actual healthcare!
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The reduction in cost is a prediction. Maybe the CBO factored in conservative victories in 2014 and 2016.
    The CBO can factor nothing in that does not exist - they go strictly off of existing law.

    This program is going to be like Medicare. Eventually, the GOP will end up claiming it as their own, and dropping the term 'Obamacare'.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    Not to mention Medicare patients are busy looking for doctors that will take them.
    Oh, yes. I forgot about this Chicken Little meme.

    Report: More doctors accepting Medicare patients

    I think its something like 96% of physicians take Medicare, and the ones who dont generally dont take ANY insurance.


    How about the long lines outside doctors offices because too many people will want to see doctors? That was funny too.

    These stories are almost as good as how premiums will skyrocket (NEXT year, natch) and the program that is designed to make insurance more accessible will make people lose their insurance. And the funny thing is, some people fall for it year after year!
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    No, it wasn't. Misrepresenting the conclusions of a study doesn't invalidate the study. The study conclusions still need to be challenged which your source doesn't actually do.



    Nope. Again, the Forbes article made claims based on individual states that had limited survey coverage, the Morgan Stanley survey drew conclusions from the aggregated data. Whereas the Forbes article claimed state by state increases, the Morgan Stanley study made nationwide claims based on all the data.

    I have a feeling you understand all of this but are just playing stupid because it better serves the point you are trying to make.





    Read the actual study. (PDF)

    Nowhere does it say that insurance went up 90%. The study states that nationwide the average jump was 11% in the individual market and 12% in the small group market, based on surveys of major providers. This is a drastic increase is growth rate over the last 3 years.

    For instance, here is the nationwide rate increase for the individual market in the last 3 years (1 BPS= 1/100th of 1%):

    rate increase.PNG

    The jump corresponds with the beginning of open enrollment in ACA.

    The same trend shows in the small group plans:

    rate trend 2.jpg

    All you have provided is evidence that Forbes used the study wrong. The Growth Rate of small group insurance increased by 97% over 4Q 2013, which itself was a 218% growth rate increase over 3Q 2013 (the last quarter before open enrollment).

    The step increase into open enrollment was even more severe in the individual market with a 424% jump in growth rate from 3Q2013 to 4Q2013.
    Lots of words, but none of them explain how the MS study can be valid when it only surveyed one insurer in 11 states
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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