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Thread: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    lol. gg

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    He's optimistic to say the least.
    He's wrong but optimistic.
    I suppose we could wait until Q2 results to prove that you're wrong.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    If that were the case, one would also expect to see news stories of these severe shipping delays as they occurred. Instead, what you find are reports of low demand for exports (not due to the weather, but poor economic conditions overseas).
    There were mentions of the weather in economic releases. Of course, weather is just one factor. Some examples of weather-related impacts in the economic releases:

    From the January retail sales report (released on February 13):

    The latest report suggests that fourth quarter GDP may be revised down and that first quarter GDP could be soft. Again, atypically adverse weather likely affected the data.

    From the January existing home sales report (released on February 21):

    Weather was especially cold in January and no doubt contributed to the sales weakness, especially in the Midwest, where sales fell 7.1 percent in the month, and also the Northeast where the decline was 3.1 percent.

    From the Philadelphia Fed’s February 2014 survey:

    Shipments, suffering from a lack of orders and also from weather effects, fell dramatically, down 22 points to minus 9.9. The weather effect is evident in delivery times, which slowed 5.7 points to 2.9.

    Weather is a temporary effect and isn't holding down the longer term outlook in the sample as six-month readings are all strongly positive led by a 6.8 point gain for general conditions to 40.2.


    Note: That latter observation is one of the reasons one should expect a rebound from Q1’s data (possibly with real annualized growth in the 3%-4% range with some upside potential).

    From the Fed’s Beige Book that was released on March 5:

    New York and Philadelphia experienced a slight decline in activity, which was mostly attributed to the unusually severe weather experienced in those regions… Retail sales growth weakened since the previous report for most Districts, as severe winter weather limited activity… Weather was also cited as a contributing factor to softer auto sales in many Districts… Manufacturing sales and production in several Districts were negatively impacted by severe winter weather…

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    I suppose we could wait until Q2 results to prove that you're wrong.
    What ?

    Growth of .1 percent ?

    .5 percent ?

    Whatever the "improvements" are we still have a economy thats on life support.

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    What ?

    Growth of .1 percent ?

    .5 percent ?

    Whatever the "improvements" are we still have a economy thats on life support.
    Which just goes to show how poorly informed and educated most liberals are regarding economic issues. To a liberal who believes in European socialism 1-3% economic growth is booming. Coming off the recession of 2007-09 that economic growth is meager at best. Have noticed how liberals love to use the percentage change argument when it comes to Reagan/Bush economic results but never Obama's. Wonder why? could it be that Reagan Doubled GDP and had a 60% increase in FIT revenue with his tax cuts? After the 81-82 Carter double dip, Reagan had 7.5% GDP growth. That shows what leadership can and will do.

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    U.S. GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter - WSJ.com

    "he U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014, the latest stumble for a recovery that has struggled to find its footing since the recession ended almost five years ago."



    The "recovery" is over.


    I may be slow, but when, precisely did it start?
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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by 99percenter View Post
    He hasn't done anything. The do nothing republican congress won't let him. They are content on continuing the GBR.
    Congress?

    The one where he has a clear majority in the Senate? The one where he had a complete majority for the first two years? Where he triggered this "recovery" and glowingly promised an Obamaphone in every hand? The one where he characterized his fellow and duly elected law makers "enemies"?

    That congress?

    And here I thought it was the fault of the founding fathers, where in a speech this past week stated the equal senate was at the heart of his problems....never mind the fact he has had a somewhat unprecedented majority in the senate for six years.

    Come on. It's time to stop whining.
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    Actually, pretty much everyone agrees there were other reasons for bad indicators and that weather does not come close to explaining it all. The pent-up demand is probably true, which is why some of the indicators look better right now.
    Interesting that the Obama camp would want to try playing the weather game. Apparently unaware of a northern neighbor that suffered far worse winter weather, interruptions in home heating oil supply in the east and other tragedies, and outperformed the US again.

    There is nothing too minor to which they will apportion blame for Obama's failures.
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
    Donald Trump, 11/23/17

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    Congress?

    The one where he has a clear majority in the Senate? The one where he had a complete majority for the first two years? Where he triggered this "recovery" and glowingly promised an Obamaphone in every hand? The one where he characterized his fellow and duly elected law makers "enemies"?

    That congress?

    And here I thought it was the fault of the founding fathers, where in a speech this past week stated the equal senate was at the heart of his problems....never mind the fact he has had a somewhat unprecedented majority in the senate for six years.

    Come on. It's time to stop whining.
    It is always going to be something with the Obama Apologists who never accept responsibility for the incompetence of this Administration. Now it is Congress's fault when Democrats controlled the Congress from 2007-2011 and I don't hear liberals blaming Congress for the recession that began in December 2007, one year after Democrats won control, yet still blame Bush. Guess it only matters who is in the WH. Bush President with a Democrat Congress, economy is Bush's fault. Obama President with a Democrat and then split Congress, economy is Congress's fault. Think I have the liberal logic down now.

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    Re: GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    It is always going to be something with the Obama Apologists who never accept responsibility for the incompetence of this Administration. Now it is Congress's fault when Democrats controlled the Congress from 2007-2011 and I don't hear liberals blaming Congress for the recession that began in December 2007, one year after Democrats won control, yet still blame Bush. Guess it only matters who is in the WH. Bush President with a Democrat Congress, economy is Bush's fault. Obama President with a Democrat and then split Congress, economy is Congress's fault. Think I have the liberal logic down now.

    I agree, but I would not be so sure about having it down. I have found that the "progressives" of the US tend to have a rather fluid idea of logic, similar to their views on truth, ethics, and honesty.
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
    Donald Trump, 11/23/17

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