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Thread: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Do you realize that a trade deficit still is a reduction in GDP. Do you know what the four components of GDP are and what they contribute?
    Good grief

    Is this some sort of reflex? Every time someone mentions GDP, you ask "do you know what the four components of GDP are?"

    Not only did I explain TWICE last week that I know what the components of GDP are, I even made a post pointing out how exports and imports are treated should be an indicator, and how on that basis GDP should not be treated as the end-all and be-all of economic indicators.

    Not only am I aware that exports increase GDP, and that imports decrease GDP, I'm aware that a significant part of the Q1 drop was due to a drop in exports.

    And here it is, for the third time:
    1) Personal consumption
    2) Business investment
    3) Government spending
    4) Net trade (exports minus imports)

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Good, because that is what you are getting in this booming Obama economy. Discouraged workers have nothing to do with retirees. Just another subject you know little about but profess to be an expert on. You simply cannot admit you are wrong on any topic yet your posts prove you know so little.
    I figure that if one leaves the job market, they must have another source of income, and if they are not bothering to look for work, they are retired. my mother in law retired at age 53, she didnt call it retirement, but she had enough money to live the rest of her life without working. She never returned to work, and never looked for a job again.

    So where did you get the discouraged workers figures from? I'm not seeing anything about that in the news reports. I'm not saying that you are making that up, but I just want to be able to take a look at your source for that.
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    Good grief

    Is this some sort of reflex? Every time someone mentions GDP, you ask "do you know what the four components of GDP are?"

    Not only did I explain TWICE last week that I know what the components of GDP are, I even made a post pointing out how exports and imports are treated should be an indicator, and how on that basis GDP should not be treated as the end-all and be-all of economic indicators.

    Not only am I aware that exports increase GDP, and that imports decrease GDP, I'm aware that a significant part of the Q1 drop was due to a drop in exports.

    And here it is, for the third time:
    1) Personal consumption
    2) Business investment
    3) Government spending
    4) Net trade (exports minus imports)
    Thank you for posting the components. I will admit I have no use for this incompetent in the WH who lacked the experience for the job and here we are 6 years later and he has learned nothing nor apparently have his supporters. It was you who touted the drop in the trade deficit without pointing out the negative still is a reduction in GDP. You then pointed to the 288,000 jobs created without posting the reality that we still have fewer people employed today than when the recession began. Must have been an oversight on your part because I certainly know you have higher expectations than your post would indicate.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I figure that if one leaves the job market, they must have another source of income, and if they are not bothering to look for work, they are retired. my mother in law retired at age 53, she didnt call it retirement, but she had enough money to live the rest of her life without working. She never returned to work, and never looked for a job again.

    So where did you get the discouraged workers figures from? I'm not seeing anything about that in the news reports. I'm not saying that you are making that up, but I just want to be able to take a look at your source for that.
    Bureau of Labor statistics gets their data from a couple of surveys with one being actual phone calls. Discouraged workers are defined by the BLS and come from survey questions answered by those who call. If your mother in law was surveyed they would have asked her questions that would determine if she was discouraged or not. Discouraged workers are counted by the BLS and put on their website. I have posted those official numbers. You really ought to go to BLS. click on the home page and see all the information listed. It will certainly give you more credibility.

    Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Thank you for posting the components. I will admit I have no use for this incompetent in the WH who lacked the experience for the job....
    Wow. Not even bothering with a segue into the irrelevant claim, I see.


    It was you who touted the drop in the trade deficit without pointing out the negative still is a reduction in GDP.
    Uh, no. Not even close.

    The article to which I linked today points out how the June ex-im figures are due to an increase in exports, and a slight drop in imports. What this means is an increase in GDP.

    And from my post on 6/27:

    "Deep into the thread, we have an analysis of what actually caused the GDP [Q1] drop. Some is a decline in consumption, but big chunks are drops in inventory ("stocks" on the chart), and in a combination of an increase in imports and a drop in exports.

    We should note that normally, an increase in imports is actually a positive indicator, as it indicates that Americans were buying foreign goods in significant amounts. A decline in exports will have local effects, but are largely due to conditions outside the US (obviously).

    Just one of many reasons why GDP is not the end-all and be-all of economic indicators."
    http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063456498



    You then pointed to the 288,000 jobs created without posting the reality that we still have fewer people employed today than when the recession began....
    Why on earth am I obligated to do so?

    Since you somehow managed to miss it: There are a bunch of indicators coming out this week, which are showing how things are getting better, and that Q1's drop was an anomaly due to factors like bad weather and a drop in Q1 exports. These early indicators suggest that Q2 GDP will be positive, and part of that will be postponed demand from Q1.

    By the way, when you think on those employment figures, you DO recognize that unemployment was only so low because we were in a huge bubble, which distorted the labor market? You understand that 6.1% unemployment isn't actually that unusual? That participation in the labor force has been dropping since 2000? That while the trend is negative, we're still at higher labor force participation than during most of Reagan's term? That the main reason why labor force participation rose from 1948 to 2000 is because women were entering the labor force, in greater numbers than men were exiting it? That conservatives spent decades decrying women entering the labor force...?

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    Wow. Not even bothering with a segue into the irrelevant claim, I see.



    Uh, no. Not even close.

    The article to which I linked today points out how the June ex-im figures are due to an increase in exports, and a slight drop in imports. What this means is an increase in GDP.

    And from my post on 6/27:

    "Deep into the thread, we have an analysis of what actually caused the GDP [Q1] drop. Some is a decline in consumption, but big chunks are drops in inventory ("stocks" on the chart), and in a combination of an increase in imports and a drop in exports.

    We should note that normally, an increase in imports is actually a positive indicator, as it indicates that Americans were buying foreign goods in significant amounts. A decline in exports will have local effects, but are largely due to conditions outside the US (obviously).

    Just one of many reasons why GDP is not the end-all and be-all of economic indicators."
    http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1063456498




    Why on earth am I obligated to do so?

    Since you somehow managed to miss it: There are a bunch of indicators coming out this week, which are showing how things are getting better, and that Q1's drop was an anomaly due to factors like bad weather and a drop in Q1 exports. These early indicators suggest that Q2 GDP will be positive, and part of that will be postponed demand from Q1.

    By the way, when you think on those employment figures, you DO recognize that unemployment was only so low because we were in a huge bubble, which distorted the labor market? You understand that 6.1% unemployment isn't actually that unusual? That participation in the labor force has been dropping since 2000? That while the trend is negative, we're still at higher labor force participation than during most of Reagan's term? That the main reason why labor force participation rose from 1948 to 2000 is because women were entering the labor force, in greater numbers than men were exiting it? That conservatives spent decades decrying women entering the labor force...?
    Good Lord, things are getting better, for whom? Do you get out much or just bury your head in the books? The reality is you believe in a failed ideology and no matter the results defend those results. They are a disaster. With the bad recession we had, GDP Growth should have been in the 7% range with a pro growth economic policy. We are over 5 years since the end of the recession and we still have fewer people employed than when the recession began. To a liberal that apparently is good news. Guess it doesn't matter since the numbers look better that we still have over 7.3 million part time workers who want full time jobs or that we have 10 million unemployed people, 700,000 discouraged workers. Oh by the way, yes the reduction in the trade deficit does improve the GDP but the negative number is still a reduction in GDP.

    Amazing what low economic standards you have when a D is in the WH and how that changes with Bush. Please tell me the economic numbers Obama has that are better than anything Bush had.

    Unemployment? No
    GDP NO
    Discouraged workers NO
    Deficits and debt NO
    Job creation NO
    Foreign policy NO

    Yes, liberalism is a disease that when corrected is too late and saying I was wrong or am sorry doesn't do much good.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Good Lord, things are getting better, for whom?
    As I've already posted this week:

    Auto sales are up
    Retail sales are up
    Unemployment is down (much more than expected)
    Exports are up
    Imports are slightly down

    Also, consumer confidence jumped 3 points in June: https://www.conference-board.org/dat...confidence.cfm

    So obviously, someone is feeling better.


    Do you get out much or just bury your head in the books?
    "Get out" where? The US has over 300 million people, with at least 30 cities with populations over 500,000. I seriously doubt that you've been going to different cities every single day, doing surveys of consumer confidence and reviewing their economic status.


    The reality is you believe in a failed ideology and no matter the results defend those results....
    Please. What "ideology" do you think I hold?

    I haven't denied that Q1 was negative. All I said was that it was bad due to one-time factors, like weather and (once the evidence showed it) a drop in exports; and that as a result, Q2 was very likely to be positive. So far, the evidence supports this view -- one held not just by me, but by mainstream economists and analysts, who have no particular partisan slant.

    Meanwhile, you've done everything you can to deny and/or dump on the positive news this week. Hmmmmm


    We are over 5 years since the end of the recession and we still have fewer people employed than when the recession began.
    Please. The 2007 recession eliminated more jobs than any economic downturn since the 1930s, before Obama even took office. The real estate market -- as in, the biggest asset in the portfolio of the majority of Americans -- took a major hit, as did the overweighted construction industry. And when the financial markets took a hit, it slowed the economy to a crawl, since they were not willing to lend to anyone, and the mortgage market is STILL acting like no one can be trusted.

    Acting like the 2007 recession is no different than other post-WWII recessions is sheer nonsense.

    FYO, the 2007 recession started in December 2007. Obama took office in January 2009, which is Month 25 on the chart:




    To a liberal that apparently is good news. Guess it doesn't matter since the numbers look better that we still have over 7.3 million part time workers who want full time jobs or that we have 10 million unemployed people....
    It looks better that we have 288,000 more people working than we did last month. It shows that Q1 was not a harbinger of dire times ahead, or that the fundamentals are weak.

    And to me, griping about positive numbers looks more like sour grapes than a neutral economic analysis.


    Oh by the way, yes the reduction in the trade deficit does improve the GDP but the negative number is still a reduction in GDP.
    Read it again. Exports are up, imports are down slightly. That's a net positive for GDP, though obviously we have to consider the rest of the quarter as well.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    As I've already posted this week:

    • Auto sales are up
    • Retail sales are up
    • Unemployment is down (much more than expected)
    • Exports are up
    • Imports are slightly down

    Also, consumer confidence jumped 3 points in June: https://www.conference-board.org/dat...confidence.cfm

    So obviously, someone is feeling better.



    "Get out" where? The US has over 300 million people, with at least 30 cities with populations over 500,000. I seriously doubt that you've been going to different cities every single day, doing surveys of consumer confidence and reviewing their economic status.



    Please. What "ideology" do you think I hold?

    I haven't denied that Q1 was negative. All I said was that it was bad due to one-time factors, like weather and (once the evidence showed it) a drop in exports; and that as a result, Q2 was very likely to be positive. So far, the evidence supports this view -- one held not just by me, but by mainstream economists and analysts, who have no particular partisan slant.

    Meanwhile, you've done everything you can to deny and/or dump on the positive news this week. Hmmmmm



    Please. The 2007 recession eliminated more jobs than any economic downturn since the 1930s, before Obama even took office. The real estate market -- as in, the biggest asset in the portfolio of the majority of Americans -- took a major hit, as did the overweighted construction industry. And when the financial markets took a hit, it slowed the economy to a crawl, since they were not willing to lend to anyone, and the mortgage market is STILL acting like no one can be trusted.

    Acting like the 2007 recession is no different than other post-WWII recessions is sheer nonsense.

    FYO, the 2007 recession started in December 2007. Obama took office in January 2009, which is Month 25 on the chart:





    It looks better that we have 288,000 more people working than we did last month. It shows that Q1 was not a harbinger of dire times ahead, or that the fundamentals are weak.

    And to me, griping about positive numbers looks more like sour grapes than a neutral economic analysis.



    Read it again. Exports are up, imports are down slightly. That's a net positive for GDP, though obviously we have to consider the rest of the quarter as well.
    Yay!! Obama is awesome, it took him over 5 years to generate what liberals call positive numbers none of which are better than anything Bush had. Such low expectations. Add another 700,000(discouraged workers) to the unemployment number and tell me what you have?

    You people simply have such low standards and will do anything to prop up the incompetent. Leadership certainly isn't something you understand. Do you realize that discouraged workers were included in the official unemployment numbers prior to 1993 which put them in every major recession but this one? Do you realize that if you pick a point in time during the last 5 years as your focal point that the numbers have to look better. Since Obama ran on having solutions to the recession shouldn't his evaluation be on pre recession numbers? No, didn't think so. By the way, I guess the million discouraged workers monthly in 2010 weren't unemployed and the 700,000 in June aren't either

    When you point to numbers being up, you better ask yourself up from what? How about very low numbers. Aren't you one of those people who tout the low percentage change in the debt because the base is so much higher vs. a very low base that Reagan had?

    I guess those books that you read and have your head buried in haven't taught you how to think and do research

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    As I've already posted this week:

    • Auto sales are up
    • Retail sales are up
    • Unemployment is down (much more than expected)
    • Exports are up
    • Imports are slightly down

    Also, consumer confidence jumped 3 points in June: https://www.conference-board.org/dat...confidence.cfm

    So obviously, someone is feeling better.



    "Get out" where? The US has over 300 million people, with at least 30 cities with populations over 500,000. I seriously doubt that you've been going to different cities every single day, doing surveys of consumer confidence and reviewing their economic status.



    Please. What "ideology" do you think I hold?

    I haven't denied that Q1 was negative. All I said was that it was bad due to one-time factors, like weather and (once the evidence showed it) a drop in exports; and that as a result, Q2 was very likely to be positive. So far, the evidence supports this view -- one held not just by me, but by mainstream economists and analysts, who have no particular partisan slant.

    Meanwhile, you've done everything you can to deny and/or dump on the positive news this week. Hmmmmm



    Please. The 2007 recession eliminated more jobs than any economic downturn since the 1930s, before Obama even took office. The real estate market -- as in, the biggest asset in the portfolio of the majority of Americans -- took a major hit, as did the overweighted construction industry. And when the financial markets took a hit, it slowed the economy to a crawl, since they were not willing to lend to anyone, and the mortgage market is STILL acting like no one can be trusted.

    Acting like the 2007 recession is no different than other post-WWII recessions is sheer nonsense.

    FYO, the 2007 recession started in December 2007. Obama took office in January 2009, which is Month 25 on the chart:





    It looks better that we have 288,000 more people working than we did last month. It shows that Q1 was not a harbinger of dire times ahead, or that the fundamentals are weak.

    And to me, griping about positive numbers looks more like sour grapes than a neutral economic analysis.




    Read it again. Exports are up, imports are down slightly. That's a net positive for GDP, though obviously we have to consider the rest of the quarter as well.
    523,000 full time positions were lost in June (799K part time jobs were created).

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


    Maybe you call 1/2 a million full-time jobs being replaced with part time jobs a 'positive number'...not me.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    523,000 full time positions were lost in June (799K part time jobs were created).

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


    Maybe you call 1/2 a million full-time jobs being replaced with part time jobs a 'positive number'...not me.
    Nor I. Anyone suppose that this is the impact of ObamaCare? Many have been saying that it's impact was to convert many full time employment positions into part time positions, but I have yet to see anything that nails Obamacare down as the cause. Anyone else?
    Disinformation campaign? The Russian collusion meme pushed by the 'news' media, behaving as a political propaganda organ, hell bent to destroy a legitimately elected president to implement his agenda per the votes of the same electorate. Reference The Big Lie Reference Goebbels

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