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Thread: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

  1. #341
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Several quick things:

    1. Weather was one factor. It was not the only factor. Weather was cited in a variety of economic reports during the timeframe in question.

    2. Some macroeconomic factors were also involved i.e., continuing economic challenges in parts of the Eurozone, a growth slowdown in China, etc.

    3. Keystone would make a very tiny contribution to GDP were it approved, but because it does not exist that contribution has not been made. Hence, one can't argue that Keystone's lack of approval led to the decline in GDP that took place. The strongest argument for Keystone is not on economic grounds (very small impact) but on grounds of strengthening the bilateral U.S.-Canada relationship.

    4. The coal industry accounts for less than 0.5% of GDP. It has a somewhat larger impact than that percentage through the energy price channel. Energy prices overall during Q1 were nearly flat. The big exception was natural gas, which rose about 15%.

    5. Since the tax changes went into effect, there has been a modest drag on economic growth. At the same time, revenues have increased faster than the economy has grown and government spending has increased, reducing the nation's annual budget deficits. Reduced state and local government expenditures also provided a drag.

    6. The long-term unemployed and discouraged workers reflect the larger post-recession transition that remains underway where certain industries play a lesser role in terms of the overall economy than they did before. Structural unemployment is a complex matter and one can't easily attribute it to President Bush or President Obama, as even with faster growth, the skills-jobs mismatch would not necessarily be remedied. The mania that preceded the Great Recession and fueled the housing bubble was the result of numerous factors, some of which predated the Bush Administration and some of which had international origins (e.g., capital flowing from Asia to the U.S. following the Asian Financial Crisis). The narratives that aim to hold Presidents wholly responsible for economic developments--booms and busts--are overly simplistic.

    7. Economic data for Q2 generally point to a growth rebound (perhaps with real GDP growth in the 3%-4% range on an annualized basis).

    8. Some risks lie ahead. Should the modest increase in oil prices give way to a sharper rise which has staying power, should Europe's economy fare worse than anticipated, should the Fed's gradual tapering lead to a larger than anticipated rise in interest rates (not very likely at this time) on account of falling bond prices, should fiscal policy tighten much more quickly than anticipated, etc., all those factors could dampen growth over the remainder of the year.
    Your opinion noted as well as your total lack of understanding as to how a private sector economy works. You point to small increases in GDP by the various issues but those small increases are still increases and grow the economy as well as create a multiplier effect but I don't expect someone like you or anyone else who believes in Obamanomics to understand that

    The private sector requires investment capital and confidence to grow and create jobs. That isn't going to happen under Obama and liberal economic policies. It is the private sector that is going to get us out of this mess not the European socialist model and that will never happen with Obama in the WH

  2. #342
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    If Obama has been so bad for business why have corporations been experiencing record profits? It's obviously not a supply side problem with over taxed firms barely getting by. In fact its the complete opposite. Do you think giving corporations more tax breaks and giving them an "attaboy" will make them start hiring?
    Profits or profit margins?

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos View Post
    I detest the use of "saving money" as much as I detest the use (and this on BOTH sides) of the word "revenue" when speaking of taxes. Revenue is what businesses call the income they receive from customers who buy their products and services (willingly).

    $28 billion. Holycrap, I can't believe someone knowingly brought in the Bush tax cuts and the $28 billion to imply that they make a difference. That's like saying that you need to cut expenses because you're broke, so you decide to stop spending $3 a month on bubblegum, and now you're fiscally prudent.
    Exactly why I use quotes when talking about "cost" and "savings" of taxes. Revenue though is whats on the balance sheets.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    The tax-cuts on the top earners expired. Where have you been?
    Right here, if you read up where I said that. Whats your point?

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Profits or profit margins?
    Doubt most liberals know the difference and have no clue as to what ROI means

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Profits or profit margins?
    It's both
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  7. #347
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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    It's both
    What you liberals see are only record profits, not record investments, low returns on that investment, and dividends to shareholders. The knowledge displayed by Obama and his supporters is quite disappointing but then what do you expect from a community agitator.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Doubt most liberals know the difference and have no clue as to what ROI means
    Well I assumed I didn't have to point out that profit margins were the driving force of record profits, corporate revenue growth hasn't been stellar, but I should of remembered conservatives would have no clue that was the case.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    So apparently all Presidents are seen as a Messiah because you can type in "halo XXX" and you'll get similar pictures. Pretty tight argument to me...
    Google FDR halo. What did you get?
    “I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on what’s being proposed here, he’d agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute.” - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    7. Economic data for Q2 generally point to a growth rebound (perhaps with real GDP growth in the 3%-4% range on an annualized basis).
    Too bad personal spending is not bouncing back at all. A lot of data is still outstanding, so one cannot make a meaningful judgment based on what data has been presented. Personal spending did prompt a number of downgrades to estimates, though. History suggests Q1 was the starting point of a recession.
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
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