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Thread: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I have to disagree, some, there are levels of understanding Science.
    Like the approximations in a mathematics formula.
    It 's not that the numbers change based on more understanding, they just get more accurate.
    I like to use road trip analogies, as most people have some experience in planning and driving.
    Someone plans a trip to another city that is 200 miles away.
    They want some idea of how long the trip will take, and how much gas they will use.
    The basic variables, are, route taken, road conditions, number of stops, ect.
    A non traffic interstate, with no stops cold do the trip in 3 hours, and 10 gallons of gas
    The older hwy route, going through towns, say 6 hours, and 12 gallons of gas.
    This would be the first approximation.
    An Engineer asked the same question, may also want to know the weather conditions,
    and speed limits in the states passed.
    With the added information, the results could be refined to within a 15 min window,
    and quart of gasoline,based on the input info.
    This would be the second approximation.
    The Scientist, might get the department of transportation data,
    and average the time 100,000 drivers took to make the trip on the primary route.
    They could tell the average time, likely down to the minute,
    and the average amount of gasoline likely used on the trip.
    This would be the third approximation.
    All three approximations still fall into the 3 to 6 hours, and 10 to 12 gallons of gasoline,
    the layman driver calculated.
    The added information, improved the accuracy, but did not change the time fuel window.
    On more simplistic examples, like you enumerate, maybe. But we're talking about something not within the novice domain. It'd be more like me practicing medicine without a license. I might actually get a few things right, but I'd ultimately fail due to what I didn't fully understand.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

  2. #542
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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    That's part of the problem. The models don't agree, they use differing values for supposedly known variables (like CO2 sensitivity) and still claim it is settled science.

    If AGW were settled science there would be only one model and it would be in agreement with observed climate data.
    that is what i would think. you would need 150 models. with only 3 being anywhere close to the actual observed data.
    i can say that you would want different models to forcast or try to forcast future events, but they should be built off 1 baseline model
    that can match the observed data.

    from there your forcasts can be predicted but as you get more observed data they will need to be corrected from the baseline control.

    the IPCC doesn't have this. they have taken the data and manipulated it to get the results they want then say it is settled.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    The fact is they don't know. They have admitted that they are not exactly sure how earths climate works on long term trends. Therefore at this point they are simply guessing.

    actually that is not correct there are several layers to an appeal to authority in which it can be used as a fallacy.

    For example: “Well, Isaac Newton believed in Alchemy, do you think you know more than Isaac Newton?”

    is basically what you did. scientist X knows more therefore who are you to question what they do.
    an appeal to authority can be made in several different ways.

    trying to shoot down someone's argument simply because they are not an expert is one of those ways.
    stating that we are not allowed to question someone's motives or conclusions because we are not experts is another.
    Again, they are better qualified. They give us the best information possible. And as I remember very well the arguments against smoking causing cancer and be unhealthy, arguments made by novices with a the help of a few industry hacks, I won't accept the same logic used in any other argument. Most simply don't know enough. And arguing that your correct because you don't know isn't logical, even if you stayed at a Holiday Inn.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Again, either you accept science or you don't. That's the issue here.
    Until it is uncoupled from the hysterical politics it is just not credible.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Again, either you accept science or you don't. That's the issue here.
    sit down shut up and do what they say right? typical liberal attitude.

    science is not sit down shut up and accept what we say. science is constantly questioned and there is a great deal of questions that have to do with how the IPCC is operating.
    the NIPCC is made up of a group of scientists that actually use to work for the IPCC and quit for different reasons.

    while their graphs show warming trends it is not near as bad as what the IPCC claims.

    the meer fact that the IPCC was trashed for using non-peer reviewed material in their paper simply because it supported the AGW movement speaks volumes of how scientific they are.

    I also find it interesting is that there is not an independant outside scientific board that does the peer review. the people doing the peer review are the same people that support AGW.

    that is like asking a fox to keep the weasel out of the hen house.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Until it is uncoupled from the hysterical politics it is just not credible.
    Wrong. The science stands by itself.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Until it is uncoupled from the hysterical politics it is just not credible.
    there is to much money involved in AGW right now. The fact that scientists are threatened with the jobs and funding unless they comply with AGW beleivers says there is even more dishonesty going on with this group to say the least.

    as mentioned before the head of the IPCC isn't even a climatist. he is an industrial engineer and an economist who has ties to major green energy companies and carbon trading companies.

    so he has vested interest in keeping this thing going.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    On more simplistic examples, like you enumerate, maybe. But we're talking about something not within the novice domain. It'd be more like me practicing medicine without a license. I might actually get a few things right, but I'd ultimately fail due to what I didn't fully understand.
    It actually is that simple, that is why they have such a big range in the predictions.
    Not only do they not know what all the variables that affect the feedbacks are,
    For many they cannot even tell if the feedback will be positive or negative.
    An example, Extra heat causes humidity to increase, causing more clouds.
    Do cloudy conditions add to, or take away from total warming?

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Wrong. The science stands by itself.
    if it stood by itself then they shouldn't have such a hard time trying to convience people. more so they wouldn't have to hijack a real term "climate change" to push their agenda.
    their global warming term failed so they hijacked a real term.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    sit down shut up and do what they say right? typical liberal attitude.

    science is not sit down shut up and accept what we say. science is constantly questioned and there is a great deal of questions that have to do with how the IPCC is operating.
    the NIPCC is made up of a group of scientists that actually use to work for the IPCC and quit for different reasons.

    while their graphs show warming trends it is not near as bad as what the IPCC claims.

    the meer fact that the IPCC was trashed for using non-peer reviewed material in their paper simply because it supported the AGW movement speaks volumes of how scientific they are.

    I also find it interesting is that there is not an independant outside scientific board that does the peer review. the people doing the peer review are the same people that support AGW.

    that is like asking a fox to keep the weasel out of the hen house.
    Hardly. When I'm ill, I go to a doctor and not an the sales clerk at Walmart. there's a reason for that. I rightly assume the doctor knows more. The same works with science. They provide the best possible information.

    You sport a lot above that has not been supported. The agencies you speak of are still widely accepted out side the denier bubble.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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