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Thread: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

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    UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    'May 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday cut its estimate of recoverable oil in California's Monterey shale by 96 percent, casting doubt on what was once thought to be America's next major energy play.

    In what could be welcome news for environmentalists and a potentially bad omen for oil drillers, such as Venoco Inc, with large leases in the region, the EIA slashed its forecast of technically recoverable reserves, citing production difficulties from initial wells.

    The reserves were downgraded by 96 percent, from 13.7 billion barrels estimated by a government-funded report in 2011, to just 600 million barrels, the EIA said. A detailed report is expected to be released next month.'

    UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct | Reuters

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    I have read many times that U.S. shale oil reserves estimates are often overly - and sometimes wildly - optimistic in terms of practically recoverable oil.

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    Did you trust them when they said they were higher, or do you just trust them now that they say they are lower? Looks like someone got them to say what someone wanted to hear.

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    Quote Originally Posted by CalGun View Post
    Did you trust them when they said they were higher, or do you just trust them now that they say they are lower?
    Don't think it makes a difference. Higher or lower... they were off by 96%!! How can place any trust in something that could be so wrong?

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears

    'U.S. officials cut estimate of recoverable Monterey Shale oil by 96%
    May 20, 2014

    Federal energy authorities have slashed by 96% the estimated amount of recoverable oil buried in California's vast Monterey Shale deposits, deflating its potential as a national "black gold mine" of petroleum.

    Just 600 million barrels of oil can be extracted with existing technology, far below the 13.7 billion barrels once thought recoverable from the jumbled layers of subterranean rock spread across much of Central California, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

    The new estimate, expected to be released publicly next month, is a blow to the nation's oil future and to projections that an oil boom would bring as many as 2.8 million new jobs to California and boost tax revenue by $24.6 billion annually.

    The 2011 estimate was done by the Virginia engineering firm Intek Inc.

    Christopher Dean, senior associate at Intek, said Tuesday that the firm's work "was very broad, giving the federal government its first shot at an estimate of recoverable oil in the Monterey Shale. They got more data over time and refined the estimate."
    (Source)'

    The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears | Zero Hedge

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    Quote Originally Posted by CalGun View Post
    Did you trust them when they said they were higher, or do you just trust them now that they say they are lower? Looks like someone got them to say what someone wanted to hear.
    I did not trust them when they said they were higher...neither did others:


    '“We have deceived ourselves into thinking that since we have an infinite resource, we don’t need to worry,” Tad Patzek, chair of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at the University of Texas at Austin, told Bloomberg recently. “We are stumbling like blind people into a future which is not as pretty as we think.”

    Alarm bells have in fact been ringing for some time now and in all the places you might expect to hear them.

    “Instead of having a 100-year supply of natural gas, a large portion of this coming from shale, the U.S. is likely going to be faced with a deliverability crisis over the next few years,” warned Bill Powers, independent analyst and author of Cold Hungry and In the Dark, in comments made to BNN commodities guru Andrew Bell nearly three months ago. “Demand is continuing to rise and supplies are flattening and may start to decline in 2014.”

    “Many of [the U.S. government] projections [for growing shale gas production] are not based on any empirical fact whatsoever,” said Powers.'


    Energy Watch: Will the shale gas revolution be short-lived? - BNN News



    U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles...-staying-power



    From Jim Rogers:

    'Wednesday, June 26, 2013

    US Natural gas, oil shale overhyped
    Regarding natural gas, the fundamentals on the ground are not nearly as good as the hype. The number of rigs on the ground has gone down 75% the last couple of years, as the wells are very short-lived, and it takes an enormous amount of money to keep them up. A number of companies have had to lower estimates of their reserves.

    As for oil shale, typical wells deplete at 38 per cent the first year. Thus you need a lot of drilling, money, and a high price to keep up production rates. All you have to do is go out in the oil patch. I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.'


    http://www.jimrogers.info/2013/06/us...overhyped.html
    Last edited by DA60; 05-23-14 at 03:09 AM.

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    "A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons." --Hillary Rodham Clinton
    "Innocent until proven guilty is for criminal convictions, not elections." --Mitt Romney

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Don't think it makes a difference. Higher or lower... they were off by 96%!! How can place any trust in something that could be so wrong?
    I don't believe a word they say, either the oil industry or the government that "regulates" it.

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    So they are good estimates now that they fit your agenda, but when they didn't fit your agenda they were bad estimates? Is that safe to say based on what you just wrote here?


    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I did not trust them when they said they were higher...neither did others:


    '“We have deceived ourselves into thinking that since we have an infinite resource, we don’t need to worry,” Tad Patzek, chair of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at the University of Texas at Austin, told Bloomberg recently. “We are stumbling like blind people into a future which is not as pretty as we think.”

    Alarm bells have in fact been ringing for some time now and in all the places you might expect to hear them.

    “Instead of having a 100-year supply of natural gas, a large portion of this coming from shale, the U.S. is likely going to be faced with a deliverability crisis over the next few years,” warned Bill Powers, independent analyst and author of Cold Hungry and In the Dark, in comments made to BNN commodities guru Andrew Bell nearly three months ago. “Demand is continuing to rise and supplies are flattening and may start to decline in 2014.”

    “Many of [the U.S. government] projections [for growing shale gas production] are not based on any empirical fact whatsoever,” said Powers.'


    Energy Watch: Will the shale gas revolution be short-lived? - BNN News



    U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power

    U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power - Businessweek



    From Jim Rogers:

    'Wednesday, June 26, 2013

    US Natural gas, oil shale overhyped
    Regarding natural gas, the fundamentals on the ground are not nearly as good as the hype. The number of rigs on the ground has gone down 75% the last couple of years, as the wells are very short-lived, and it takes an enormous amount of money to keep them up. A number of companies have had to lower estimates of their reserves.

    As for oil shale, typical wells deplete at 38 per cent the first year. Thus you need a lot of drilling, money, and a high price to keep up production rates. All you have to do is go out in the oil patch. I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.'


    Jim Rogers: US Natural gas, oil shale overhyped

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    Re: UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

    OK, so recoverable oil is not in California. Frack California..... See what I did here? LOL.
    The ghost of Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2016

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