PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating fall

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

tres borrachos said:

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

More here:

Post-ABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating falls - The Washington Post

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here is what the pros think as of today as to what will happen in the Senate come November. Do with this info what you will. But the Republicans taking control of the senate is far from being a sure thing. There is no 2010 in the offering, no indication as of yet anyway.

1 Professional Prognosticators Senate predictions as of 29 April 2014. Current senate consists of 55 Democratic held seats 45 Republican held seats.
Charlie Cook 47 Democratic 46 Republican: Tossups (6 Democratic held seats) Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina. (2 Republican held seats) Georgia and Kentucky (Democrat to Republican West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota) (No Republican to Democratic seats)

For the Republicans to take control of the senate according to Cook, they must retain Georgia and Kentucky and win 3 of the 6 Democratic held seats he lists as tossups.


EP 51 Democratic 49 Republican: No toss ups (Democrat to Republican West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, North Carolina) (No Republican to Democratic seats)

EP states the Democrats retain control of the senate.


Nate Silver 538, 49 Republican 48 Democratic: Tossups (3 Democratic held seats Alaska, Louisiana, and North Carolina. (Democrat to Republican Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia). (No Republican to Democratic seats.)

Nate says the Republican’s must win 2 of the three seats he lists as tossups. Nate and Cook are basically saying the same thing.

RCP 51 Democrat 49 Republican (Democrat to Republican, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia) (Republican to Democrat, Kentucky)

RCP no toss up predicts the Democrats remain in control of the senate.

Rothenberg 50 Democrat 49 Republican: Tossup (1 Democratic held seat) Louisiana (Democrat to Republican, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas) (No Republican to Democrat seats)

For Stuart Rothenberg the Democrats are a lock to retain control of the senate. Even if Louisiana goes Republican, it would result in a 50-50 tie with Vice President Biden casting the deciding votes thus enabling the Democrats to retain their control.

Sabato 48 Democrat 49 Republican: 3 Tossups (3 Democratic Held seats) Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana (Democratic to Republican, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas) (No Republican to Democratic seats)

It comes down for the Republicans to win 2 of the 3 tossup seats if they are to gain control of the senate per Larry Sabato.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

To me, it'll always be a civil union. "Marriage" is a word the gay agenda isn't going to highjack from me.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

pogomutt said:

To me, it'll always be a civil union. "Marriage" is a word the gay agenda isn't going to highjack from me.

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:roll:

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

pogomutt said:

To me, it'll always be a civil union. "Marriage" is a word the gay agenda isn't going to highjack from me.

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Doesn't matter. Their certificate of marriage will be exactly that, a certificate of marriage.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

tres borrachos said:

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

More here:

Post-ABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating falls - The Washington Post

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Barack Obama is not running for re-election...He already did that and won...
Before you start counting your senate majority maybe you should look to see how the republicon party is polling

National Public Radio/Democracy Corps (D)/Resurgent Republic (R). March 19-23, 2014. N=420 likely voters nationwide.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives?"

.

Approve Disapprove Unsure/Refused

23% 72 % 5%

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Fox News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). Dec. 14-16, 2013. N=1,027 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
2010 & earlier: Conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. LV = likely voters. Except where noted, results below are among registered voters.

.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the job Republicans in Congress are doing?"

.

Approve Disapprove Unsure


22 % 73% 5%

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Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

TheNextEra said:

Stop fighting the legalization of SSM so we can get to the economy, problem solved. But Cons like you don't want that or care about the economy. You care more about fighting against the legalization of SSM more. So sleep in the bed you made Con. YOU and other Cons care MORE about fighting against the inevitable than the economy.

When you wonder why people don't focus on the economy look at yourself in the mirror and there's one of the people to blame.

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It really is hard dealing with zealots like you who are basically single issue voters. I am not stopping you from fighting for same sex marriage in your state. It is a state issue and will always be a state issue. Why do you care if the people of TX refuse to accept SSM? how does that affect you?

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Buck Ewer said:

Barack Obama is not running for re-election...He already did that and won...
Before you start counting your senate majority maybe you look to see how the republicon party is polling

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You don't seem to get it, national polls don't elect Senators or House Members. one of these days you may just take a civics class. Then you will have some credibility.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

TheNextEra said:

Seems you are the one testy because the Dems still lead in major issues.

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Yes, the Dems lead in major issues, but that's generic. It is a massive amount of Democratic Senatorial seats that are up for grabs, many of them in red states, which is making this election interesting. At this time, the Dems have a 52% chance of keeping the Senate. That is not a good number for them. I predict that the Republicans will gain a tie, and Angus King will switch parties he caucuses with, giving the GOP 51 seats. With Obama still in the White House, get ready for 2 years of total gridlock.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

And this is NPR polling? I'm sitting here laughing. I'm honestly laughing.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Conservative said:

It really is hard dealing with zealots like you who are basically single issue voters. I am not stopping you from fighting for same sex marriage in your state. It is a state issue and will always be a state issue. Why do you care if the people of TX refuse to accept SSM? how does that affect you?

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What does it matter to you that two gays can marry? Well sorry to show you were wrong again, Cons such as yourself don't care about the economy obviously and care more about SSM. Seems you have only yourselves to blame. So when you whine and cry about why people aren't paying attention to the economy you have only yourselves to blame because YOU care more about fighting SSM than the economy.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

danarhea said:

Yes, the Dems lead in major issues, but that's generic. It is a massive amount of Democratic Senatorial seats that are up for grabs, many of them in red states, which is making this election interesting. At this time, the Dems have a 52% chance of keeping the Senate. That is not a good number for them. I predict that the Republicans will gain a tie, and Angus King will switch parties he caucuses with, giving the GOP 51 seats. With Obama still in the White House, get ready for 2 years of total gridlock.

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If the GOP puts the focus on social conservatism you can kiss that advantage goodbye for the GOP. Nevada's election with Reid was the perfect example. It was the GOPs election to lose and lose they did by nominating Angle.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

TheNextEra said:

If the GOP puts the focus on social conservatism you can kiss that advantage goodbye for the GOP. Nevada's election with Reid was the perfect example. It was the GOPs election to lose and lose they did by nominating Angle.

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I have to agree that the GOP is shooting themselves in the foot. They may have thrown Alaska away, by missing an important deadline, and thus not getting several issues important to Democrats on the primary ballot. Now those votes will be held in November, which is good for Democrats, and bad for Republicans. Only idiots can do what the GOP in Alaska did. They ensured that Democrats, which never turn out in mid terms, will turn out in huge numbers there.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

danarhea said:

Yes, the Dems lead in major issues, but that's generic. It is a massive amount of Democratic Senatorial seats that are up for grabs, many of them in red states, which is making this election interesting. At this time, the Dems have a 52% chance of keeping the Senate. That is not a good number for them. I predict that the Republicans will gain a tie, and Angus King will switch parties he caucuses with, giving the GOP 51 seats. With Obama still in the White House, get ready for 2 years of total gridlock.

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I think king has made his bed, he won't switch even if the senate ends up in a 50-50 split. Then the VP Biden will be able to cast all tie breaking votes, even with a 50-50 tie, the senate remains democratic. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats, most professional prognosticators are giving the Republicans Montana, Daines the Republican is up by 14 points, South Dakota, Round the Republican is up by 20 points and West Virginia, Republican Capito has taken a 14 point lead. Then there are the Democratic held states most prognosticators list as tossups, Louisiana, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, Democratic incumbents in red states that have a 50-50 shot of going either way. Then there are two blue states with Democratic incumbents that is also rated toss up, Colorado and Michigan.

But what is left unsaid is the republicans have two tossup states that are rarely mentioned, Kentucky and Georgia.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Perotista said:

I think king has made his bed, he won't switch even if the senate ends up in a 50-50 split. Then the VP Biden will be able to cast all tie breaking votes, even with a 50-50 tie, the senate remains democratic. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats, most professional prognosticators are giving the Republicans Montana, Daines the Republican is up by 14 points, South Dakota, Round the Republican is up by 20 points and West Virginia, Republican Capito has taken a 14 point lead. Then there are the Democratic held states most prognosticators list as tossups, Louisiana, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, Democratic incumbents in red states that have a 50-50 shot of going either way. Then there are two blue states with Democratic incumbents that is also rated toss up, Colorado and Michigan.

But what is left unsaid is the republicans have two tossup states that are rarely mentioned, Kentucky and Georgia.

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King has already come out and said he might caucus with Republicans. He is an opportunist. If Republicans offer him a good deal to switch sides, he will do it. And the GOP will make that offer. I stand by my prediction here.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

What does it matter to you that two gays can marry? Well sorry to show you were wrong again, Cons such as yourself don't care about the economy obviously and care more about SSM. Seems you have only yourselves to blame. So when you whine and cry about why people aren't paying attention to the economy you have only yourselves to blame because YOU care more about fighting SSM than the economy.

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If your state approves it, I couldn't care less. The only ones not paying attention to the economy are those dependent on the govt. for their own existence. Most can walk and chew gum at the same time, although I am beginning to doubt liberals can do both at the same time.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Perotista said:

I think king has made his bed, he won't switch even if the senate ends up in a 50-50 split. Then the VP Biden will be able to cast all tie breaking votes, even with a 50-50 tie, the senate remains democratic. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats, most professional prognosticators are giving the Republicans Montana, Daines the Republican is up by 14 points, South Dakota, Round the Republican is up by 20 points and West Virginia, Republican Capito has taken a 14 point lead. Then there are the Democratic held states most prognosticators list as tossups, Louisiana, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, Democratic incumbents in red states that have a 50-50 shot of going either way. Then there are two blue states with Democratic incumbents that is also rated toss up, Colorado and Michigan.

But what is left unsaid is the republicans have two tossup states that are rarely mentioned, Kentucky and Georgia.

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Since it takes 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate Control takes on less of a meaning however it would be great if Harry Reid at least allowed debate and votes on House bills.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

danarhea said:

King has already come out and said he might caucus with Republicans. He is an opportunist. If Republicans offer him a good deal to switch sides, he will do it. And the GOP will make that offer. I stand by my prediction here.

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We'll see.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Conservative said:

Since it takes 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate Control takes on less of a meaning however it would be great if Harry Reid at least allowed debate and votes on House bills.

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I agree with you there. Reid has tabled some 200 house bills, that is not how politics are suppose to be. Reid and the senate has the power to add, delete, change, amend any and all of those house bills. If there is something in them he and his fellow Dems do not like, delete it, he has the majority.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

I'd like to see how many of those 200 House bills have legislative riders and poison pills.
Even better is when McConnell filibusters his own GOP House's bills as they play ping-pong with difficult votes. :lamo
Ultimately, the Greedy Obstructionist Pout is their filibuster on Legislation.
Sen. Reid needs to NUKE that option also .

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Conservative said:

Since it takes 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate Control takes on
less of a meaning however it would be great if Harry Reid at least allowed debate and votes on House bills.

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As Sen. Frist DID NOT do last decade.
But, he and Sen. McConnell whined about "give the American people a straight-up-and-down-vote", didn't they?
And they got one AFTER threatening the NUCLEAR option, so we the genesis of that.

As for now, McConnell won't even allow his members to debate, invoking the filibuster, knowing his members will vote yes on the merits of a bill.
Same with the House, hence the drive for discharge petitions by the DEMs.
What do you call GOP Leadership that won't allow a vote on GOP, DEM, and GOP/DEM legislation ?

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Perotista said:

We'll see.

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I don't know whether I would like an "opportunist," if I am gauging the word correctly. I could not whole-heartedly trust someone who spent his life being a member of one party, usually because of ideology, to have them change because that party has fallen out of favor. I certainly would not have them privy to any strategies the "welcoming" party might have, if it could be used against them to defeat them. The same could be said about what the "goodbye" party might be planning, strategy-wise, but how could you know if anything said about their plans is the truth or not?

I don't know if what I have posted even makes sense to me, but I hope what I am trying to say is clear. Maybe "trust, but verify" fits here?

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

polgara said:

I don't know whether I would like an "opportunist," if I am gauging the word correctly. I could not whole-heartedly trust someone who spent his life being a member of one party, usually because of ideology, to have them change because that party has fallen out of favor. I certainly would not have them privy to any strategies the "welcoming" party might have, if it could be used against them to defeat them. The same could be said about what the "goodbye" party might be planning, strategy-wise, but how could you know if anything said about their plans is the truth or not?

I don't know if what I have posted even makes sense to me, but I hope what I am trying to say is clear. Maybe "trust, but verify" fits here?

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King ran as an independent and won the governorship of Maine, then ran again as an independent winning his senate seat in 2012, so he really hasn't affiliated himself with either until he won the senate seat and announced he would caucus with the Democrats. Although he has basically been an independent he did decide to join the Democrats in the senate if only to caucus with him, but by doing so he is an independent in name only, not a true independent. Sanders from Vermont is the other so called independent. Both as voted the party line, so as far as I am concerned he is a Democrat.

Yes what you said made sense to me and I feel the same way. If King was a true independent, he would not have caucus with either party and would have voted his conscious and the way the people of Maine wanted him to. I am sure even if he changed his stripes and now loyalty after the 2014 elections, the republicans would welcome him with open arms. Especially if the senate is tied 50-50 or the GOP won only 5 seats and needed that sixth one to take control. But I doubt if King would switch then, if he does the GOP would have to pick up their six seats to take a 51-49 lead, then King might switch to make it 52-48.

But what to do with him in 2016? The Republicans have 24 seats up for re-election that year vs. only 10 for the Democrats. Chances are even if the GOP wins the senate this year, they will lose it in 2016, does King do another switcheroo going back to caucus with the Democrats?

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

NIMBY said:

I'd like to see how many of those 200 House bills have legislative riders and poison pills.
Even better is when McConnell filibusters his own GOP House's bills as they play ping-pong with difficult votes. :lamo
Ultimately, the Greedy Obstructionist Pout is their filibuster on Legislation.
Sen. Reid needs to NUKE that option also .

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How do you know what was in the House Bills? As for filibustering a bill they have to be presented before being filibustered

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

NIMBY said:

I'd like to see how many of those 200 House bills have legislative riders and poison pills.
Even better is when McConnell filibusters his own GOP House's bills as they play ping-pong with difficult votes. :lamo
Ultimately, the Greedy Obstructionist Pout is their filibuster on Legislation.
Sen. Reid needs to NUKE that option also .

Click to expand...

Yeah, that was priceless.

Re: PostABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating

Conservative said:

You don't seem to get it, national polls don't elect Senators or House Members. one of these days you may just take a civics class. Then you will have some credibility.

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...and there is no gerrymandering to get senators elected.
One day YOU might get that.