SurveyUSA Election Poll #21291
But having said this about Florida, that state will do the Republicans any good unless they can also win in Ohio and Virginia plus one more, probably New Hampshire. If the Republican candidate can win every state Romney did plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire, that puts a Republican in the White House in 2016. 270-268 electoral votes. Romney lost Ohio and Virginia by 4% points and New Hampshire by 6 points.
Doable, but it will take the right candidate. But I am a numbers guy and not necessary an ideological guy when it comes to figuring out which state whomever could carry. I doubt Cruz could take any of the 4 states I mentioned.