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Thread: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    You are absolutely right, I completely misread the stats...I took the non-seasonally adjusted numbers from May 2013 and compared them to the seasonally adjusted numbers from May 2014 (DUH!!!).
    That was going to be the next thing I was going to check.

    [quoyr]I applaud and thank you for spotting that.[/quote] No problem.


    But, now let's compare two apples instead of apples and oranges (like I did above)

    The trend still bears out what the general pattern that I stated earlier, just not as drastically:

    Over the last year (seasonally adjusted):

    1,895,000 more people were employed.

    662,000 in the 16-24 age range.

    487,000 in the (IMO) all-important 25-54 age range.

    746,000 in the 55 plus age range.


    So, that means, of all the increase in employment in the past 12 months, only 25.6% of it was in the important 25-54 age range (even though this age range makes up 65% of the total number of employed)

    The other 74.4% of the increases were for those under 25 and those over 55.

    So, once again, the vast majority of the additional employment during the past 12 months was due to jobs for students and seniors (relatively speaking)...McDonald's/WalMart-type jobs.
    To nit pick, when looking at the same month in different years, it's more accurate to use the not seasonally adjusted data because there's no need to compensate for seasonal variations when the same factors apply. Not a huge deal but seasonal adjustment does distort the numbers a little in this case.

    But the trend is the same, so no real issue.

    You do have to think about changes to the 55+ age group...A 54 year old with a job turns 55...that's a gross addition to the 55+ group. 55+ continued to rise in employment throughout the recessection.

    And characterizing the increasse in employment as low level McDonalds/Walmart is a little simplistic and only a guess. I'm to lazy to attempt to track the changes and the employment type isn't broken down by age group, so we can't really say for sure. Real wages have been dropping so that is a sign of decline in job quality, but it could also be a function of the fact that workers aren't in much position to try to get higher salary but just get what they can.

    Bottom line is that the labor market is improving, but too slowly and not well. I think you're being a little more specific than can reasonably be determined in characterizing the changes as minimum wage type. That's where I think your bias shows.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post


    To nit pick, when looking at the same month in different years, it's more accurate to use the not seasonally adjusted data because there's no need to compensate for seasonal variations when the same factors apply. Not a huge deal but seasonal adjustment does distort the numbers a little in this case.

    But the trend is the same, so no real issue.

    You do have to think about changes to the 55+ age group...A 54 year old with a job turns 55...that's a gross addition to the 55+ group. 55+ continued to rise in employment throughout the recessection.

    And characterizing the increasse in employment as low level McDonalds/Walmart is a little simplistic and only a guess. I'm to lazy to attempt to track the changes and the employment type isn't broken down by age group, so we can't really say for sure. Real wages have been dropping so that is a sign of decline in job quality, but it could also be a function of the fact that workers aren't in much position to try to get higher salary but just get what they can.

    Bottom line is that the labor market is improving, but too slowly and not well. I think you're being a little more specific than can reasonably be determined in characterizing the changes as minimum wage type. That's where I think your bias shows.
    Well I did use the terms 'relatively speaking' and '-type' for a reason.

    I am not saying that all the jobs are with McDonald's/Walmart. But clearly, when the vast majority of new employment is in under 25 and over 55, then I think one can reasonably assume that they are not well paying jobs.

    Additionally, as I pointed out in a later post, when employment in the 45-54 - which many consider the prime money making years - age range is actually dropping...this doubly (IMO) indicates that the jobs being created in the U.S. economy over the last 12 months are of a generally lower pay scale on average. Quantity over quality.


    And I will state again, I have no political bias AT ALL. I detest both parties. I have ZERO political affiliation to ANY political organization.

    My bias is to the truth and to the best possible economy for all humans (American and otherwise).

    And I think that it is becoming more and more clear to those it's an open mind that a Fed/central bank-stimulated economy is not the best possible economy.

    That is not a bias - if it works, power to it - that is just an observation of the available data mixed in with, IMO, common sense.

    Though I understand why you would believe I was biased...most on here are.

    Me? I don't give a **** who wins the elections...I just wish they would stop messing up the economy (as both parties presently are, IMO).


    Once again, I want to thank you for correcting me and not rubbing my nose too much that I messed up. I give you flak sometimes, but I have never questioned your expertise on statistics.

    I am here to learn (investing IS my profession, after all) and if I am reading the stats wrongly, I learn nothing.
    Last edited by DA60; 06-23-14 at 12:04 AM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    then we need to increase minimum wage.
    Because we are failing to make quality jobs/careers available for our youth, we need to increase minimum wage? How about we fix the economy and create the right jobs so they can get a mortgage, and their kids can pick up their burger flipping job.

    You see the right problem, but you have the wrong solution.

    I should add, if there were to be an increase in minimum wage, it should be done at the state level, not federal.
    Last edited by Blue_State; 06-23-14 at 09:44 AM.
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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    Because we are failing to make quality jobs/careers available for our youth, we need to increase minimum wage? How about we fix the economy and create the right jobs so they can get a mortgage, and their kids can pick up their burger flipping job.

    You see the right problem, but you have the wrong solution.

    I should add, if there were to be an increase in minimum wage, it should be done at the state level, not federal.
    I think you are missing the point.

    Conservatives generally argue that increasing the minimum wage shifts jobs from younger workers to more mature workers, because if employers are going to have to pay a decent wage, they prefer to have more mature workers that possibly require less training and less babysitting. Economic history supports this point of view.

    Someone was arguing that our jobs have shifted away from the middle ages adult and towards the young and older Americans (although someone later succesfully refuted that claim), and they were complaining about that. So I suggested that a possible "fix" for jobs moving away from middle aged folks would be to increase the minimum wage, which has been proven to shift jobs away from younger folks toward middle age folks.

    In otherwords, maybe the fact that min wage hasn't kept up with inflation for at least 5 years, explains or partially explains why jobs have shifted towards younger people and people close to retirement age (if that has happened at all, it's debateable).
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    I've not been wrong about anything. I've given sources for everything I've said.

    Please learn the difference between a total number and a percentage. There's a very large difference and you don't seem to understand it. It's really simple. There are more people in the workforce now than in December 2007. This is indisputable. There is also a lower percentage of capable Americans working than in December 2007. This is indisputable as well.

    However, what people were saying in this thread was that fewer people in the workforce. That was 100% false, as I proved. Please pay attention to important details if you're going to respond to me.
    You DARE to refute his source CNSNews.com? Their fair and balanced is right there in their tag line.

    CNSNews.com
    THE RIGHT NEWS. RIGHT NOW.

    Study after study by the Media Research Center, the parent organization of CNSNews.com, clearly demonstrate a liberal bias in many news outlets bias by commission and bias by omission that results in a frequent double-standard in editorial decisions on what constitutes "news."

    A news source that cites their parent company as a way to somehow appear nonbiased should ALWAYS be trusted.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I think you are missing the point.

    Conservatives generally argue that increasing the minimum wage shifts jobs from younger workers to more mature workers, because if employers are going to have to pay a decent wage, they prefer to have more mature workers that possibly require less training and less babysitting. Economic history supports this point of view.

    Someone was arguing that our jobs have shifted away from the middle ages adult and towards the young and older Americans (although someone later succesfully refuted that claim), and they were complaining about that. So I suggested that a possible "fix" for jobs moving away from middle aged folks would be to increase the minimum wage, which has been proven to shift jobs away from younger folks toward middle age folks.

    In otherwords, maybe the fact that min wage hasn't kept up with inflation for at least 5 years, explains or partially explains why jobs have shifted towards younger people and people close to retirement age (if that has happened at all, it's debateable).
    No, I understand the point. The point was that there are mcjobs, and your solution is increase minimum wage. That is a bandaid, not a solution to poor job creation.
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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    No, I understand the point. The point was that there are mcjobs, and your solution is increase minimum wage. That is a bandaid, not a solution to poor job creation.
    McJobs is all that our youth ever had.

    Young people don't immediately go into professional or high paying jobs. It takes time and/or education to get a better paying job.

    My first job after graduating high school was busing tables for minimum wage. Heck, my first job after college as as an assistant manager trainee at McDonalds.

    Now I really don't understand your point. Are you suggesting that we stop hiring youth to do necessary jobs like working in fast food or collecting buggies in the parking lot of Walmart? Are those not neccessary jobs? And who should do them, if not younger people, 45 year olds with college degrees and years of management experience? I don;t think you you have fully thought out what you are suggesting.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    Because we are failing to make quality jobs/careers available for our youth, we need to increase minimum wage? How about we fix the economy and create the right jobs so they can get a mortgage, and their kids can pick up their burger flipping job.

    You see the right problem, but you have the wrong solution.

    I should add, if there were to be an increase in minimum wage, it should be done at the state level, not federal.

    sorry, but my opinion is that you are the one with the misguided (but well intended) 'solution'
    and here is why: your passage: "... How about we fix the economy and create the right jobs ..."

    the economy is not in need of being 'fixed'. the invisible hand will keep it righted, if only we would not disturb natural economic forces. certainly, government policy and actions strongly influence it, but the economy is normally self sustaining

    which leads to my next objection to your 'solution'. we do not create the right jobs. demand for such jobs are created. and then they are filled by those who possess the knowledge, skills and abilities to perform those jobs

    it was not long ago that it was insisted there was a massive future demand for network administrators. but industry advances/changes caused the demand for such positions to be much weaker than had earlier been imagined
    what we can do is provide access to training for our citizens to assure they have the skills needed to fill those jobs. and by doing so, we also assure the business community that it should expect to find the work force it needs to succeed. at present, there are massive numbers of un-/under-skilled individuals who need work but no jobs requiring those so under-prepared. at the same time, we are importing those with strong STEM skills from other nations - especially asian nations. as an example, my son cannot find enough high end programmers to fill jobs starting at $160,000 - $200,000 per year ... at the same time we have millions who have no skills and no minimum wage job opportunities. our work force is not being trained to meet our economy's future needs

    except for make work programs, such as FDR's Works Progress Administration (WPA), where massive public projected were undertaken to provide jobs rather than jobs being created because of natural economic demand, what you propose going against economic history

    now if you are proposing that our government should re-implement programs such as the WPA and the CCC then i am in agreement with you. but that is the only way jobs are created for workers. otherwise, business' economic demand for employees is what creates new jobs
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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    McJobs is all that our youth ever had.

    Young people don't immediately go into professional or high paying jobs. It takes time and/or education to get a better paying job.

    My first job after graduating high school was busing tables for minimum wage. Heck, my first job after college as as an assistant manager trainee at McDonalds.

    Now I really don't understand your point. Are you suggesting that we stop hiring youth to do necessary jobs like working in fast food or collecting buggies in the parking lot of Walmart? Are those not neccessary jobs? And who should do them, if not younger people, 45 year olds with college degrees and years of management experience? I don;t think you you have fully thought out what you are suggesting.

    Clearly you didn't understand my point.

    Here is the point.

    We need to make quality jobs, not jobs for the sake of making jobs. Those jobs are Mcjobs. They are not intended to support a family of four. To do that, you need a quality job.
    We went from sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me to safe spaces.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 217,000 Jobs in May, Unemployment Rate Stays at 6.3%[W:218]

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    sorry, but my opinion is that you are the one with the misguided (but well intended) 'solution'
    and here is why: your passage: "... How about we fix the economy and create the right jobs ..."

    the economy is not in need of being 'fixed'. the invisible hand will keep it righted, if only we would not disturb natural economic forces. certainly, government policy and actions strongly influence it, but the economy is normally self sustaining

    which leads to my next objection to your 'solution'. we do not create the right jobs. demand for such jobs are created. and then they are filled by those who possess the knowledge, skills and abilities to perform those jobs

    it was not long ago that it was insisted there was a massive future demand for network administrators. but industry advances/changes caused the demand for such positions to be much weaker than had earlier been imagined
    what we can do is provide access to training for our citizens to assure they have the skills needed to fill those jobs. and by doing so, we also assure the business community that it should expect to find the work force it needs to succeed. at present, there are massive numbers of un-/under-skilled individuals who need work but no jobs requiring those so under-prepared. at the same time, we are importing those with strong STEM skills from other nations - especially asian nations. as an example, my son cannot find enough high end programmers to fill jobs starting at $160,000 - $200,000 per year ... at the same time we have millions who have no skills and no minimum wage job opportunities. our work force is not being trained to meet our economy's future needs

    except for make work programs, such as FDR's Works Progress Administration (WPA), where massive public projected were undertaken to provide jobs rather than jobs being created because of natural economic demand, what you propose going against economic history

    now if you are proposing that our government should re-implement programs such as the WPA and the CCC then i am in agreement with you. but that is the only way jobs are created for workers. otherwise, business' economic demand for employees is what creates new jobs
    I really don't think the government should be making jobs. In FDRs time, it was a solution. Today's government should be fostering an environment to make jobs.
    We went from sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me to safe spaces.

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