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Thread: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

  1. #1201
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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    First, I do not even begin to care what the BLS sites as the accuracy of their claims. That is like a corporation doing an internal audit...totally bias and completely useless.
    How on earth could it be biased? It's straight math and it would not be possible to have any different answers. The sampling error is straight fact.


    Second, the BLS has apparently, on occasion, been pressured (and agreed) to cook the numbers for political higher ups.
    Neither link supports that claim. A nd you're citing heavily biased sources and the articles contain a lot of "could haves" and "possibly"s. Why do you have two different standards?

    Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report | New York Post of course curbstoning happens; that's why it's watched out for and why Buckmon was fired. There is nothing to show any political motivation and no one is claiming any particular result was asked for or could have been obtained. Read it again and then tell us what the FACTS in that article are. Not speculation, not unsupported claims, but facts.

    [QuoteThird, as I believe I have stated before - the CES is NOT a stright tabulation. There is a TON of creative math and modelling going on. The Net Birth/Death Model is just one of them.

    CES Net Birth/Death Model
    what would you consider a "straight tabulation?" And of course there's math and modelling. But why do you think the modeling is inaccurate? Present facts and evidence, not your bias or zero hedge' shows.

    'Birth/Death does not refer to people but to businesses. The BLS guesses how many new companies opened versus how many closed their doors. The BLS then uses that guess to guess again how many jobs those business created or lost.'
    Statistical modeling is not a "Guess."
    And you're ignoring the QCEW. Which is not a survey, but a full count. The CES is not off by much when compared to the actual numbers.

    I am not saying the CPS is great either...but I believe their tabulation process is less adjusted by 'modeling'
    I'm confused by your use of "belief." Is it or is it not less adjusted? That's not a matter of belief or opinion.
    But in any case, less adjusted does not mean more accurate. Modeling and adjustments are made to increase accuracy.

    It's simple, you have faith (apparently) that the BLS is an honorable organization that would never fudge numbers.
    In over 100 years no one has ever shown they have, and I personally know many of the people involved. So it's not "faith"

    I say the BLS regularly fudges the numbers through usually legal tabulation/modelling processes to get the result their superiors desire.
    You can say it all you want, but it's still a lie. And you clearly don't understand the first thing about statistic
    And you have no evidence or reason except your own bias or biased sources.

    believe the CPS is the more accurate number (when it is not being deliberately manipulated) - you do not.
    It's No a matter of belief! Factually, numerically, by simple math, the CES is more accurate and that accuracy we m proven every year by comparison to the actual numbers.


    B]And, with respect, nothing you have provided has factually proven me wrong as I asked for links to unbiased, factual proof that what I said was wrong.
    Yes, I did. Bias is not possible when talking about error rates. And you have presented neither facts nor unbiased evidence.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    For an example of how the CPS data is more prone to non-sampling error, we can look at the Employment Situation News Release for October 2013, which covered the government shutdown.

    Some agencies of the federal government were shut down or were |
    | operating at reduced staffing levels from October 1, 2013, |
    | through October 16, 2013. All household and establishment survey |
    | operations, including data collection, were suspended during |
    | that time period. Shortly after the shutdown ended, October data |
    | collection for both surveys began. The Bureau of Labor |
    | Statistics (BLS) delayed the publication of this release by 1 |
    | week to allow enough time to collect data. The reference periods |
    | for the surveys were not changed. The response rate for the |
    | household survey was within its normal range, and the response |
    | rate for the establishment survey was above average. |
    | |
    | In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, |
    | unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their answers to |
    | a series of questions about their activities during the survey |
    | reference week. Workers who indicate that they were not working |
    | during the entire survey reference week and expected to be |
    | recalled to their jobs should be classified in the household |
    | survey as unemployed on temporary layoff. In October 2013, there |
    | was an increase in the number of federal workers who were |
    | classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, there |
    | also was an increase in the number of federal workers who were |
    | classified as employed but absent from work. BLS analysis of the |
    | data indicates that this group included federal workers affected |
    | by the shutdown who also should have been classified as |
    | unemployed on temporary layoff. Such a misclassification is an |
    | example of nonsampling error and can occur when respondents |
    | misunderstand questions or interviewers record answers |
    | incorrectly. According to usual practice, the data from the |
    | household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain |
    | data integrity, no ad hoc actions taken to reassign survey |
    | responses. |
    | |
    | It should be noted that household survey data for federal |
    | workers are available only on a not seasonally adjusted basis. |
    | As a result, over-the-month changes in federal worker data |
    | series cannot be compared with seasonally adjusted over-the- |
    | month changes in total employed and unemployed. |
    | |
    | In the establishment survey, businesses report the number of |
    | people who work or receive pay for any part of the pay period |
    | that includes the 12th of the month. Persons who work or receive |
    | pay for any part of the pay period are defined as employed. This |
    | method of classifying workers is the same in all industries, |
    | including the federal government. Federal employees on furlough |
    | during the partial federal government shutdown were still |
    | considered employed in the payroll survey because they worked or |
    | received pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the |
    | month.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    And yours is the typical liberal response when you don't get your way.
    How is it that I "didn't get my way"?

    >>Fact, your post was difficult to read and impossible to respond to point by point

    It may well be a fact that is is difficult for you to respond to; I really can't say. All of the excerpts I cited were posted by you in a single post. The first excerpt was placed within a linked text box. After that, all of your comments were preceded by two angle brackets, while all of mine were not. (Am I going slowly enough for ya?)

    The format goes like this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    your comment
    my response

    >>your comment

    my response

    >>your comment

    my response


    Is that structure is too complicated for ya?

    >>Learn how to use this forum and I will be happy to engage you and make you look foolish by offering actual verifiable facts.

    I really don't care if you respond to me or not. I seriously doubt that you are capable of making me look foolish. I'll admit that I can do it to myself; bothering to have this dialogue is perhaps an example of it. And I would note that a lot of what I put up is indeed "actual verifiable facts." Point to one that isn't you cannot.

    >>If you cannot do that then I suggest you move to another country

    Not going anywhere.

    >>personal wealth that you are jealous about

    Quite laughable, dittohead. I have everything I want. If I came into a lot of money, I'd give it away.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    your rebuts are a mess and hard to read.
    I have every confidence that a typical eight-year-old could follow the format without a bit of difficulty: comments I'm responding to are preceded by two angle brackets; my responses are not. Is it really all that complicated? If it is, just don't bother reading my posts. Problem solved.

    >>Use the " Reply with Quote " button, and then copy and paste the beginning and ending of the "Quote" function when you want to make additional replies. I know you can do it

    I would simply type "[/QUOTE]" if I wanted to, saving the clipboard for other material. And yet I choose not to. ☺

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Let me be clear so as to save you wasting your time...I am interested in only one thing in the economic threads...facts/data from unbiased sources.
    I appreciate yer concern, but I have all the time in the world.

    >>I am not in the SLIGHTEST bit interested in opinions from most people - especially from those who I believe have closed minds...as you seem to have (no offense).

    In that case, I would suggest that you should not bother to read them.

    >>Since I did not see a link in your reply, I did not read it.

    I'll do best to get over the heartbreak of knowing that.

    >>If you cannot provide links to facts from unbiased sources then you are of no use to me in this thread.

    Oh well, I tried.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    How on earth could it be biased? It's straight math and it would not be possible to have any different answers. The sampling error is straight fact.


    Neither link supports that claim. A nd you're citing heavily biased sources and the articles contain a lot of "could haves" and "possibly"s. Why do you have two different standards?

    what would you consider a "straight tabulation?" And of course there's math and modelling. But why do you think the modeling is inaccurate? Present facts and evidence, not your bias or zero hedge' shows.

    Statistical modeling is not a "Guess."
    And you're ignoring the QCEW. Which is not a survey, but a full count. The CES is not off by much when compared to the actual numbers.


    I'm confused by your use of "belief." Is it or is it not less adjusted? That's not a matter of belief or opinion.
    But in any case, less adjusted does not mean more accurate. Modeling and adjustments are made to increase accuracy.


    In over 100 years no one has ever shown they have, and I personally know many of the people involved. So it's not "faith"

    You can say it all you want, but it's still a lie. And you clearly don't understand the first thing about statistic
    And you have no evidence or reason except your own bias or biased sources.

    It's No a matter of belief! Factually, numerically, by simple math, the CES is more accurate and that accuracy we m proven every year by comparison to the actual numbers.



    Yes, I did. Bias is not possible when talking about error rates. And you have presented neither facts nor unbiased evidence.
    No offense but I almost never do huge, multi-quote posts...not for anyone...life is WAY too short for that. All they usually end up doing is becoming massive, pointless, round-and-round, urinating contests.

    As I told mmi, all I am interested in economic threads is links to data/facts from unbiased sources...NOTHING more.

    And since the only links you keep providing are from the BLS...which is an INCREDIBLY biased source when discussing the BLS...they interest me little in this discussion.

    Now this has gone past my point of caring. If you have links to unbiased sources...and NOT government based ones...I might look at them.
    Otherwise, I am just going to move on...again, life is too short to spent it going round and round with faceless/nameless people about subjects I only moderately care about on a chat forum.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 05-18-14 at 08:07 PM.

  7. #1207
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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    As I told mmi, all I am interested in economic threads is links to data/facts from unbiased sources...NOTHING more.
    From others. You seem to have no problem using biased sources engaging in speculation instead of facts. And you const a burly refer to your opinion or belief.

    [Quoute]And since the only links you keep providing are from the BLS...which is an INCREDIBLY biased source when discussing the BLS...they interest me little in this discussion.[/quote] again, how could facts and technical details be biased????
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    From others. You seem to have no problem using biased sources engaging in speculation instead of facts. And you const a burly refer to your opinion or belief.

    [Quoute]And since the only links you keep providing are from the BLS...which is an INCREDIBLY biased source when discussing the BLS...they interest me little in this discussion.

    again, how could facts and technical details be biased????
    I believe I generally post links to (attempt to) back up my statements...or at least, that is my intention. But, I sometimes am in a mood to just kill time, so I might blather a bit.
    Hey, you do not have to read my opinions either.
    I have said many times...I am here to learn, teach and kill time.


    I said unbiased sources. When defending the BLS, surely you, a seemingly bright fellow, cannot honestly believe that the BLS is an unbiased source?

    This is going nowhere...I do not wish to seem rude (again)...but unless you have a link from an UNBIASED source(s) to disprove what I said using ONLY data/facts, then I will not respond to this line of debate further.
    I suggest we just agree to disagree and move on.

    I sincerely hope you have a good evening.
    Last edited by DA60; 05-18-14 at 08:36 PM.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I believe I generally post links to (attempt to) back up my statements..
    And those links are not factual and are heavily biased.


    I said unbiased sources. When defending the BLS, surely you, a seemingly bright fellow, cannot honestly believe that the BLS is an unbiased source?
    Where do you see bias? Stating sample size, methodology, probability error, benchmarks, etc, how is bias possible? They're just facts.

    but unless you have a link from an UNBIASED source(s) to disprove what I said using ONLY data/facts, then I will not respond to this line of debate further.
    I'm waiting for you to live up to the standards you insist on. Give any unbiased source showing data or facts that shows the CPS employment data is more accurate than the CES.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  10. #1210
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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    We are all going to post links that appear to be bias to the other side. I suspect that is the only way it can work.

    heck, moderate sources are often accused of being biased by both sides, I have seen far left liberals accuse CNN of being conservative and I have seen those on the far right accuse the same station of being liberal.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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