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US delays Review of Keystone XL Pipeline.....

polgara said:
It sure seems from the howling we're hearing from the environmentalists that they are against any more greenhouse gases be emitted, or we're doomed! They appear to prefer we all have windmills on top of our vehicles or something, but that doesn't wash. Since the States involved are all on board with the safety part of it, and since the pipeline will provide new jobs for their areas, I see no reason why to delay, except for the fact that unions have been very vocal in support of the pipeline! It will be very interesting to see who wins this fight, since the Dems don't want to lose either voting block. Poor BHO - which way to go on this political hot potato? :argue:

Greetings, Pero. :2wave:
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There are a few one issue voters, but only a few. How many of the rank and file of the union will switch their loyalties in November from Democratic to Republican over the pipeline remains to be seen, but I do not think there will be a mass switch because of it. The union hollering is a minor thorn in the Democrat's side. The Democrats want to keep the energy most environmentalist bring to the election, their money etc. There is a lot more involved here and the delay gets the Democrats 100 million from that California guy plus maintains the energy and work the environmentalist do. Sure it may lose a few votes in Sullivan's union, but in the grand scheme of things, those few votes do not mean much.

But they just might provide the difference in a very close election in two states. Arkansas and Louisiana. But both Democratic incumbents were no better than 50-50 prior to the decision to delay Keystone, the delay may make those odds 49-51 for their re-election but that decision probably helps in several other states in keeping what the Democrats hopes their base fired up enough to get them to the polls. Apparently the Democrats think they can afford to lose Arkansas and Louisiana. But the decision may help them in Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps Alaska.
 
Perotista said:
There are a few one issue voters, but only a few. How many of the rank and file of the union will switch their loyalties in November from Democratic to Republican over the pipeline remains to be seen, but I do not think there will be a mass switch because of it. The union hollering is a minor thorn in the Democrat's side. The Democrats want to keep the energy most environmentalist bring to the election, their money etc. There is a lot more involved here and the delay gets the Democrats 100 million from that California guy plus maintains the energy and work the environmentalist do. Sure it may lose a few votes in Sullivan's union, but in the grand scheme of things, those few votes do not mean much.

But they just might provide the difference in a very close election in two states. Arkansas and Louisiana. But both Democratic incumbents were no better than 50-50 prior to the decision to delay Keystone, the delay may make those odds 49-51 for their re-election but that decision probably helps in several other states in keeping what the Democrats hopes their base fired up enough to get them to the polls. Apparently the Democrats think they can afford to lose Arkansas and Louisiana. But the decision may help them in Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps Alaska.
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Great post, Pero! :thumbs: It gives me a new slant in the way I look at things, and that's good. The events leading up to the 2014 election will be most interesting to watch, and will doubtless show us how the voters feel about the way things are trending, and whether or not they are satisfied with same. If it turns out to be like the 2010 election, that's one thing, and a message will be delivered by the voters. If not...? Time will tell.
 
polgara said:
Great post, Pero! :thumbs: It gives me a new slant in the way I look at things, and that's good. The events leading up to the 2014 election will be most interesting to watch, and will doubtless show us how the voters feel about the way things are trending, and whether or not they are satisfied with same. If it turns out to be like the 2010 election, that's one thing, and a message will be delivered by the voters. If not...? Time will tell.
Click to expand...

I doubt if another 2010 is in the works. Nationally the indicators just aren't there as they were in 2010 at this point in time. The five major indicators point more towards a status quo election with perhaps the Republicans gaining a few seats in each chamber. Now having said that, nation indicators are just that national indicators. It doesn't break them down into states and districts. Yet they are a good rule of thumb. As of yesterday, there is how they looked.

What are the chances of another 2010 election happening in November? Here are the five criteria that must be in place. Also you compare today with 2012 and 2010.

President Obama’s approval rating of below 45%: Todays rating: 44.7% and rising. Whether the president’s approval rating continues to rise or falls back once again will be a telltale sign whether the Republicans will have a banner year or not.
2012 approval rating 51%
2010 approval rating 44%

ACA gap of 15 points in the against/oppose side over the favor/pro ACA side: Today the gap is 11.6. About half way between a banner year for either party. It is more in line for a status quo election than a huge Republican gain.
2012 gap 5 points
2010 gap 15 points

Generic congressional poll, the Republicans must have a lead over the Democrats of 5 points or better: Today the Democrats lead by 1.6 points 41.8-40.2%. This indicator pretty much says we will have a status quo election with either party gaining or losing 5 seats.
2012 generic Democrats 50% Republicans 48%
2010 generic Democrats 45% Republicans 52%

Party Favorability/unfavorability, the Democrats must be seen in a worst light than the Republicans. But today with all voters the Republicans have a 33% favorable rating vs a 61% unfavorable. The Democrats have a 42% favorable/53% unfavorable which seems to tilt the November election in the Democrats favor.
2012 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 47/44 Republican 40/47
2010 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 39/47 Republican 44/44

Party affiliation/identification Republicans must have a 5 point lead as they did in 2010 when counting those who identify with each party plus those independents which lean towards each party: Today the Democrats have a 2 point advantage, down three points from last month and down 7 from 2 months ago. It seems party identification is trending Republican, but is nowhere near what is needed for another 2010 to happen.

Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 14% Total 43%
Identify as Republicans 25%
Independents lean Republican 16% Total 41%

2012 party identification
Identify as Democrats 33%
Independents lean Democrat 15% Total 48%
Identify as Republicans 28%
Independents lean Republican 12% Total 40%


2010 party identification
Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 13% Total 42%
Identify as Republicans 29%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 49%


Conclusion: The president’s approval rating is rising and is not a positive sign for the republicans for big gains. The ACA gap has been closing another not so positive sign for Republican hopes to gain control of the senate. The generic congressional poll is good news for Democrats which would indicate they might gain a few seats in the House. The party favorability ratings says this should be a Democratic year. Party affiliation is about even, giving neither side an advantage. The bottom line is as of this date the indicators are mixed or pointing more to a status quo election. So do not expect another 2010 or whole sale changes in the make up or control of either chamber of Congress. Look for the Republicans to gain 3-4 senate seats, but not enough to gain control. While the House stays pretty much with the same numbers it has today, 234 Republican, 201 Democrat.
 
Perotista said:
I doubt if another 2010 is in the works. Nationally the indicators just aren't there as they were in 2010 at this point in time. The five major indicators point more towards a status quo election with perhaps the Republicans gaining a few seats in each chamber. Now having said that, nation indicators are just that national indicators. It doesn't break them down into states and districts. Yet they are a good rule of thumb. As of yesterday, there is how they looked.

What are the chances of another 2010 election happening in November? Here are the five criteria that must be in place. Also you compare today with 2012 and 2010.

President Obama’s approval rating of below 45%: Todays rating: 44.7% and rising. Whether the president’s approval rating continues to rise or falls back once again will be a telltale sign whether the Republicans will have a banner year or not.
2012 approval rating 51%
2010 approval rating 44%

ACA gap of 15 points in the against/oppose side over the favor/pro ACA side: Today the gap is 11.6. About half way between a banner year for either party. It is more in line for a status quo election than a huge Republican gain.
2012 gap 5 points
2010 gap 15 points

Generic congressional poll, the Republicans must have a lead over the Democrats of 5 points or better: Today the Democrats lead by 1.6 points 41.8-40.2%. This indicator pretty much says we will have a status quo election with either party gaining or losing 5 seats.
2012 generic Democrats 50% Republicans 48%
2010 generic Democrats 45% Republicans 52%

Party Favorability/unfavorability, the Democrats must be seen in a worst light than the Republicans. But today with all voters the Republicans have a 33% favorable rating vs a 61% unfavorable. The Democrats have a 42% favorable/53% unfavorable which seems to tilt the November election in the Democrats favor.
2012 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 47/44 Republican 40/47
2010 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 39/47 Republican 44/44

Party affiliation/identification Republicans must have a 5 point lead as they did in 2010 when counting those who identify with each party plus those independents which lean towards each party: Today the Democrats have a 2 point advantage, down three points from last month and down 7 from 2 months ago. It seems party identification is trending Republican, but is nowhere near what is needed for another 2010 to happen.

Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 14% Total 43%
Identify as Republicans 25%
Independents lean Republican 16% Total 41%

2012 party identification
Identify as Democrats 33%
Independents lean Democrat 15% Total 48%
Identify as Republicans 28%
Independents lean Republican 12% Total 40%


2010 party identification
Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 13% Total 42%
Identify as Republicans 29%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 49%


Conclusion: The president’s approval rating is rising and is not a positive sign for the republicans for big gains. The ACA gap has been closing another not so positive sign for Republican hopes to gain control of the senate. The generic congressional poll is good news for Democrats which would indicate they might gain a few seats in the House. The party favorability ratings says this should be a Democratic year. Party affiliation is about even, giving neither side an advantage. The bottom line is as of this date the indicators are mixed or pointing more to a status quo election. So do not expect another 2010 or whole sale changes in the make up or control of either chamber of Congress. Look for the Republicans to gain 3-4 senate seats, but not enough to gain control. While the House stays pretty much with the same numbers it has today, 234 Republican, 201 Democrat.
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Here ya go Pero.....this one was from FOX. Which it has the questions they were asked as well.

Fox News Poll: Independents more likely to back anti-ObamaCare candidates.....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...ore-likely-to-back-anti-obamacare-candidates/
 
Dittohead not! said:
The Keystone is a lose - lose for the president and the Democrats. If it is approved, then the environmental community will be unhappy. If it isn't approved, labor will be unhappy. Both are supporters of Democrats.

Like Harry Truman said, "No matter what you do in this job, some SOB doesn't like it." So, someone won't like it, but at least they won't like it after the November election.
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The enviros will vote Democrat no matter what they do. Like you said, this is all about Senate control.
 
Dittohead not! said:
The Keystone is a lose - lose for the president and the Democrats. If it is approved, then the environmental community will be unhappy. If it isn't approved, labor will be unhappy. Both are supporters of Democrats.

Like Harry Truman said, "No matter what you do in this job, some SOB doesn't like it." So, someone won't like it, but at least they won't like it after the November election.
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The pipeline would (or will) provide only 4,000 US jobs. The environmental community dwarfs that number. It's easy to see why he's holding it up.

He may also be waiting for Nebraska to soften and allow the pipeline through their state. That won't happen.
 
d0gbreath said:
The pipeline would (or will) provide only 4,000 US jobs. The environmental community dwarfs that number. It's easy to see why he's holding it up.

He may also be waiting for Nebraska to soften and allow the pipeline through their state. That won't happen.
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That might be.

As for the number of environmentalists, as American points out, they're pretty unlikely to vote for Republicans anyway.
 
Perotista said:
I doubt if another 2010 is in the works. Nationally the indicators just aren't there as they were in 2010 at this point in time. The five major indicators point more towards a status quo election with perhaps the Republicans gaining a few seats in each chamber. Now having said that, nation indicators are just that national indicators. It doesn't break them down into states and districts. Yet they are a good rule of thumb. As of yesterday, there is how they looked.

What are the chances of another 2010 election happening in November? Here are the five criteria that must be in place. Also you compare today with 2012 and 2010.

President Obama’s approval rating of below 45%: Todays rating: 44.7% and rising. Whether the president’s approval rating continues to rise or falls back once again will be a telltale sign whether the Republicans will have a banner year or not.
2012 approval rating 51%
2010 approval rating 44%

ACA gap of 15 points in the against/oppose side over the favor/pro ACA side: Today the gap is 11.6. About half way between a banner year for either party. It is more in line for a status quo election than a huge Republican gain.
2012 gap 5 points
2010 gap 15 points

Generic congressional poll, the Republicans must have a lead over the Democrats of 5 points or better: Today the Democrats lead by 1.6 points 41.8-40.2%. This indicator pretty much says we will have a status quo election with either party gaining or losing 5 seats.
2012 generic Democrats 50% Republicans 48%
2010 generic Democrats 45% Republicans 52%

Party Favorability/unfavorability, the Democrats must be seen in a worst light than the Republicans. But today with all voters the Republicans have a 33% favorable rating vs a 61% unfavorable. The Democrats have a 42% favorable/53% unfavorable which seems to tilt the November election in the Democrats favor.
2012 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 47/44 Republican 40/47
2010 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 39/47 Republican 44/44

Party affiliation/identification Republicans must have a 5 point lead as they did in 2010 when counting those who identify with each party plus those independents which lean towards each party: Today the Democrats have a 2 point advantage, down three points from last month and down 7 from 2 months ago. It seems party identification is trending Republican, but is nowhere near what is needed for another 2010 to happen.

Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 14% Total 43%
Identify as Republicans 25%
Independents lean Republican 16% Total 41%

2012 party identification
Identify as Democrats 33%
Independents lean Democrat 15% Total 48%
Identify as Republicans 28%
Independents lean Republican 12% Total 40%


2010 party identification
Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 13% Total 42%
Identify as Republicans 29%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 49%


Conclusion: The president’s approval rating is rising and is not a positive sign for the republicans for big gains. The ACA gap has been closing another not so positive sign for Republican hopes to gain control of the senate. The generic congressional poll is good news for Democrats which would indicate they might gain a few seats in the House. The party favorability ratings says this should be a Democratic year. Party affiliation is about even, giving neither side an advantage. The bottom line is as of this date the indicators are mixed or pointing more to a status quo election. So do not expect another 2010 or whole sale changes in the make up or control of either chamber of Congress. Look for the Republicans to gain 3-4 senate seats, but not enough to gain control. While the House stays pretty much with the same numbers it has today, 234 Republican, 201 Democrat.
Click to expand...

I question these polls only in the sense that people may offer their choices when asked but do they feel strongly enough to actually go to the polls to support those choices? A lot of the turnout may depend on who is the most concerned about the issues.
 
poweRob said:
Just creeks and small wells huh?

View attachment 67165277

It's called the Ogallala Aquifer. It irrigates almost all of the center of our country. You know. Farming land.
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OH FFS!

At least be honest enough to provide RECENT data.

They re-routed around the sensitive areas of the Ogallala five years ago.

You ARE aware that the EPA, Dept of Interior, State department and every affacted state has APPROVED this right?

Dis-information is a nice word for lying.
 
Perotista said:
Evening Jack, it seems the delay may very well doom Pryor in Arkansas and Landrieu in Louisiana. Two red state Dems that were in a heap of trouble prior to the delay announcement. What these two counted on was the pipeline to persuade the voters of Arkansas and Louisiana that having a Democratic Senator is worth something to them.

If these two can't deliver on the pipeline, that probably dooms their chances of re-election. Most prognosticators had these two states in the toss up column, color them red.
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I would suggest that your political science is weak.

Voters don't usually turn against the LOCAL politician when what they want is blocked by Washington, in this case against the will of the EPA, department of Interior, Trransport, Commerce AND the State Department, actions of a man with "a pen and a phone"......

There is no way in hell this is trouble for Republicans; more likely some serious **** for the man who has spent over a trillion dollars to no avail in a still sluggish if not stalled economy, yet another failure of policy for the Obama administration.

Anyone who thinks hard working welders, rough necks, pipeline and construction workers in the affected red states are going to turn out and vote FOR no jobs, they are dreaming in socialist technicolor.
 
MMC said:
Here ya go Pero.....this one was from FOX. Which it has the questions they were asked as well.

Fox News Poll: Independents more likely to back anti-ObamaCare candidates.....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...ore-likely-to-back-anti-obamacare-candidates/
Click to expand...

That is correct, every poll in which broke it down by party to include indies has for the last half year or so show approximately 80-20 split among Democrats voting for a candidate who supports the ACA, the Republicans are just the opposite if a bit more so showing a 90-10 split as more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes Obama care. Left to those who associate with the two major parties roughly split on the voting for candidate who support or oppose the ACA, the Dems have a larger base hence the 50-50 split. But when you throw independents into the mix, only 35% of independents are more likely to vote for a candidate that supports the ACA vs 60% more likely to vote for a candidate that opposes the ACA. Outside of the normal ups and downs, these numbers have been fairly consistent for 6 months or so.

But keep in mind, the ACA is only one issue and there are many issues which will enter or determine how the indies vote. Right now it looks like the ACA is on the GOP side. But with how many independent will the ACA be that deciding issue? We really do not know.
 
Grant said:
I question these polls only in the sense that people may offer their choices when asked but do they feel strongly enough to actually go to the polls to support those choices? A lot of the turnout may depend on who is the most concerned about the issues.
Click to expand...

Yep, it may boil down to what motivates whom. These are only national indicators, they vary state to state. It is like I said, they are a rule of the thumb, they give us an idea of what may happen, may being the optimum word. But when everything is done with, they do come pretty close to the actual results. These are tools to be used in obtaining answers, not the answers itself.
 
Fearandloathing said:
I would suggest that your political science is weak.

Voters don't usually turn against the LOCAL politician when what they want is blocked by Washington, in this case against the will of the EPA, department of Interior, Trransport, Commerce AND the State Department, actions of a man with "a pen and a phone"......

There is no way in hell this is trouble for Republicans; more likely some serious **** for the man who has spent over a trillion dollars to no avail in a still sluggish if not stalled economy, yet another failure of policy for the Obama administration.

Anyone who thinks hard working welders, rough necks, pipeline and construction workers in the affected red states are going to turn out and vote FOR no jobs, they are dreaming in socialist technicolor.
Click to expand...

Perhaps it is weak, but in Arkansas and Louisiana Pryor and Landrieu were already in trouble for their ACA vote. Not being able to deliver on the pipeline is another jab to the face that along with other things like the ACA, low Obama approval numbers, etc in those two states may be leading to the two incumbents being knocked down and replaced come November. It is the accumulation of things, not necessary one thing that I think will lead to Republican victories in Arkansas and Louisiana.

Now how many of the rank and file will switch their loyalties over the pipeline issue remains to be seen. I am sure some will as you said, they want the jobs and good paying jobs at that. But I think quite a lot won't, these union members view the Republicans as anti-union, but it is just another jab that will probably lead to two GOP pick ups come November.
 
Perotista said:
Perhaps it is weak, but in Arkansas and Louisiana Pryor and Landrieu were already in trouble for their ACA vote. Not being able to deliver on the pipeline is another jab to the face that along with other things like the ACA, low Obama approval numbers, etc in those two states may be leading to the two incumbents being knocked down and replaced come November. It is the accumulation of things, not necessary one thing that I think will lead to Republican victories in Arkansas and Louisiana.

Now how many of the rank and file will switch their loyalties over the pipeline issue remains to be seen. I am sure some will as you said, they want the jobs and good paying jobs at that. But I think quite a lot won't, these union members view the Republicans as anti-union, but it is just another jab that will probably lead to two GOP pick ups come November.
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They might or might be in trouble, but they are NOT responsible for "delivering on the pipeline".

Even a rookie speech writer can destroy that thinking....
 
Perotista said:
That is correct, every poll in which broke it down by party to include indies has for the last half year or so show approximately 80-20 split among Democrats voting for a candidate who supports the ACA, the Republicans are just the opposite if a bit more so showing a 90-10 split as more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes Obama care. Left to those who associate with the two major parties roughly split on the voting for candidate who support or oppose the ACA, the Dems have a larger base hence the 50-50 split. But when you throw independents into the mix, only 35% of independents are more likely to vote for a candidate that supports the ACA vs 60% more likely to vote for a candidate that opposes the ACA. Outside of the normal ups and downs, these numbers have been fairly consistent for 6 months or so.

But keep in mind, the ACA is only one issue and there are many issues which will enter or determine how the indies vote. Right now it looks like the ACA is on the GOP side. But with how many independent will the ACA be that deciding issue? We really do not know.
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Yeah there are quite a few issues.....and it isn't looking good for the Demos. But people wont mistake the economy and BO Care being tied together, jobs are not miraculously appearing. Prices are going up on everything and the Fed hasn't even turned on the clock. Then inflation will make its sting felt. But the real kicker and around a lot of states. Is that issue of the Demos raising taxes.

Running around and telling people they don't like doing it.....but its got to be done. Isn't going to help their case. Especially when as bad as things are and seeing how they have spent money and what they put forth over the people. Now they have Demos avoiding talking about BO care. Then some even coming out and saying BO care is about to surprise many, and they are not going to like whats coming. Using the argument of going after the rich and showing how they are about those parties while rubbing elbows with the Rich. Is going to be a problem for them too.
 
MMC said:
Yeah there are quite a few issues.....and it isn't looking good for the Demos. But people wont mistake the economy and BO Care being tied together, jobs are not miraculously appearing. Prices are going up on everything and the Fed hasn't even turned on the clock. Then inflation will make its sting felt. But the real kicker and around a lot of states. Is that issue of the Demos raising taxes.

Running around and telling people they don't like doing it.....but its got to be done. Isn't going to help their case. Especially when as bad as things are and seeing how they have spent money and what they put forth over the people. Now they have Demos avoiding talking about BO care. Then some even coming out and saying BO care is about to surprise many, and they are not going to like whats coming. Using the argument of going after the rich and showing how they are about those parties while rubbing elbows with the Rich. Is going to be a problem for them too.
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In the old days, wouldn't they have been scorned as hypocrites - raising taxes while at the same time expanding the entitlement class? Then having the gall to say "we don't like doing it, but it has to be done?" No, it doesn't have to be done! Try controlling the spending for a change! They might also try insisting that people take care of themselves and their families instead of encouraging laziness and/or sloth. I agree that there should be a safety net for those who are disabled and truly can't, but the current safety nets have grown large enough to catch whales, and able-bodied and healthy whales to boot! No excuse for that, period! No wonder there is so little self respect these days - how can there be when someone else is treating you like a child! Sheesh!
 
poweRob said:
Just hand out work visas like candy. Then they are legal and taxable and also put into the social security and medicare funds. Then apply all wage laws to them as well that way citizens have a fighting chance to get a job rather than pitting them against those working for below minimum wage... which the corporate world wants and your ideology seems to deny.
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I have already posted that I prefer open borders, which includes what you propose above. What I don't believe is that there is any over-arching corporate policy to pay below minimum wages.:peace
 
Fearandloathing said:
They might or might be in trouble, but they are NOT responsible for "delivering on the pipeline".

Even a rookie speech writer can destroy that thinking....
Click to expand...

No, you're right. But it is the perception and the political ads that will be run that counts. Reality means little to nothing to most folks when it comes to politics. Keep in mind most voters and especially independents do not keep track of the day to day goings on in Washington. Most won't start to pay attention until almost election time. But you can bet the ads will be all over the airwaves, Pryor and/or Landrieu couldn't deliver the pipeline because their party and president said no. Vote for me, my party is for the pipeline, not against.

Reality has little to do with it. It is a question of whether Cotton and Cassidy can convince the voters that these two are of the wrong party to have in Washington if you want the Keystone to become a reality. You would be surprised at how many independents with everything being fairly equal are persuaded by a slogan or something cute like that.
 
MMC said:
Yeah there are quite a few issues.....and it isn't looking good for the Demos. But people wont mistake the economy and BO Care being tied together, jobs are not miraculously appearing. Prices are going up on everything and the Fed hasn't even turned on the clock. Then inflation will make its sting felt. But the real kicker and around a lot of states. Is that issue of the Demos raising taxes.

Running around and telling people they don't like doing it.....but its got to be done. Isn't going to help their case. Especially when as bad as things are and seeing how they have spent money and what they put forth over the people. Now they have Demos avoiding talking about BO care. Then some even coming out and saying BO care is about to surprise many, and they are not going to like whats coming. Using the argument of going after the rich and showing how they are about those parties while rubbing elbows with the Rich. Is going to be a problem for them too.
Click to expand...

One thing to keep in mind, when it comes to political pundits every little thing is a game changer. In reality all these game changers may actually only effect a very small percentage of the vote if it does that at all. On sites like this, it is a big thing, out there in the real world where most people are not paying attention to politics at all, it is something that is put in the backs of people's minds.

I follow each senate race daily and check for updates, polls and articles. I do not see the Republicans taking the senate at this point and time. If I was playing Las Vegas odds maker, I would give the Republicans an 80% change for South Dakota, 70% for Montana, 60% for West Virginia, tossups or 50-50, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, 40% Michigan, 30% Colorado, 20% Iowa. Now I would give the Democrats a 40% change of winning Kentucky and a 50-50 shot at Georgia. But these are of today and can and probably will change tomorrow.
 
Perotista said:
One thing to keep in mind, when it comes to political pundits every little thing is a game changer. In reality all these game changers may actually only effect a very small percentage of the vote if it does that at all. On sites like this, it is a big thing, out there in the real world where most people are not paying attention to politics at all, it is something that is put in the backs of people's minds.

I follow each senate race daily and check for updates, polls and articles. I do not see the Republicans taking the senate at this point and time. If I was playing Las Vegas odds maker, I would give the Republicans an 80% change for South Dakota, 70% for Montana, 60% for West Virginia, tossups or 50-50, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, 40% Michigan, 30% Colorado, 20% Iowa. Now I would give the Democrats a 40% change of winning Kentucky and a 50-50 shot at Georgia. But these are of today and can and probably will change tomorrow.
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Yeah, well I don't just go by the Polls and the Pundits either Pero. One must make use of all pieces of the Puzzle. That also includes the money.....as well as the reality on the ground. Which hasn't changed much. These Demos are taking the Hit. Make no mistake about that.

Also these Unions don't have to show up for Repubs. Nor do they have to show up for the Demos. One can see what happened to Romney is going to flip back on to those who brought that tactic. What goes around comes around.
 
MMC said:
Yeah, well I don't just go by the Polls and the Pundits either Pero. One must make use of all pieces of the Puzzle. That also includes the money.....as well as the reality on the ground. Which hasn't changed much. These Demos are taking the Hit. Make no mistake about that.

Also these Unions don't have to show up for Repubs. Nor do they have to show up for the Demos. One can see what happened to Romney is going to flip back on to those who brought that tactic. What goes around comes around.
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Yep, money does have a lot to do with it. But that is just one factor. Who shows up to vote is another factor. Also when looking at polls the margin of error needs to be taken into a count. Then there is how old the poll is. The NYT/Kaiser just released a poll on Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Louisiana. That poll showed Pryor 10 points ahead of Cotton, Hagan ahead of both Tillis and Brannon by 2 points, Landrieu ahead of Cassidy by 24 points, McConnell was ahead of Grimes by 1. I did some head scratching and then looked inside the polls to find out whom they polled, in all four states they polled more Democrats than Republicans by an average of 6 points more. That is strange because each of those states have more Republicans than Democrats with the exception of North Carolina which is pretty even. That poll also polled far more Obama voters than Romney voters and yet Romney won all 4 states.

So it is into the trashcan with this poll. When I call my states for the senate which I do monthly, I call with all the information I have and how I think the election would turn out today, not in November. But like you said, there really hasn't been all that much of a change. I do expect quite a lot of changes after the primaries which are now just getting started. This is why I think at this point in time, the five national indicators I keep track of is also important. I realize they will vary by state and in some states might be way off. But there is a lot of other factors and we must not forget turnout.

If the election were held today, the Republicans would pick up 3-4 seats in the senate. Perhaps 4-5 in the House. But the Republicans have a chance of gaining as many as 8 seats in the senate, but with what I see today, that ain't about to happen. But who knows what events will take place between now and election day or whom the Republicans will nominate to face these Democratic Incumbents? Will they nominate more Aikens, Mourdocks, Angles, O'Donnells or will they nominate good candidates?

I think come July we will have a better idea as to the chances of the GOP gaining the senate. This far out it is a crap shoot.
 
Grant said:
How about putting pressure on foreign governments to allow more freedom and less corruption in order that people won't have to uproot themselves from their homelands in order to properly feed their families. It seems to me that the US gets a lot of blame for not letting people in when the real responsibility lies at the source of the problem.
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We have a government of the United States. I'm dealing with United States policy. We have little to no say in how Mexico chooses to run their country sooooo... in short, we are not the world dictator.
 
Perotista said:
No, you're right. But it is the perception and the political ads that will be run that counts. Reality means little to nothing to most folks when it comes to politics. Keep in mind most voters and especially independents do not keep track of the day to day goings on in Washington. Most won't start to pay attention until almost election time. But you can bet the ads will be all over the airwaves, Pryor and/or Landrieu couldn't deliver the pipeline because their party and president said no. Vote for me, my party is for the pipeline, not against.

Reality has little to do with it. It is a question of whether Cotton and Cassidy can convince the voters that these two are of the wrong party to have in Washington if you want the Keystone to become a reality. You would be surprised at how many independents with everything being fairly equal are persuaded by a slogan or something cute like that.
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You know what? You may continue your self deceptions. No where have you offered ONE iota of evidence this is even possible in political science terms and now suggest "spin" by attack ads will win the day.

As is usually the case with the partisan, forgotten of course is the fact opponents get to attack as well. And as a party with 40 different versions of "If you can keep your plan..." as a seasoned political observer and speech writer, I would rather eat crushed glass than try to hang the delay in the XL on Republicans.
 
Fearandloathing said:
You know what? You may continue your self deceptions. No where have you offered ONE iota of evidence this is even possible in political science terms and now suggest "spin" by attack ads will win the day.

As is usually the case with the partisan, forgotten of course is the fact opponents get to attack as well. And as a party with 40 different versions of "If you can keep your plan..." as a seasoned political observer and speech writer, I would rather eat crushed glass than try to hang the delay in the XL on Republicans.
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Where in the world did you ever get the idea I hung the delay on the Republicans? I hung it to use your phrase directly on Obama and stated the delay would hurt Landrieu and Pryor and the campaign ads would be run against them if the Republicans are smart point this out. Pointing out have a Democratic Senator representing those who wanted the pipeline didn't help one bit and electing a Republican, a party much in favor of the pipeline would suit the voters of Arkansas and Louisiana better in accomplishing getting the pipeline approved.

One of must be confused as all get out. No where in hades did I even mention hanging the delay on the Republicans. Hmm. Oh well.
 
poweRob said:
Just creeks and small wells huh?

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It's called the Ogallala Aquifer. It irrigates almost all of the center of our country. You know. Farming land.
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I don't think you have a solid appreciation for how large some of these aquifers are and how much pollutant would be required to have an appreciable impact. We have pipelines that crosscross aquifers all over this country and there is a reason we haven't lost them. You also massively dodged the other part of my post.
 
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