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Thread: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    The trouble is neither of us are scientists. We don't know what we don't no. I've tried to communicate this to you. No matter what you figure, we don't know what we don't know. No matter how you feel about scientists, they're not idiots. So, you need something better than they're either stupid or in conspiracy.
    You don't need a B.Sc. To understand science enough, hell, even high school level physics is enough to show the fallacy.

    No, they are not idiots, they know exactly the game they are playing. Either that, or they simply drank their own kook-aid, and figure if they simply tweek co2 values that they will get the climate figured out.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    The fisherman comment is a bit of sarcasm, related to checking peoples work.
    I have worked professionally as a principle investigator, on may research efforts,
    mostly physics and optics.
    What you keep dodging, is that their numbers do not add up for the mid to high range
    of their predictions.
    True, that we cannot possible know what all the variables are,
    but the direct response for CO2 is a known variable, that when accounted for
    does not leave much room for the additional forcing, necessary for the catastrophic
    warnings of AGW to be valid.
    In post #637, I showed you the math and the graphical representation of the math,
    to validate what I am saying.
    As I said, please check my math, if my calculations are incorrect, point it out.
    I have no issues finding out I am wrong about something.
    I don't know they don't add up, as I don't know what I don't know. And I have no reason to accept it on anyone's word here. I've seen many people over the years make good sounding arguments the eventually prove wrong. So, I ask myself if you are correct why don't experts know it. I can only think of three possibilities:

    1) They know your numbers, but are hiding it in some conspiracy.

    2). They're stupid and don't know what they're doing.

    Or

    3) you're missing something in your equation or in your understanding.

    Absent another explanation, I have to side with you're missing something as I don't believe the first two.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    You don't need a B.Sc. To understand science enough, hell, even high school level physics is enough to show the fallacy.

    No, they are not idiots, they know exactly the game they are playing. Either that, or they simply drank their own kook-aid, and figure if they simply tweek co2 values that they will get the climate figured out.
    No, it's more likely they merely know more. Sorry I don't buy your explanation.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    New White House report: Climate change is here and action needed now - CNN.com



    Did you hear that? That was your taxes about to skyrocket.

    By "action" I assume that means "to become poorer and weaker with new heavy taxing" as the ONLY solution..

    who knew the dinosaurs drove cars and were industrious...?

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    No, it's more likely they merely know more. Sorry I don't buy your explanation.
    Ok, imagine other sciences having 20 year track record of a failing hypothesis, with margins of error that is wider than the variability being measured... Can you think of another scientific discipline where this is acceptable?

    Changing terms is another sign.... Was global warming, then climate disruption, climate change... Which is funny because climate change might as well be called "natural variability", except there are going to be problems because human activity might change the climate a small fraction of a degree relative to natural variability.

    They simply don't understand the climate... Trying to look for the shortcut with co2 is fallacious. They might as well be guessing.

    Consider the complexity of projecting weather patterns, run that level of environmental model, but global in scale, and it might start to approach a viable model.... But even at those small scales, the margin for error reaches a coin flip odds at about 2 weeks out.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I don't know they don't add up, as I don't know what I don't know. And I have no reason to accept it on anyone's word here. I've seen many people over the years make good sounding arguments the eventually prove wrong. So, I ask myself if you are correct why don't experts know it. I can only think of three possibilities:

    1) They know your numbers, but are hiding it in some conspiracy.

    2). They're stupid and don't know what they're doing.

    Or

    3) you're missing something in your equation or in your understanding.

    Absent another explanation, I have to side with you're missing something as I don't believe the first two.
    There is a fourth possibility.
    Everything I am saying is within the enormous range of the IPCC's prediction,
    http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima..._SPM_FINAL.pdf
    Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C
    There is nothing alarming about the low end of the IPCC predictions.
    My calculations, show, we will likely have about 1.6 °C total increase,
    if we could ever actually burn enough organic hydrocarbons to get to 560 ppm.
    I don't think that will happen, because the cost curves will cross long before then.
    When man made fuels become cheaper than organic sources, people will buy what is cheaper.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    Then link to the papers and make points about the most recent failure of the warmists.

    Do you not realize the difference between a scientific paper and an inion survey?

    Opinion surveys, EVEN WHEN THEY ACTUALLY TALK TO THE PEOPLE GIVING ANSWERS, are NOT scientific. They did not even talk to people, they looked at papers WRITTEN BY AGW SCIENTISTS, WHO MAKE MONEY ALARMING ABOUT AGW, AND STILL they could not keep 100% support.

    What would happen if they ASKED those scientists? Would it drop down to 80%? Then include scientists in all disciplines, does it drop to 47% ?

    Hell, even If that was a meta study of climate science papers that would be more scientific than this tripe.

    Why do you think I'm throwing out all these other equivalent "studies"?

    97-98 % of :
    - motorists prefer cheap gas
    - monkeys like bananas
    - catholic priests prefer little boys

    Don't you see how meaningless it is?
    I did link to it. A paper from PNAS. I don't know how much clearer it can be.... It's a review of published papers. It's not a poll, it's not an opinion survey.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    I did link to it. A paper from PNAS. I don't know how much clearer it can be.... It's a review of published papers. It's not a poll, it's not an opinion survey.
    Ya, I know, I read the link... It's opinion survey derived from published papers. It's useless in proving anything beyond making the case that the alarmists will publish anything that supports their cause.

    If it was a meta analysis going into averages of multiple studies on the same topic, that's one thing, but this is scientifically useless.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    There is a fourth possibility.
    Everything I am saying is within the enormous range of the IPCC's prediction,
    http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima..._SPM_FINAL.pdf

    There is nothing alarming about the low end of the IPCC predictions.
    My calculations, show, we will likely have about 1.6 °C total increase,
    if we could ever actually burn enough organic hydrocarbons to get to 560 ppm.
    I don't think that will happen, because the cost curves will cross long before then.
    When man made fuels become cheaper than organic sources, people will buy what is cheaper.
    I have no doubt people will buy what is cheaper. But it helps to have motivation to make something cheaper.

    I also note your link draws a very different conclusion than you do. Often the interpretation of the numbers is what is important. With interpretation, why ignore those who know the most?

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    Ok, imagine other sciences having 20 year track record of a failing hypothesis, with margins of error that is wider than the variability being measured... Can you think of another scientific discipline where this is acceptable?

    Changing terms is another sign.... Was global warming, then climate disruption, climate change... Which is funny because climate change might as well be called "natural variability", except there are going to be problems because human activity might change the climate a small fraction of a degree relative to natural variability.

    They simply don't understand the climate... Trying to look for the shortcut with co2 is fallacious. They might as well be guessing.

    Consider the complexity of projecting weather patterns, run that level of environmental model, but global in scale, and it might start to approach a viable model.... But even at those small scales, the margin for error reaches a coin flip odds at about 2 weeks out.
    No, your just seeking things to lack onto. And frankly, we see much if what they predicted.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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