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Thread: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Well, if you had a nominal understanding of the issue, you'd know it's connecting the IPCC predictions with actual observations in different datasets and displaying the margins of error for each.
    No, I wanted you to show the data source...

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    No, I wanted you to show the data source...
    Well, you could have asked.

    It's from Tamino.

    http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/compare2.jpg

    Here's some info on the source, so you don't bunch your panties, since I know you won't argue the content at this point.

    http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org...nos-open-mind/
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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Well, you could have asked.

    It's from Tamino.

    http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/compare2.jpg

    Here's some info on the source, so you don't bunch your panties, since I know you won't argue the content at this point.

    http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org...nos-open-mind/
    That's funny... I had a feeling they played with the numbers to say something the data does not support.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Interestingly enough, it wasnt me who said it adds nothing new. I also see you reference nothing that I disagree with in the paper. But then again,you seem to rarely know what you are talking about.
    YOu agree that it adds nothing new, you have already said as much. You disagree with the information it DOES provide, however, because it discusses that the models on which AGW is based are critically flawed as evidenced by their inability to match the real climate record.

    Are you saying that you accept that the models are indeed wrong as the paper states, a fact that the reviewers state is common knowledge? Because to do that you have to accept that the forcings used in these models are also wrong.
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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    You keep presenting this paper as something separate from the IPCC. It's very odd. It's almost like you don't know this....but I've seen you cite this source a dozen times and you never refer to it as the IPCC report.

    This paper, which you refer to as Baede, is chapter 1 of the IPCC WG1.
    IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    And they have quantified the feedbacks later in the report.

    Well let's look at your chart.
    According to Baede et al, the direct response for a doubling of CO2 would
    be an energy imbalance of 4 Wm−2. which would cause a temperature increase of 1.2°C.
    So Your chart says they expect an additional energy imbalance of 1.6 Wm−2.
    Listed as "total net anthropogenic"
    1.2°C/4 Wm−2= .3 °C per Wm-2,
    .3 °C per Wm-2 * 1.6 Wm−2= .48 °C
    Wow, Scary, So if we add together the accepted response of CO2 (1.2°C),
    with the predicted "total net anthropogenic" ( .48 °C)
    We get a wopping 1.68 °C, by the time we double CO2.
    Since we are about 50% through the effects of doubling CO2,
    and the observed record shows a .8 increase, we are spot on
    for hitting that 1.68 °C number, (within the margin of error).
    The problem is the 1.68 °C over 200 years is not alarming.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    That's funny... I had a feeling they played with the numbers to say something the data does not support.
    Well, its functionally the same representation the IPCC gives in their own summary.

    I dont have the graphic handy here - but I dont think I'll bother since you'll dismiss it out of hand anyway in another stunning display of ignorance and hand waving.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    YOu agree that it adds nothing new, you have already said as much. You disagree with the information it DOES provide, however, because it discusses that the models on which AGW is based are critically flawed as evidenced by their inability to match the real climate record.

    Are you saying that you accept that the models are indeed wrong as the paper states, a fact that the reviewers state is common knowledge? Because to do that you have to accept that the forcings used in these models are also wrong.

    I dont know what thread you've been reading, but its not this one.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Well let's look at your chart.
    According to Baede et al, the direct response for a doubling of CO2 would
    be an energy imbalance of 4 Wm−2. which would cause a temperature increase of 1.2°C.
    So Your chart says they expect an additional energy imbalance of 1.6 Wm−2.
    Listed as "total net anthropogenic"
    1.2°C/4 Wm−2= .3 °C per Wm-2,
    .3 °C per Wm-2 * 1.6 Wm−2= .48 °C
    Wow, Scary, So if we add together the accepted response of CO2 (1.2°C),
    with the predicted "total net anthropogenic" ( .48 °C)
    We get a wopping 1.68 °C, by the time we double CO2.
    Since we are about 50% through the effects of doubling CO2,
    and the observed record shows a .8 increase, we are spot on
    for hitting that 1.68 °C number, (within the margin of error).
    The problem is the 1.68 °C over 200 years is not alarming.
    You mean Baede, et al (which would be referred to as Chapter 1 of WG1 of the IPCC AR5, in non-bizarro land) differs from the IPCC later on in the WG1 report?

    So the IPCC disagrees with the IPCC, which both disagree with the conclusion of the IPCC.

    That would make little sense. But what would make MUCH more sense is that your interpretation of both Chapter 1 and the above graphic is totally wrong.

    I'm guessing the latter.

    And before you whine.... I'm not going to put the work into figuring out your errors....its akin to having a third grader come up to me when I'm working on my car and telling me the flux capacitor setting is miscalculated to 1.574 instead of 2.105 and I need to adjust the velocity indicator switch. The best response is not to get into a discussion about the setting on the capacitor.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    I dont know what thread you've been reading, but its not this one.
    Since the paper was rejected for presenting nothing new, and what the paper presented was that the IPCC models and the climate record are producing clearly different results, and the reviewers quite clearly argued that the divergent models and climate record are expected, then support for rejecting the paper on those grounds is, by default, support for the paper's conclusions, however pedestrian they may have been.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Thankfully fuels are not clothing accessories, or cars, where people place
    artificial subjective values on them.
    Also we are not asking the oil refineries to make a moral decision, it will strictly be the numbers.
    When it becomes less expensive (for the refinery) to make their own feedstock, rather than pay
    to get it out of the ground, they will switch. The change will not occur all at once, as they pay
    different prices for their supplies, based on it's source.

    I have read quite a few of the technical papers related to AGW, I originally thought
    the AGW crowd was saying the additional forcing was an unknown artifact of CO2,
    Which was very unlikely.
    Peeling away the layers, it became clear that the additional forcing was a collection
    of predicted open loop feedback, that they believed would happen.
    None of these feedbacks had actually been quantified, but they could happen.
    From Baede et al,
    http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/tar-01.pdf

    FYI, this paper is where the IPCC gets it's range, and is cited in IPCC 5.
    When we look at the instrument evidence for these feedback that
    amplify CO2's response, they are small to nonexistent.
    there is no extra energy hiding in the deep ocean, or elsewhere,
    the energy was not delayed in leaving earth, because the predicted
    additional feedback failed to materialize, as a major factor.
    We will likely exceed Baede's low range number, but the mid to high range
    does not look probable at this point.
    Like the curve shows, we have seen about 51% of the direct response of
    doubling CO2. Temperatures have increased by .8 °C.
    According to the IPCC's key cited source,(and accepted Physics),
    that 51% should equal .6 °C of warming. (51% of 1.2°C).
    If the additional feedbacks exists, they must be within the remaining .2°C.
    no alarm, no panic, warming and sea levels increases,
    like humans has been seeing for over 2000 years.
    Again, I don't know what we don't know. Scientist are saying something a little different.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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