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Thread: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    You do not comprehend well do you? My statement was inclusive of the temperature going up.
    I go wth the data.
    Speaking of temperature:

    image.jpg

    image.jpg

    https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/ho...last-100-years

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    That's a mistake. Numbers always need interpretation, they don't speak for themselves. Any good statistician, any good researcher knows this.
    Well first where is my data incorrect?
    Secondly there seems to be a misconception, that the Science of AGW is insanely complicated, and down in the fine points it is,
    But at a higher level of abstraction, they are making very straight forward predictions.
    The IPCC has predicted that when CO2 levels reach 560 ppm, global average temperatures will be between 1.5 and 4.5 C higher.
    These numbers are inclusive of all possible variables known and unknown.
    One of the known variables, is the accepted direct response of CO2, and accounts for about .6 C of the observed .8 C.
    This leaves only .2 C for all other variables, including natural warming.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Well first where is my data incorrect?
    Secondly there seems to be a misconception, that the Science of AGW is insanely complicated, and down in the fine points it is,
    But at a higher level of abstraction, they are making very straight forward predictions.
    The IPCC has predicted that when CO2 levels reach 560 ppm, global average temperatures will be between 1.5 and 4.5 C higher.
    These numbers are inclusive of all possible variables known and unknown.
    One of the known variables, is the accepted direct response of CO2, and accounts for about .6 C of the observed .8 C.
    This leaves only .2 C for all other variables, including natural warming.
    I'm not sure it's correct. You didn't link any thing for me to examine. And I have no reason to accept random numbers.

    And predictions being off a little don't prove much. Again, they don't speak for themselves. It is unlikely that you are showing anything scientists haven't seen and, they appear to in no way be moved by it. You should ask why?

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    You do not comprehend well do you? My statement was inclusive of the temperature going up.
    I go wth the data.
    Yeah. And you think if it happens it will overturn physics as we know it (because you can't comprehend that you might be...wrong).

    But maybe I'm not interpreting your comment correctly.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Rate of change. You're gonna love the concept, if you can wrap your head around it.

    Here's a taste:

    I looked at that phony graph and my temperature fell below 98.6°.
    Liberalism—dividing up the EARNED wealth of honest, hard working and ingenious AMERICANS and giving it to the leeches who would rather waste their worthless lives living off the government teat.
    -----HogWash-----

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Yeah. And you think if it happens it will overturn physics as we know it (because you can't comprehend that you might be...wrong).

    But maybe I'm not interpreting your comment correctly.
    No Goofs, I think it would change our understanding of Physics If Science could establish a cause and effect
    relationship between the increase in CO2 and the predicted additional forcing.
    So far that has not happened, and may not because it is difficult to validate if the additional forcing exists.
    I am a skeptic, I could be wrong, no big deal, this is not a religious conviction to me, as it is to you.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    No Goofs, I think it would change our understanding of Physics If Science could establish a cause and effect
    relationship between the increase in CO2 and the predicted additional forcing.
    So far that has not happened, and may not because it is difficult to validate if the additional forcing exists.
    I am a skeptic, I could be wrong, no big deal, this is not a religious conviction to me, as it is to you.
    That sounds solid.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says[W:46]

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Why do you use such short term graphs?

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I'm not sure it's correct. You didn't link any thing for me to examine. And I have no reason to accept random numbers.

    And predictions being off a little don't prove much. Again, they don't speak for themselves. It is unlikely that you are showing anything scientists haven't seen and, they appear to in no way be moved by it. You should ask why?
    1880_3.jpg
    Sorry, I have been arguing this in other threads with links.
    The observed data is from the GISS,
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt
    I use the J-D column, and normalize the zero at 1880, since that is the starting point for the IPCC's predictions.
    The IPCC predictions are from the IPCC,
    http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima..._SPM_FINAL.pdf
    The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi-
    century time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a
    doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is
    likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C
    The time of the doubling is purely guesswork, but is placed between 2050 and 2100,
    Mann's April Scientific American article has the doubling about 2077, His graph look a lot like mine, except
    he shows the predicted limits from current temps, I was attempting to show the error trend over extended time.
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/sc...2036_large.jpg
    Mann appears to be doubling down on his prediction, by saying,
    If the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise 2 degrees Celsius by 2036
    Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036 - Scientific American
    Think about that for a second, we have warmed .8 C in 133 years, but Dr Mann is saying 22 years from now we will raise an additional 1.2 C.

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    Re: Climate change is here and action needed now, new White House report says

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    1880_3.jpg
    Sorry, I have been arguing this in other threads with links.
    The observed data is from the GISS,
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt
    I use the J-D column, and normalize the zero at 1880, since that is the starting point for the IPCC's predictions.
    The IPCC predictions are from the IPCC,
    http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima..._SPM_FINAL.pdf

    The time of the doubling is purely guesswork, but is placed between 2050 and 2100,
    Mann's April Scientific American article has the doubling about 2077, His graph look a lot like mine, except
    he shows the predicted limits from current temps, I was attempting to show the error trend over extended time.
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/sc...2036_large.jpg
    Mann appears to be doubling down on his prediction, by saying,

    Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036 - Scientific American
    Think about that for a second, we have warmed .8 C in 133 years, but Dr Mann is saying 22 years from now we will raise an additional 1.2 C.
    So, those who gave these numbers interpret them as meaning global warming is real and that man plays a role. Why should I doubt them and not you?

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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