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Thread: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

  1. #41
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Heres a nice graph showing the budget impact.



    Thats total federal government spending... a massively lower projection.
    Question on your graph. How can CBO estimates from 2009 and 2014 both have different pictures of the Federal Health Spending/GDP prior to 2009?

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Question on your graph. How can CBO estimates from 2009 and 2014 both have different pictures of the Federal Health Spending/GDP prior to 2009?
    Ask the CBO.

    I'd guess its retrospective adjustments on GDP estimates.
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    You call healthcare taking a bigger share of our GDP a success. Not in my book.
    I can't talk about your book, but in reality 7.5% is less than 10%
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Beaudreaux View Post
    Let's see the logic here... A graph that shows only a revision of the path from a little less than 10% of rise in costs to GDP to a ~7.5% of a rise in costs to GDP , which still shows a path toward unsustainable spending (as stated in the OP's own article), potential fiscal collapse and economic destruction... is a good thing.

    Amazing logic.
    It sure beats the "let's not change anything and watch as costs increase faster and faster because that's how we avoid potential fiscal collapse and economic destruction"

    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

  5. #45
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    It sure beats the "let's not change anything and watch as costs increase faster and faster because that's how we avoid potential fiscal collapse and economic destruction"

    Roll your eyes all you wish sangha. The post you quoted was part of an overall argument/conversation, and if taken out of context it allows you to do your normal hit and run. However, because you and I have been communicating rather well as of late, I chose to reply.

    First, read all the posts, then go back and look at this one in particular once again and read the linked article: http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063550407
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  6. #46
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    I am well aware that there are plenty of threads where you willfully ignore the facts. The real world is unimpressed with propaganda as premiums skyrocket.
    The Morgan Stanley survey has been debunked

    Hear the one about NH health insurance rates going up 90 percent? | Political Scoop - WMUR Home
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by Beaudreaux View Post
    Roll your eyes all you wish sangha. The post you quoted was part of an overall argument/conversation, and if taken out of context it allows you to do your normal hit and run. However, because you and I have been communicating rather well as of late, I chose to reply.

    First, read all the posts, then go back and look at this one in particular once again and read the linked article: http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063550407
    Yes, I've read all about the Morgan Stanley survey. If you had done the same, you'd understand why it's so dishonest for you to refer to it
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

  8. #48
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    The Morgan Stanley survey was not "debunked", the use of it in the Forbes article was successfully corrected. The WMUR author correctly pointed out that a state by state evaluation was not a good use of the study given the counts in some states, as Morgan Stanley pointed out in the survey. But then Morgan Stanley sticks by their overall evaluation of the market based on aggregated survey data, and your article fails to adequately invalidate the full study. The overall Morgan Stanley finding was still a steep increase in nationwide in 1Q of 2014 and 4Q 2013.

    But the author goes a bridge too far by trying to then prove the opposite is true:

    "Morgan Stanley never promised that this survey was based on actual insurance rate data in each state. But if you are interested in that the state Insurance Department hired an outside firm to do that analysis. They found that, after you factor in subsidies in the new health care law, the average premium would actually decrease eight percent this year."

    Bzzzzzzt!

    The WMUR author needed to count subsidies to show a "decrease", which obviously to any sane person isn't a valid way to determine if insurance premiums actually declined. Morgan Stanely's findings of a steep increase in 1Q premiums stands, and WMUR gets caught with it's hand in the ideological cookie jar.

    I debunked your debunk.
    Last edited by jmotivator; 07-21-14 at 02:28 PM.
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  9. #49
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Heres an interesting chart as well



    A CBO blog post yesterday noted that federal spending is projected to rise noticeably relative to the size of the economy over the long term because of growth in spending for Social Security, major health care programs, and interest on the government’s debt. Today we will discuss the factors that account for the projected growth in the first two of those major components of the budget.

    Under current law, spending for Social Security would increase from almost 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 to more than 6 percent in 2039 and beyond (see the figure below). Even more of the anticipated growth is expected to come from the government’s major health care programs (Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges): CBO projects that, under current law, total outlays for those programs, net of Medicare premiums and certain other offsetting receipts, would grow much faster than the overall economy, increasing from just below 5 percent of GDP now to 8 percent in 2039.
    It appears we're just shifting costs around, with federal spending on healthcare, the subject in the op that is apparently supposed to be lower, dominating federal spending.

    What Are the Causes of Projected Growth in Spending for Social Security and Major Health Care Programs? - CBO

  10. #50
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    Re: Budget Office Lowers Its Estimate on Federal Spending for Health Care

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The Morgan Stanley survey was not "debunked", the use of it in the Forbes article was successfully corrected.


    In other words, it was debunked


    The WMUR author correctly pointed out that a state by state evaluation was not a good use of the study given the counts in some states, as Morgan Stanley pointed out in the survey. But then Morgan Stanley sticks by their overall evaluation of the market based on aggregated survey data, and your article fails to adequately invalidate the full study. The overall Morgan Stanley finding was still a steep increase in nationwide in 1Q of 2014 and 4Q 2013.
    IOW, the study is wrong, but it's right!!

    But the author goes a bridge too far by trying to then prove the opposite is true:

    "Morgan Stanley never promised that this survey was based on actual insurance rate data in each state. But if you are interested in that the state Insurance Department hired an outside firm to do that analysis. They found that, after you factor in subsidies in the new health care law, the average premium would actually decrease eight percent this year."

    Bzzzzzzt!

    The WMUR author needed to count subsidies to show a "decrease", which obviously to any sane person isn't a valid way to determine if insurance premiums actually declined. Morgan Stanely's findings of a steep increase in 1Q premiums stands, and WMUR gets caught with it's hand in the ideological cookie jar.

    I debunked your debunk.
    Umm, the right predicted people's costs would skyrocket and the opposite happened and premiums did not go up 90% as MS claimed.
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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