So it is into the trashcan with this poll. When I call my states for the senate which I do monthly, I call with all the information I have and how I think the election would turn out today, not in November. But like you said, there really hasn't been all that much of a change. I do expect quite a lot of changes after the primaries which are now just getting started. This is why I think at this point in time, the five national indicators I keep track of is also important. I realize they will vary by state and in some states might be way off. But there is a lot of other factors and we must not forget turnout.
If the election were held today, the Republicans would pick up 3-4 seats in the senate. Perhaps 4-5 in the House. But the Republicans have a chance of gaining as many as 8 seats in the senate, but with what I see today, that ain't about to happen. But who knows what events will take place between now and election day or whom the Republicans will nominate to face these Democratic Incumbents? Will they nominate more Aikens, Mourdocks, Angles, O'Donnells or will they nominate good candidates?
I think come July we will have a better idea as to the chances of the GOP gaining the senate. This far out it is a crap shoot.