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Thread: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    The traditional definition of a recession doesn't seem to apply to the millions of unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers who seem to be in more of a depression than recession. More importantly is the morale of the American people and their lack of confidence in the leadership or should I say lack of leadership we have today. Mindset is so important in our economy as well as our lives and poor leadership or lack of it breeds poor confidence.
    U6 SAAR Unemployment is around 12%. 2003 up to the recession it was hovering around 8-10%; after the crash it shot up to around 16%, so it's coming down. GDP is picking up; indeed, a 4% annualized growth rate would be huge, as the average annual growth rate since 1970 is about 3%. Of course it's not going to hit 4% given that a lot of this was probably a pickup from a slow Q1, but it's promising that GDP is on track to hit the average.

    The only indicator worth debating, then, is labor force participation rate (CIVPART). You are correct that this has been declining since the recession, but in fact it actually peaked around 2000. There are so many factors involved in this data - the aging of the baby boomers, etc. - that it is insufficient to point to it as evidence of an unhealthy economy on its own.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    U6 SAAR Unemployment is around 12%. 2003 up to the recession it was hovering around 8-10%; after the crash it shot up to around 16%, so it's coming down. GDP is picking up; indeed, a 4% annualized growth rate would be huge, as the average annual growth rate since 1970 is about 3%. Of course it's not going to hit 4% given that a lot of this was probably a pickup from a slow Q1, but it's promising that GDP is on track to hit the average.

    The only indicator worth debating, then, is labor force participation rate (CIVPART). You are correct that this has been declining since the recession, but in fact it actually peaked around 2000. There are so many factors involved in this data - the aging of the baby boomers, etc. - that it is insufficient to point to it as evidence of an unhealthy economy on its own.
    You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

    Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

    Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.
    Your post has almost no relevance to mine you're supposedly responding to. Hitting average historic GDP growth would be a pretty damn good indicator that the economy is well on the way to recovery, and isn't in any way "low expectations"; unemployment is a lagging indicator and will always take longer to pick up given companies' historic experience through the recession and desire to retain lean cost structures going into a growth phase.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    Your post has almost no relevance to mine you're supposedly responding to. Hitting average historic GDP growth would be a pretty damn good indicator that the economy is well on the way to recovery, and isn't in any way "low expectations"; unemployment is a lagging indicator and will always take longer to pick up given companies' historic experience through the recession and desire to retain lean cost structures going into a growth phase.
    No, sorry but hitting average GDP Growth after the recession we had is very poor performance and should be the issue. This is a capitalistic economy where govt. spending has been propping it up and govt spending was a very low percentage of GDP in the past. Private businesses have incentive to grow, govt. is destroying that incentive. Still Companies are going to do what it takes and that is why this country is so different than Europe.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    No, sorry but hitting average GDP Growth after the recession we had is very poor performance and should be the issue. This is a capitalistic economy where govt. spending has been propping it up and govt spending was a very low percentage of GDP in the past. Private businesses have incentive to grow, govt. is destroying that incentive. Still Companies are going to do what it takes and that is why this country is so different than Europe.
    What GDP growth rate would you be satisfied with?

    Also, government spending as percentage of GDP has been hovering around 35% since the 80's.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    What GDP growth rate would you be satisfied with?

    Also, government spending as percentage of GDP has been hovering around 35% since the 80's.
    Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term. Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

    Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.
    "Leadership?" Is that the problem? What metric do you use to gauge leadership? Is Obama supposed to will the economy to improve? Considering that Obama has gotten absolutely no cooperation from the GOP on anything, it is hard to lay governing at the feet of the President. What is psychotic is that you wingers say he is passive and not a leader, then complain that Obama is a dictator when he does things out of disgust for GOP inaction. The President can't enact legislation on his own. He needs Congress and the do-nothing House isn't interested in governing.

    The fact that unemployment has dropped to pre-crisis levels; GDP is moving upward are all good signs, to the chagrin of people like you. Why? Because you are fully invested in Obama failing -- because having him succeed undercuts your right-wing ideology.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term.
    Ah yes, the single time that the economy has had a real annual GDP growth rate at that level in the past 40 years. That sounds like a perfectly reasonable expectation.

    Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP
    Are you looking at total or Federal government spending? Not that it matters, it's just a line shift but the trend is similar.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term. Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP
    The recession of 1981 was nothing similar to the demand-lacking, liquidity trap, recession we have today. The 1981 recession was essential deliberately caused by the Fed raising interest rates to fend off inflation, when they took their foot off the breaks, everything bounced back. It was what economists call a V-shaped recession.

    EDIT:

    That Reagan recover did not "average" 7%. One year it rose for the reason that I mentioned. Overall, the Reagan years under-performed economically.



    This shows what everyone was supposed to know: we had an awesome performance in the generation following the war (despite very high tax rates on the rich and a very strong union movement); we had a long period of poor productivity performance that spanned the Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush I administrations; we then had a revival during the Clinton administration, but even so not up to postwar standards. By the way, I don’t give Clinton credit for that revival; it was about learning to use technology. But in any case, there is no hint of a Reagan miracle in the data.

    071811krugman5-blog480.jpg
    Last edited by MTAtech; 07-30-14 at 11:28 AM.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    "Leadership?" Is that the problem? What metric do you use to gauge leadership? Is Obama supposed to will the economy to improve? Considering that Obama has gotten absolutely no cooperation from the GOP on anything, it is hard to lay governing at the feet of the President. What is psychotic is that you wingers say he is passive and not a leader, then complain that Obama is a dictator when he does things out of disgust for GOP inaction. The President can't enact legislation on his own. He needs Congress and the do-nothing House isn't interested in governing.

    The fact that unemployment has dropped to pre-crisis levels; GDP is moving upward are all good signs, to the chagrin of people like you. Why? Because you are fully invested in Obama failing -- because having him succeed undercuts your right-wing ideology.
    No, leadership is about getting results through people and good leadership is about getting good results by getting people to work together. The Obama rhetoric doesn't promote good leadership nor do his policies of class warfare and envy. Reagan gave you the template but liberal arrogance refuses to accept it. It isn't the GOP's responsibility to show leadership, they are in the minority. It is the President's job and he isn't the first President to have opposition. Name for me one compromise of Obama during his term?

    Like all liberals you focus on the minority when it is in your supposed best interest. The GOP has stopped NOTHING that Obama wanted during his first term when he had total control. The fact is unemployment has dropped because the base hasn't increased with population growth, only discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force are making the numbers look better than they are.

    Noticed that it is the GOP House with is obstructionist but not Harry Reid for not debating GOP House bills. Why isn't that obstructionist? Do you think it is the legal right of the President to change bills that the Congress generated and passed? Do you think that ruling by Executive Order promotes bipartisanship? Do you think proposing a 3.9 trillion dollar budget shows fiscal responsibility? Do you think fund raising and attacking Republicans with the world burning is leadership?

    What you show is how little you understand about leadership and the responsibilities of leadership. Obama is a perfect example of what not to do. My rightwigh ideology is what made this country great, free enterprise, pro growth, individual wealth creation, incentive. You ought to pay more attention to what works instead of trying to defend what hasn't

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