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Thread: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

  1. #391
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Seems more to correlate with Carter's time in office than any other trend.

    So people named Jimmy Carter cause inflation? Anyhow, that graph seems to indicate a big increase in inflation around 1973-1974, right when the price of oil started skyrocketing, carter wasn't prez until 1977.
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by MasterLiberty View Post
    Technically I mean the US could set its own domestic oil prices for its own oil (OPEC sets Oil prices for the rest of the world) and yes drill baby drill is indeed the answer, because if we use our own OIL we can charge ourselves w/e we want.
    Not really. "We" don't own the oil, the oil companies do, and they will price it according to the world wide market. Why would US oil producers chose to sell oil to anyone other than the high bidder?
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  3. #393
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    '...according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic analysis, there has never been a time in history that year-over-year gross domestic income has been at its current pace (2.6 percent) without the U.S. economy ultimately falling into recession. That’s more than 50 years of history, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator.'

    This Has Never Happened Without The US Falling Into Recession | Zero Hedge
    There has never been very long without a recession, so you could say the exact same thing about any gdp growth rate.

    Anyhow, 2.6% isn't far below the average.
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  4. #394
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Not really. "We" don't own the oil, the oil companies do, and they will price it according to the world wide market. Why would US oil producers chose to sell oil to anyone other than the high bidder?
    -_- another dolt who thinks the oil companies control the price of oil.... wrong buddy so wrong... OPEC controls the price of oil (Which is like the Middle East +Some countries that hate us). If we naturally produced our own oil our country could set the price of oil per barrel in the US.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by MasterLiberty View Post
    -_- another dolt who thinks the oil companies control the price of oil.... wrong buddy so wrong... OPEC controls the price of oil (Which is like the Middle East +Some countries that hate us). If we naturally produced our own oil our country could set the price of oil per barrel in the US.
    The entire market controls the price of oil. It's supply and demand, and an occasional runup due to a lack of supply (which is still supply and demand - even if that is caused by OPEC).

    Anyhow, so you claim to be a libertarian, yet you are advocating for the US government to set prices. Wow.
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  6. #396
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    So people named Jimmy Carter cause inflation? Anyhow, that graph seems to indicate a big increase in inflation around 1973-1974, right when the price of oil started skyrocketing, carter wasn't prez until 1977.
    We both know Presidents don't cause inflation all by themselves, but their policies obviously have an impact. But in fairness you're the one who started all this by trying to pin it on RWR. For myself, I think the graph plainly shows Carter was the least successful POTUS of that era in dealing with inflation.
    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Again, you seem not to understand whose responsibility the poor and those on welfare belong to? Liberals believe it is Washington but the reality is it is the state and local communities.
    Actually, I'd say it is "whoever has the best idea."

    Unfortunately, turning TANF into block grants for the states indicates that state control isn't necessarily the best idea (How States Have Spent Federal and State Funds Under the TANF Block Grant — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).

    Also, few municipalities (aside from big urban centers) have the resources to really deal with providing safety nets, let alone designing them to avoid welfare traps.


    Further liberals want to blame Bush and the banks for the problem....
    I've said several times in this thread that I don't blame Bush much for the bubbles. He had a little bit of responsibility, as did Clinton; both of them failed to uphold or implement regulations that would have reduced the contagion, though neither really could have eliminated the bubble. Greenspan had more responsibility, since low interest rates were one factor, and Greenspan held a hard line against any financial or mortgage regulations.

    The banks bear more responsibility than the politicians. To make a long story short: There was a ton of capital (US and international) looking for a home, and the Dot Com implosion shifted capital away from equities and into real estate. Real estate rarely has a multi-regional decline; in most cases, one region will decline while others do fine. So, money starts pouring into real estate.

    New financial innovations wound up pouring tons of fuel on the fire. Mortgage brokers misused risk modeling software, which masked the risks. Mortgage originators started selling mortgages to Wall Street, and had no incentives or requirements to hold onto any of the mortgages, so they had no skin in the game. Wall Street banks used CDOs and MBSs to slice and dice the mortgages, which increased the obscurity and disguised the risks, and also resulted in the banks not caring if the borrowers defaulted. Not only did the banks shovel the derivatives at an uneducated market, they also in some cases bet against their own products with CDS's.

    It is important to note that while CDOs can be a good product, they were certainly abused by the investment banks. The entire structure was flawed; the top-rated tranches were not typically specified based on the risks of the mortgages, but who gets paid first. Some banks would also take the lowest (riskiest) tranches, repackage them into another CDO to further obscure the risks. Other products like synthetic CDOs were so complex that I don't know why anyone would buy them.

    Another factor is that banks abused their own VAR systems, and failed to assess the risks to their own existence. They also heavily pressured the ratings agencies to give their products higher ratings than they deserved, with the threat of pulling business (talk about a flawed incentive system).

    Of course, none of this works without buyers, of both the homes and the derivatives. Lots of people bought homes they knew, or should have known, they couldn't have afforded. Investors bought financial products they didn't fully understand, which is never a good idea.

    Subprime was as much a symptom than a cause. They only really became a big force well into the bubble, when the mortgage brokers and banks were running out of borrowers with decent credit histories and decent jobs. In 2003, subprimes were still only 8% of the market; it leaped to 18% in 2004, then 20% in 2005 and 2006. There were also lots of issues with option ARMs, interest-only mortgages, 80-20s and so forth:



    So yeah, the banks do hold a fair amount (if not the bulk) of responsibility for the crisis and subsequent recession, and were not sufficiently taken to task yet for their role.


    I am waiting for you to tell me how this recession affected you and your family? What exactly did you lose?
    Not only are my personal affairs none of your business, my own experiences have nothing to do with how the bubble formed, perpetuated and burst.


    I don't give a damn about the super wealthy, why do you?
    Because they're distorting both the political system and the economy, and some of the choices they're making have a negative effect on the entire country.


    What did they do to prevent you from becoming wealthy?
    Again, it's not about me.

    What they do that potentially harms the entire economy is that some of the super-wealthy want to cut functions that are critical for the nation as a whole (e.g. education, regulation, safety nets). Their enormous wealth also gives them significantly more influence over politicians, via contributions and lobbying -- now more than ever, since the SCOTUS unleashed nearly-unlimited campaign spending.


    You care more about what someone else makes or pays in taxes than the waste, fraud, and abuse in a 3.8 TRILLION Dollar Federal Govt. Why is that?
    *sigh* Again, since you repeatedly insist on excluding SS and Medicare, it's a $2.5 trillion projected deficit for 2015.

    I never said "I don't care about waste." In fact, we haven't really discussed waste very much. The topic of this thread is the slightly ridiculous claim that one quarter of negative growth is somehow supposed to be an indicator that the entire economy is going down the tubes, which is not the case.

    So, to that end: Government spending, revenue collections, high deficits and high debt actually are not a problem for the US economy. Deficits are roughly back in line from the past ~40 years. Despite a slow grinding recovery, things are getting better, so debt as a percentage of GDP is likely to fall, especially if we cut defense spending to a reasonable level and keep health care spending in check. In the short and medium term, the US is more than capable of paying what it owes, and the funds it's using are not a detriment at a time when lenders are still reluctant to lend.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    The entire market controls the price of oil. It's supply and demand, and an occasional runup due to a lack of supply (which is still supply and demand - even if that is caused by OPEC).

    Anyhow, so you claim to be a libertarian, yet you are advocating for the US government to set prices. Wow.
    Actually I am calling for the US government to lower gas prices which they have the power to do by manipulating the federal gas reserve (If supply increases and demand stays the same then prices go down.) You yourself just said that supply and demand play a factor, so if the US has a greater supply and the same demand then they can naturally lower prices.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Seems more to correlate with Carter's time in office than any other trend.

    He answer you pretty well, but this is the trouble with causal relationships. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Too often people think because something happen during a presidency that the president was responsible, when in fact there may well be other causes.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    He answer you pretty well, but this is the trouble with causal relationships. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Too often people think because something happen during a presidency that the president was responsible, when in fact there may well be other causes.
    Linking inflation to specific presidents was his contribution, not mine.
    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

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