It'd take grim determination on the part of a Commander-in-Chief to accept that degree of destruction in America for the sake of honouring a treaty with Taiwan.
He who knows the least obeys the best.
I think China is correct given that very specific scenario. Taiwan is just too close to such a large nation for America to project total control over a prolonged period. Although America maintains technical superiority to some degree, just the sheer proximity means low-tech assaults on US naval forces would be effective. (and one wonders how much of our technological advantage still exists these days. China probably has stolen or bought half the designs in our inventory) A large enough barrage of land-based missiles can overwhelm any naval defense of the island, and even of the carrier groups themselves. Leave American ships out of reach of land-based missiles and you've just given up an enormous gap in reaction times. China also just has a far larger base of resources to work with. Having quadruple the population has advantages. In any case, the costs to China would be severe. They'd lose a lot of troop transports and aircraft to carrier-based US fighters and our subs.
The scenario makes some assumptions, though: that nuclear weapons are off the table and America is attempting to minimize collateral damage in Taiwan. If nukes come out, the entire discussion of navies and invasions is purely academic, and if America is willing to flatten a country there's nobody that can stop us.
One of you will end up here next!