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Thread: China and Russia Best Frenemies

  1. #11
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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    China and Russia: Best frenemies | The Economist

    It seems that the American public really doesn't get what's happening here, nor do the Western Europeans.

    Charles Krauthammer: With a $400-billion gas deal, China and Russia build an anti-Western superpower | National Post

    As mentioned in an earlier thread Russia and China are working together to build a Canal/Rail system across Nicaragua to compete with Panama and which will carry larger much container vessels.

    How would George Kennan respond to Nicaragua

    And while all this is going on the US President cannot even approve the Keystone Pipeline, secure water or energy supplies, or pay attention to what is going on in the world. It's all small-time Chicago politics and the country is paying the price for their remarkable shortsightedness.
    I question if you actually understand this topic.

    China just screwed Russia. Hard. Not as bad as it was with Iran, but Putin agreed to a terrible deal because he had no choice. China's getting cheap gas because Russia has no one else to sell it to. How that makes us worried, I don't know.

    As for the rail system, let them do it. That will cost a huge amount of money. Especially since the Panama canal is undergoing a retrofit for much larger ships. Plus competition lower prices. This is bad because....

    Russia has a large number of tactical nukes pointed at China. In some ways, Russia is threatened more by China's growing resource demands, population and rising power. Russia is on the decline and there will be huge tensions between the two in the next decade. But I don't think you understand how or why that's going to happen.

    Furthermore, all of this would be happening regardless of who was in office.

    Try to hide your "I Hate Obama" sticker better next time.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

  2. #12
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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    China and Russia: Best frenemies | The Economist

    It seems that the American public really doesn't get what's happening here, nor do the Western Europeans.

    Charles Krauthammer: With a $400-billion gas deal, China and Russia build an anti-Western superpower | National Post

    As mentioned in an earlier thread Russia and China are working together to build a Canal/Rail system across Nicaragua to compete with Panama and which will carry larger much container vessels.

    How would George Kennan respond to Nicaragua

    And while all this is going on the US President cannot even approve the Keystone Pipeline, secure water or energy supplies, or pay attention to what is going on in the world. It's all small-time Chicago politics and the country is paying the price for their remarkable shortsightedness.
    As others have repeatedly noted $400 billion over 30 years comes out to less than $13 billion per year--minus infrastructure investments. This is will have a relatively minor impact. Furthermore it was a pretty terrible deal since the Russians were forced to sell at a major discount. They cut the deal in order to float some positive news and inject some confidence into their economic forecast.

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by votemout View Post
    Not really China is making all kinds of deal world wide, Not using the USD. which is weird because they have 3 trillion in reserves of USD.
    You really think the FSU states are going to take RMB for their big deals? Not a chance. The Yuan has so many obstacles to overcome before it's a reserve currency. Furthermore, the Chinese have a clear benefit from using the USD as a decline in its value directly impacts its central bank holdings. The Chinese have a balancing act. They need a strong dollar to keep their currency reserve and debt holdings valuable, but they also need a weak dollar to keep exports to the US competitive. And they don't have technically "3 trillion in reserves of USD." They have debt notes. They're not sitting on that kind of actual cash. It's used to purchase US debt and the money goes back to US.

    The biggest problem with the RMB is that there isn't trust in the PRC Central Bank. It's a reason why only a few currencies, such as the Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen and Swiss Franc have trust on the open market.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    As others have repeatedly noted $400 billion over 30 years comes out to less than $13 billion per year--minus infrastructure investments. This is will have a relatively minor impact.
    Sssshhhh. Don't crush the not so subtle "I Hate Obama" thread.

    Plus, Russia's getting ****ed on the pricing. But I can't expect a partisan hack like the OP much less Krauthammer to understand that.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    This is absolutely ludicrous.

    Chinas population will collapse in the following decades and they both have nuclear weapons, how in the name of god is China going to "take it from them".
    It is extremely dangerous to assume that conventional conflict cannot occur between nuclear powers or coalitions. Such assumptions could lead to catastrophic outcomes. That being said I think the prospect of Chinese military intervention into Siberia is very low, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a flashpoint emerge in Central Asia.

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    You really think the FSU states are going to take RMB for their big deals? Not a chance. The Yuan has so many obstacles to overcome before it's a reserve currency. Furthermore, the Chinese have a clear benefit from using the USD as a decline in its value directly impacts its central bank holdings. The Chinese have a balancing act. They need a strong dollar to keep their currency reserve and debt holdings valuable, but they also need a weak dollar to keep exports to the US competitive. And they don't have technically "3 trillion in reserves of USD." They have debt notes. They're not sitting on that kind of actual cash. It's used to purchase US debt and the money goes back to US.

    The biggest problem with the RMB is that there isn't trust in the PRC Central Bank. It's a reason why only a few currencies, such as the Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen and Swiss Franc have trust on the open market.
    China, Russia to drop dollar in bilateral trade - MarketWatch

    7 Countries Considering Abandoning the US Dollar (and What It Means) – Currency Trading.net

    China Busy Signing Currency Deals - Forbes

    China is making deals all over the world outside of the USD.
    WHen we lose the reserve status look the dollar will collapse.

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by votemout View Post
    Look at the value of these deals. They're a joke.

    Besides, the first sign of trouble with the RMB will see huge flocks returning to the dollar.

    There is no trust with the RMB and that will limit just how far it can rise as a backbone currency.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Look at the value of these deals. They're a joke.

    Besides, the first sign of trouble with the RMB will see huge flocks returning to the dollar.

    There is no trust with the RMB and that will limit just how far it can rise as a backbone currency.
    Ok Ok one last link.

    China-Russia currency agreement further threatens U.S. dollar

    China-Russia currency agreement further threatens U.S. dollar

  9. #19
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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by votemout View Post
    Ok Ok one last link.

    China-Russia currency agreement further threatens U.S. dollar

    China-Russia currency agreement further threatens U.S. dollar
    Meh. Russia is becoming more and more isolated. Moving to Ruble or RMB deals doesn't impact us as long as Germany still requires payment in dollars of Euros. I seriously doubt German firms much less German banks will agree to Ruble deals and Germany is one of the largest trading partners of Russia. And I suspect that Russia is going to eventually wake up and realize that the Central Bank of China isn't something they can trust over the Fed. They'll likely keep deals relatively small as the currency underlying the deals simply doesn't have the kind of investor support. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some clauses that require payment in another currency in the event things go south. The Chinese remember what happened to the Ruble and the Russians cannot trust the Chinese central bank. This I think is a marriage of convenience rather than anything long term.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

  10. #20
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    Re: China and Russia Best Frenemies

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Meh. Russia is becoming more and more isolated.
    Fun fact: most of the world's countries and population live south of the United States, Europe, and Russia. Tell me how many of those countries are shutting out Russia in any way before talking **** about them being "isolated" in a regurgitation of Western propaganda. I do agree with you that the deal is being overblown as it regards Sino-Russian relations, but this does reflect that they are not being isolated.
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