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Thread: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

  1. #41
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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by shrubnose View Post
    I will be surprised if the GOP is able to win in Florida in 2016, I believe that the demographics there don't favor the GOP.
    Romney only lost Florida 50% to 49% in 2012. I think that shows just how close the two parties are there. Jeb Bush is still very popular down there and he most certainly IMO would win Florida. Remember the panhandle region is solid Republican and resembles Georgia more than the other areas of Florida. Then throw in the Cuban vote, it is very possible but again, it will take the right candidate. Here is the latest polls in Florida's Governor's race, Republican Scott has taken the lead, look at the Cuban break down.

    SurveyUSA Election Poll #21291

    But having said this about Florida, that state will do the Republicans any good unless they can also win in Ohio and Virginia plus one more, probably New Hampshire. If the Republican candidate can win every state Romney did plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire, that puts a Republican in the White House in 2016. 270-268 electoral votes. Romney lost Ohio and Virginia by 4% points and New Hampshire by 6 points.

    Doable, but it will take the right candidate. But I am a numbers guy and not necessary an ideological guy when it comes to figuring out which state whomever could carry. I doubt Cruz could take any of the 4 states I mentioned.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    I suspect you are correct - I really do not think it will be Hillary. Who it will be is anybody's guess right now. But I expect that a variety of factors - demographic, personal and political will all combine to take her out of the race.

    On the GOP side I fully expect a hard right candidate to win - maybe Paul - and we see a repeat of the Goldwater debacle of 64 up and down the ticket from coast to coast with a few obvious exceptions in between where even far right wing crazy will still sell.
    Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    The Dems... the party of Big Unions?
    What's a union?

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    It can be done, Hillary's approval rating among independent voters is on the minus side, 44% to 48%. So we are back to the right candidate, it took an Eisenhower to put a stop to 5 consecutive presidential wins by the Democrats back in 1952. It will probably take someone of that stature to off set the Democratic electoral math advantage in 2016. Who that might be is anyone's guess.
    You're setting the bar really high, Pero.
    The GOP has no candidate of such stature.
    Then again, neither do the Dems.
    No matter how cynical I become toward politicians, it's never enough.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    What's a union?



    If you get married, you and your wife are in a union.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    I think mainstream America pretty much categorizes Cruz in the Palin, Bauchmann, Perry, Santorum and Cain, etc., department.

    I wouldn't take this poll seriously. I assure you that America, generally speaking, doesn't take Cruz seriously.

    It's GREAT to be me. --- "45% liberal/55% conservative"
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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.
    Paul's libertarian beliefs will sink him, of particular note, he is against the public accommodations portion of the CRA of 1964. And there is video of him saying so.


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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by radioman View Post
    You're setting the bar really high, Pero.
    The GOP has no candidate of such stature.
    Then again, neither do the Dems.
    I do not think the Democrats really need a candidate of the stature of IKE. If you take all the states Obama won by 5 points or more and add them up, that is 272 electoral votes. 2 more than what is needed to win. I call those state Democratic trustworthy states. They do not include Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida. The GOP trustworthy states add up to just 191.
    Last edited by Perotista; 06-01-14 at 03:07 PM.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Paul's libertarian beliefs will sink him, of particular note, he is against the public accommodations portion of the CRA of 1964. And there is video of him saying so.
    Everything is hypothetical at this time anyway. Paul does seem to connect with the younger voters though.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.
    If Paul gets the nomination he will get completely and utterly crucified by all his libertarianish positions that are on record. Front and center will be the various civil rights laws and he will come out defending the ability to be a bigot - which might fly on a right leaning site like this one with its libertarian crowd but will absolutely get him killed (politically speaking) with the general public. Paul will be the guy who wants to let bigots turn away minorities from their businesses and it will keep him with the independent voter.

    Like it or not - Romney had the best shot to overcome the electoral math you pointed out - and even then he lost. So who replaces Romney and is able to get by the far right loons?
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