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Thread: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    I read this as China showing some support for Russia, relating to the circumstances in Ukraine. Now the USA Cold War hawks can start demanding increased funding for the parasitic arms manufacturing industry in the USA. The Military Industrial Complex will get more money to drag the Nation further down and create more instability. It's all OK, the taxpayers don't know wthat's going on.

    Yes of course. Everything every country does is completely centered around the United States.

    The fact that the word "again" in the first sentence tells me that this was planned well in advance, likely before Mr. Putin educated Barry on Eastern European affairs
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    I don't think you should put much stock in these things. China regularly conducts military exercises with Russia and have been doing so for a while. They have had similar naval drills in 2013 and 2012. A number of previous exercises have occurred since 2003, sometimes as part of Shanghai Cooperation Organization exercises. For the most part, Russia's incorporation into the SCO was more about assuaging Russian fears of China encroaching on Central Asia. As is their wont with Beijing, the Russians have repeatedly attempted to assume a leadership role in the organization and swing it further into their orbit by bringing its traditional ally India, much to China's chagrin.

    As it stands, China has no interests warranting intervention on the side of Russia and they are not going to intervene just because Russia wants them to help. I personally imagine that the Chinese would face minimal opposition from the United States were it to seize the South China Sea, East China Sea, or Taiwan. For one, in all but the East China Sea case, Beijing has incredibly strong territorial claims. With the South China Sea the only party with a fairly legitimate contesting claim is Vietnam and, while the U.S. may well favor Vietnam over China, they are unlikely to do much to help the Vietnamese in their dispute. The Philippines is part of the dispute and a long-standing U.S. client state, but their claim is more limited and far less legitimate. Additionally, only in Taiwan would any conflict be likely to see significant military activity as the South China Sea and East China Sea islands are all rather small and mostly unoccupied. Yet, even there it is likely China already has the capacity to completely obliterate Taiwan's military capabilities and cordon off the island, blocking any potential American intervention.

    By contrast, China and the U.S. have many core aligning interests such as in Pakistan and Korea. Although China has some ties with Iran, they are actually much closer with the Arab nations in the region to say nothing of their very close relationship with Israel. There are also much broader economic ties between China and the U.S. than either country has with Russia. I remember when Erin Burnett said several years back how China was probably America's greatest friend to some confused looks, but I would say she nailed it. Most other countries are basically just client states or protectorates of the American Empire, while with China there is some equal footing at present. It is not without rivalry or hostility, but the environment is much more conducive to continued cooperation than renewed opposition. To some extent it was inevitable, though it is as much credit to George W. Bush's handling of diplomacy. Obama has probably done more to worsen ties, though not enough to imperil the relationship.

    Russia should be doing more to make China happy as continuing along their current path is more likely to cause a break than a partnership and Russia cannot risk China siding with the U.S. and EU. Doing so would require a change in Russia's traditional attitude towards China, though, and I am not sure they can manage it.
    I hear you, but do you trust the Chinese in terms of holding any permanent alliances? I think they'll do what suits their interest at all times, and can easily swing to different sides. So, currently China has lots of trading partnerships with the United States, and since they own so much of our debt (about one fifth of it by some accounts) and export so much to us, they are not interested in seeing us go down.

    However, if we get in their way in terms of access to resources (e.g., energy) they won't hesitate in tossing us under the wheels.

    I think it is very hard to predict China's moves.

    First of all, it remains to be seen how well they will be doing in the future - they may very well crumble under their own weight with problems like soil contamination impacting on crops, and air pollution impacting on the viability of their mega-cities.

    I actually worry about the above, because if they become desperate, with their sheer size, the size of their population, the size of their economy, and the growing power of their military, China might become a rather intrusive and obnoxious power.

    This is one of the reasons why I firmly believe that the US should get closer and closer with the EU, and NATO should be dramatically upgraded, unified, organized, and turned into a rapid response military force.

    One never knows. The world is becoming a very upsetting place.

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    I hear you, but do you trust the Chinese in terms of holding any permanent alliances? I think they'll do what suits their interest at all times, and can easily swing to different sides. So, currently China has lots of trading partnerships with the United States, and since they own so much of our debt (about one fifth of it by some accounts) and export so much to us, they are not interested in seeing us go down.

    However, if we get in their way in terms of access to resources (e.g., energy) they won't hesitate in tossing us under the wheels.

    I think it is very hard to predict China's moves.

    First of all, it remains to be seen how well they will be doing in the future - they may very well crumble under their own weight with problems like soil contamination impacting on crops, and air pollution impacting on the viability of their mega-cities.

    I actually worry about the above, because if they become desperate, with their sheer size, the size of their population, the size of their economy, and the growing power of their military, China might become a rather intrusive and obnoxious power.

    This is one of the reasons why I firmly believe that the US should get closer and closer with the EU, and NATO should be dramatically upgraded, unified, organized, and turned into a rapid response military force.

    One never knows. The world is becoming a very upsetting place.
    China's moves are not really all that hard to predict if you have an objective understanding of the country. Unfortunately, one of those effects of Western, especially American, propaganda regarding China is that it gives people the wrong idea about the country. The same sort of issue exists with Russia, though worse given its historical association with the Soviet Union.

    While I believe China's economy is going to hit a significant rough patch soon, I do not think this will be a major problem. They will undergo some necessary reforms, reduce their reliance on dirtier fuels, and generally improve their living standards. A hard landing will likely only accelerate both economic and political reforms in the country.

    None of the interdependence of China and the U.S. is going away any time soon, it will more likely increase, so I see no reason to expect any negative impact on relations. The U.S. has no real hope in the EU. I expect the U.S. and China will find their values and views converging much more in the future while each of them see a divergence with the EU and Russia respectively.
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
    - Khalil Gibran

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    China's moves are not really all that hard to predict if you have an objective understanding of the country. Unfortunately, one of those effects of Western, especially American, propaganda regarding China is that it gives people the wrong idea about the country. The same sort of issue exists with Russia, though worse given its historical association with the Soviet Union.

    While I believe China's economy is going to hit a significant rough patch soon, I do not think this will be a major problem. They will undergo some necessary reforms, reduce their reliance on dirtier fuels, and generally improve their living standards. A hard landing will likely only accelerate both economic and political reforms in the country.

    None of the interdependence of China and the U.S. is going away any time soon, it will more likely increase, so I see no reason to expect any negative impact on relations. The U.S. has no real hope in the EU. I expect the U.S. and China will find their values and views converging much more in the future while each of them see a divergence with the EU and Russia respectively.
    Explain, please. Why do you see no real hope for the US in the EU? Actually I see the crisis in Ukraine is likely to make this relationship closer, and there's been movement in terms of free trade agreements.

    Also, please explain what you mean about Americans getting the wrong idea about China. I don't doubt it, but I'd like you to clarify what you believe Americans think of China, and in what ways it is inaccurate.

    Another point: reform in China might become explosive. It's always interesting to see how when you increase the standards of living for people who were in dire poverty before, just worried about getting something to eat, you actually also increase their demands. They get a taste of a better life, then want more. Hungry people worry about food. Well fed people might start worrying about freedom. The totalitarian Chinese government may start to run into real trouble in terms of controlling their population.

    The Confederations Cup riots in Brazil were an example of the same phenomenon. Brazil used to have a middle class that was a little more than 10% of the population, plus a small and extremely dominant elite. More than 85% of the population were in dire poverty. Now the Brazilian middle class is 52% of the population. While the poor wanted to eat and watch soccer games for distraction (panis et circensis), now the new middle class wants more, and is dismayed at seeing First World-grade soccer stadiums being built at enormous costs, while they have to endure Third World-grade hospitals and schools. They went to the streets to voice their anger. I think sooner or later a similar phenomenon will happen in China.

    And then, we may also start to see China breaking down into smaller pieces. Places like Tibet and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region are not exactly happy with Beijing. Cities like Hong Kong and Macao likely have never entirely relinquished their Western identity. I'm no expert in Chinese politics but I wonder what other tensions exist.

    So, that place may as well become a huge mess in a couple of decades. You say they will adapt... but will they? Maybe change will be to fast to allow for efficient adaptation.
    Last edited by GreatNews2night; 05-02-14 at 12:34 AM.

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    Explain, please. Why do you see no real hope for the US in the EU? Actually I see the crisis in Ukraine is likely to make this relationship closer, and there's been movement in terms of free trade agreements. Also, please explain what you mean about Americans getting the wrong idea about China. I don't doubt it, but I'd like you to clarify what you believe Americans think of China, and in what ways it is inaccurate. Another point: reform in China might become explosive. It's always interesting to see how when you increase the standards of living for people who were in dire poverty before, just worried about getting something to eat, you actually also increase their demands. They get a taste of a better life, then want more. Hungry people worry about food. Well fed people might start worrying about freedom. The totalitarian Chinese government may start to run into real trouble in terms of controlling their population. The Confederations Cup riots in Brazil were an example of the same phenomenon. Brazil used to have a middle class that was a little more than 10% of the population, plus a small and extremely dominant elite. More than 85% of the population were in dire poverty. Now the Brazilian middle class is 52% of the population. While the poor wanted to eat and watch soccer games for distraction (panis et circensis), now the new middle class wants more, and is dismayed at seeing First World-grade soccer stadiums being built at enormous costs, while they have to endure Third World-grade hospitals and schools. They went to the streets to voice their anger. I think sooner or later a similar phenomenon will happen in China. And then, we may also start to see China breaking down into smaller pieces. Places like Tibet and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region are not exactly happy with Beijing. Cities like Hong Kong and Macao likely have never entirely relinquished their Western identity. I'm no expert in Chinese politics but I wonder what other tensions exist. So, that place may as well become a huge mess in a couple of decades. You say they will adapt... but will they? Maybe change will be to fast to allow for efficient adaptation.
    This is more or less just some fantasy ignorant diehard American imperialists have promoted since it means China goes from a surging rival to a pliable servant and the U.S. loses its only serious competition for global dominance. Despite all efforts to characterize China as being ruled by some totalitarian elitist dictatorship beyond public accountability, Beijing is actually quite responsive to the people's concerns and decisions are not simply top-down commands from on high everyone is forced to obey. It acts as though somehow the power all resides with the central government without paying much mind to how things actually work. China was never like the Soviet Union or Cuba or Vietnam. They have always operated under the principle of a collective leadership where no one person holds significantly more power than another and have often included people of varying ideologies. Power has never really been centralized at the top either, but instead guided from the top with lower levels of government having significant discretion over their affairs. While they lack the multi-party direct electoral representative system we commonly associate with the term, they have their own sort of democratic system that is more dependent on the direct involvement of the public. All of that translates to there being little danger of some widespread organized revolution and even less danger of it tearing the country apart. My main reason for seeing little hope for the U.S. and EU is that they are unlikely to remain stable as they lack a cohesive central authority with a host of more serious economic problems, are generally going the opposite direction politically compared to China, and there seems to be a stronger oppositional relationship between the two. In addition, they are far too dependent on Russia to be considered a viable superpower even without all those other issues that would keep them from being tightly bound to the U.S.
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
    - Khalil Gibran

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    This is more or less just some fantasy ignorant diehard American imperialists have promoted since it means China goes from a surging rival to a pliable servant and the U.S. loses its only serious competition for global dominance. Despite all efforts to characterize China as being ruled by some totalitarian elitist dictatorship beyond public accountability, Beijing is actually quite responsive to the people's concerns and decisions are not simply top-down commands from on high everyone is forced to obey. It acts as though somehow the power all resides with the central government without paying much mind to how things actually work. China was never like the Soviet Union or Cuba or Vietnam. They have always operated under the principle of a collective leadership where no one person holds significantly more power than another and have often included people of varying ideologies. Power has never really been centralized at the top either, but instead guided from the top with lower levels of government having significant discretion over their affairs. While they lack the multi-party direct electoral representative system we commonly associate with the term, they have their own sort of democratic system that is more dependent on the direct involvement of the public. All of that translates to there being little danger of some widespread organized revolution and even less danger of it tearing the country apart. My main reason for seeing little hope for the U.S. and EU is that they are unlikely to remain stable as they lack a cohesive central authority with a host of more serious economic problems, are generally going the opposite direction politically compared to China, and there seems to be a stronger oppositional relationship between the two. In addition, they are far too dependent on Russia to be considered a viable superpower even without all those other issues that would keep them from being tightly bound to the U.S.
    Admittedly I may have been fed the wrong information by the media in my country - again, I've never visited China myself - but yes, I am under the impression that the Chinese government is quite totalitarian. I know it's been a long time, but the Tiananmen Square episode shows what happens to people who dissent from the central government. I recently read a piece about how the government will allow focused protests when a group is clearly wronged - e.g., parents of the kids who got crushed when the school collapsed, or family members of the M370 passengers - but won't tolerate any larger movement. I also read about how pollution is taking a big toll and how some segments of the population are getting fed up, but the central government reacts with slogans as ridiculous as implying that it is a good thing because it draws people closer together with a common task to combat. Now, just a couple of days ago there was another bomb/knife attack in Xinjiang. This doesn't hint at the sort of paradise you are describing with a lot of accountability and interaction between the top and the bottom of the Chinese society. Sure, I'd expect that the party members participate in local administration, but I'd doubt that there is any real freedom in Chinese society. Not that I think there is much freedom in American society either - a recent study by Stanford University showed how little influence the American people have over public policy here - most bills that become law are much more heavily influenced by oligarchs than by popular concern. But from this, to think of China as any sort of government that is responsive to people's needs and wishes, may be a stretch. Again, I'm here to learn and I respect your opinion since you seem to be very well informed, and maybe I've been fed the opposing view for so long that I have trouble relinquishing it, but as of now I remain unconvinced regarding China's responsiveness to its own people.

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    Admittedly I may have been fed the wrong information by the media in my country - again, I've never visited China myself - but yes, I am under the impression that the Chinese government is quite totalitarian. I know it's been a long time, but the Tiananmen Square episode shows what happens to people who dissent from the central government. I recently read a piece about how the government will allow focused protests when a group is clearly wronged - e.g., parents of the kids who got crushed when the school collapsed, or family members of the M370 passengers - but won't tolerate any larger movement. I also read about how pollution is taking a big toll and how some segments of the population are getting fed up, but the central government reacts with slogans as ridiculous as implying that it is a good thing because it draws people closer together with a common task to combat. Now, just a couple of days ago there was another bomb/knife attack in Xinjiang. This doesn't hint at the sort of paradise you are describing with a lot of accountability and interaction between the top and the bottom of the Chinese society. Sure, I'd expect that the party members participate in local administration, but I'd doubt that there is any real freedom in Chinese society. Not that I think there is much freedom in American society either - a recent study by Stanford University showed how little influence the American people have over public policy here - most bills that become law are much more heavily influenced by oligarchs than by popular concern. But from this, to think of China as any sort of government that is responsive to people's needs and wishes, may be a stretch. Again, I'm here to learn and I respect your opinion since you seem to be very well informed, and maybe I've been fed the opposing view for so long that I have trouble relinquishing it, but as of now I remain unconvinced regarding China's responsiveness to its own people.
    Unfortunately when you read these things, I presume you are reading the major Western news outlets who I have found frequently provided reports lacking in sufficient context and I have no doubt it is intentional. For instance, last year a Uyghhur professor was arrested and Western media widely reported that he was arrested for supporting autonomy and democracy. The details of the charges, which were not explicitly cited in every Western media report I read, were far from the kind of soft-spoken advocacy Western media implied. Several students said he was recruiting people to send to Xinjiang, declaring Uyghurs were fighting a battle akin to the one the Chinese fought against the Japanese, and allegedly praised various violent actions including terrorist attacks. Now, some might insist the allegations are fabricated (personally, I can totally see a college prof speaking in such radical terms), but the fact is that Western media reported that he was arrested for advocating autonomy when the allegation is that he was recruiting young minds to resist the Chinese government in Xinjiang while praising terrorist activities and likening Beijing's rule to the Japanese occupation.

    In any society there is conflict and abuse of power and I am not in any way suggesting China is above all that or that its problems are less than those of developed democracies. However, too often the criticism is just clearly not about presenting an objective take and more about maintaining the image of China as some brutal dictatorship when that has never actually been the case since the establishment of the PRC. Many people just do not understand Chinese political philosophy or Chinese political organization and so they think of China in the same terms as other self-proclaimed communist states. In fact, central leadership have actually pushed reconciliation of citizen demands as a way of stifling local unrest. That is, responding to the will of the public. You also have the long-standing petitioning system where, if a certain number of people petition the government on an issue, it leads to action by the government. Many other approaches are pursued to gauge the public will and respond accordingly. It sort of goes back to Mao and the concept of the mass line, though arguably it also has deep roots in Chinese culture and earlier communist theory.

    Hopefully, most Americans will be disabused of their more simplistic notions about Chinese governance in time. Understanding the difference between the governing styles of China and Russia is actually more important to understanding why China is more likely to side with the U.S. than Russia. In Russia they essentially lead from the top as the Russian public has elections and other freedoms, but free choice is effectively denied by the overbearing presence of state media and various other state levers. Centralized state control effectively decides the people's will and then acts on it. For China the idea is to lead from the bottom where the concerns of the public are used to inform and guide the state directly on policy matters and its propaganda activities. The U.S. is effectively between the two in its model, but the American model is currently much more fine-tuned so it is more democratic in practice than China's model.
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    This is an older article but I think it is still relevant to the topic.
    A Russia-China Alliance Brewing? | The Diplomat

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    And when the US Navy, the Japanese Navy, the South Korean coastal defense forces and the Australian Navy have joint naval exercises in response. It will make the Chinese and the Russian navy look like the Ronald McDonald happy meal navy.

    Bring it!

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    Re: China to conduct naval drills with Russia in East China Sea

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    It means that we, the USA, have made them feel threatened and so they project a tentative alliance like a chess move to counter USA antagonism.
    Barrack Obama has made the Chinese feel threatened?

    The only people Obama has turned on is a video maker in California, a preacher in Florida and a rancher in Nevada. He fainted when Benghazi was attacked.

    I doubt that the Chinese are much concerned about a punk like Barry Obama.

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