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Thread: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I apologize as I was too harsh with you.
    No problem, I'm thick-skinned.

    If you have links to unbiased facts that disproves what I said, please provide them and I will look at them.
    Easy. There are 2 kinds of error: sampling and non-sampling error. Sampling error is the math on how much the sample could be off. For the employment level from the CPS, the standard error is approximately +/- 323,000. And the month to month change error is +/- 265,000. The 90th percentile confidence level is 1.645 standard errors, so the level error would be +/- 531,000 and the change is +/- 436,000. http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf

    The CES standard error is about +/- 0.1% and the change is +/- 57,494. At 90th percentile 1.645 standard errors) so that's +/- 0.1645% (227,000) and +/- 95,000 for the level All Employees Standard Error Tables

    Furthermore, for the CES only, we can find out the non-s molding error (mistakes, misunderstandings, lies, etc) because the CES is benchmarked to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages… the Unemployment Insurance tax records. So the actual numbers (adjusted for slight differences in scope) averages about 0.3% off from the CES estimate CES Tables and Charts

    Otherwise, let's just agree to disagree?
    I don't get that…accuracy is not a matter of opinion. It is a fact that the FED is more accurate. But keep in mind that they do not measure the same thing. An article on the differences http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/02/art2full.pdf

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    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    No problem, I'm thick-skinned.

    Easy. There are 2 kinds of error: sampling and non-sampling error. Sampling error is the math on how much the sample could be off. For the employment level from the CPS, the standard error is approximately +/- 323,000. And the month to month change error is +/- 265,000. The 90th percentile confidence level is 1.645 standard errors, so the level error would be +/- 531,000 and the change is +/- 436,000. http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf

    The CES standard error is about +/- 0.1% and the change is +/- 57,494. At 90th percentile 1.645 standard errors) so that's +/- 0.1645% (227,000) and +/- 95,000 for the level All Employees Standard Error Tables

    Furthermore, for the CES only, we can find out the non-s molding error (mistakes, misunderstandings, lies, etc) because the CES is benchmarked to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages… the Unemployment Insurance tax records. So the actual numbers (adjusted for slight differences in scope) averages about 0.3% off from the CES estimate CES Tables and Charts

    I don't get that…accuracy is not a matter of opinion. It is a fact that the FED is more accurate. But keep in mind that they do not measure the same thing. An article on the differences http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/02/art2full.pdf

    If something is not clear, I'll do my best to a newer.
    First, I do not even begin to care what the BLS sites as the accuracy of their claims. That is like a corporation doing an internal audit...totally bias and completely useless.


    Second, the BLS has apparently, on occasion, been pressured (and agreed) to cook the numbers for political higher ups.

    Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report | New York Post

    Census office survey scandal grows as inflation stats faked | New York Post


    Third, as I believe I have stated before - the CES is NOT a stright tabulation. There is a TON of creative math and modelling going on. The Net Birth/Death Model is just one of them.

    CES Net Birth/Death Model

    'Birth/Death does not refer to people but to businesses. The BLS guesses how many new companies opened versus how many closed their doors. The BLS then uses that guess to guess again how many jobs those business created or lost.'

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mor...-art-cashin-15

    I am not saying the CPS is great either...but I believe their tabulation process is less adjusted by 'modelling'...although my above link appears to show that even the CPS is open to flat out fraud.



    It's simple, you have faith (apparently) that the BLS is an honorable organization that would never fudge numbers. But - considering you say you worked there - you are clearly biased.
    I say the BLS regularly fudges the numbers through usually legal tabulation/modelling processes to get the result their superiors desire.

    I believe the CPS is the more accurate number (when it is not being deliberately manipulated) - you do not.


    And, with respect, nothing you have provided has factually proven me wrong as I asked for links to unbiased, factual proof that what I said was wrong.

    Citing sources from the BLS itself is in NO WAY unbiased...it is the exact opposite.
    Last edited by DA60; 05-18-14 at 01:08 AM.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Please learn how to respond to posts. I will not correct this one for you. If you want a response, post the quotes accurately and properly.
    In a way, I want to give you credit for being original. But I very quickly must decide that that is the weakest, most pathetic example of excuse-making I've even seen in a discussion group. There isn't even a tone of defiance, just an avoidant-dismissive withdrawal.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    In a way, I want to give you credit for being original. But I very quickly must decide that that is the weakest, most pathetic example of excuse-making I've even seen in a discussion group. There isn't even a tone of defiance, just an avoidant-dismissive withdrawal.
    Pathetic? He is completely right.

    Your 'quotes' are ridiculous. There is no realistic way to know who said what.

    And your quote replies are just a jumbled mess.

    Hey, we all seem to know how to do it properly. So you can do it as well...it ain't gonna kill you.

    If you are not sure how, just ask anyone or a mod.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    There is no realistic way to know who said what.
    "Conservative" said them all, and all in one post. I used a linked quote box for the first excerpt in the two posts I put up one right after the other (I hit the 8K character limit). You can argue that I should have done so for the first excerpt in the second post. It didn't occur to me.

    Does he not recognize his own words from a couple of days earlier? And even if he doesn't, does he now disavow them? Seems disingenuous t' me.

    >>your quote replies are just a jumbled mess

    Any examples?

    I'm not going to use linked quote boxes for every excerpt I cite. If the author of the material changes, I again use a linked quote box. This is of course done to allow others to follow what's going on. The poster knows what he/she said.

    If you guys don't want to respond to my posts, I'll survive. In fact, it'll save me the time I spend repeating myself when you fail to address the issues I raise.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    First, I do not even begin to care what the BLS sites as the accuracy of their claims. That is like a corporation doing an internal audit...totally bias and completely useless.
    The information provided by pinqy in that post is just an outline of the potential error involved in the results of these surveys. As he noted, "accuracy is not a matter of opinion."

    >>Second, the BLS has apparently, on occasion, been pressured (and agreed) to cook the numbers for political higher ups.

    Apparently? This very quickly becomes a dead end. People who don't like the numbers from BLS can claim that "the books are cooked," point to one employee among thousands who falsified a very tiny amount of data, and claim that the survey results should be ignored, or even better held up as an example of vile corruption.

    The Census Bureau spends some of those hard-earned taxpayer dollars we're all justifiably concerned about verifying the accuracy of the CPS survey, and I can say that I have a 100% confidence level that no supervisor ever told a field rep to "just go ahead and fabricate it." What would be the point? If someone can't get the work done, the office will easily find someone who can. Why anyone would believe this story from the "very ambitious" Mr. Buckmon is beyond me.

    >>Third, as I believe I have stated before - the CES is NOT a stright tabulation. There is a TON of creative math and modelling going on. The Net Birth/Death Model is just one of them.

    So you want the Bureau to contact every single employer in the country every month to collect more accurate data? The statisticians at BLS are world-class; they could make a lot more money working in the private sector. They're public servants and their work is both highly respected and very carefully scrutinized.

    There's a real irony involved here. To gain the desired level of statistical validity, the CPS requires a ninety percent response rate. In recent years, the agency has struggled to get that, and in a number of months has fallen short.

    Government-haters are a large percentage of those who initially refuse to participate. And they are in fact the most difficult to persuade. Time constraints can be dealt with fairly easily, as can concerns about privacy and confidentiality. But what can you do with a Tea Partier who slams the door in yer face when they find yer a federal employee, or with some nut that grabs a shotgun or a baseball bat to "defend liberty"?

    >>even the CPS is open to flat out fraud

    And what in this world isn't?

    >>I say the BLS regularly fudges the numbers through usually legal tabulation/modelling processes to get the result their superiors desire.

    Well, I guess you win that argument. I mean if you "say it," how could anyone question it? And I assume that under a Republican administration they "fudge the numbers" in the opposite direction, to make their superiors look bad. The fact that only Democrats are employed by the agency must go a long way in furthering this massive conspiracy.

    >>nothing you have provided has factually proven me wrong as I asked for links to unbiased, factual proof that what I said was wrong.

    Not everyone can rely on sources like the New York Post and Zero Hedge to back them up.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    are you going to even keep an open mind ?
    Please proceed, Governor.

    >>I've got all the proof I need ready to go with links.

    Loaded for bear, are ya? I anticipate nothing but rhetoric and links to right-wing sites. Since it's all so clear to you, and you've been over this material so many times, why not just tell me what you know?

    >>the typical blame the banks and Bush nonsense that typifies the Liberal account of what happened in 2008

    If you read my earlier post and see that as "the typical blame" account, perhaps you should spare yerself the effort. I said "[y]ou can join me in blaming Clinton, Bush, Greenspan, and those in Congress who voted to gut the mortgage lending regulations." Apparently, you want Mr. Bush's name removed for that list. As I recall, he was in office for a few years before the crisis hit.

    Mr. Bush did foresee the danger posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants. The president spent years pushing a recalcitrant Congress to toughen regulation of the companies, but was unwilling to compromise when his former Treasury secretary wanted to cut a deal. And the regulator Mr. Bush chose to oversee them — an old prep school buddy — pronounced the companies sound even as they headed toward insolvency.

    As early as 2006, top advisers to Mr. Bush dismissed warnings from people inside and outside the White House that housing prices were inflated and that a foreclosure crisis was looming. And when the economy deteriorated, Mr. Bush and his team misdiagnosed the reasons and scope of the downturn; as recently as February, for example, Mr. Bush was still calling it a “rough patch.”

    The result was a series of piecemeal policy prescriptions that lagged behind the escalating crisis.

    “There is no question we did not recognize the severity of the problems,” said Al Hubbard, Mr. Bush’s former chief economics adviser, who left the White House in December 2007. “Had we, we would have attacked them.”

    Looking back, Keith B. Hennessey, Mr. Bush’s current chief economics adviser, says he and his colleagues did the best they could “with the information we had at the time.” But Mr. Hennessey did say he regretted that the administration did not pay more heed to the dangers of easy lending practices. And both Mr. Paulson and his predecessor, John W. Snow, say the housing push went too far.

    “The Bush administration took a lot of pride that homeownership had reached historic highs,” Mr. Snow said in an interview. “But what we forgot in the process was that it has to be done in the context of people being able to afford their house. We now realize there was a high cost.” — White House Philosophy Stoked Mortgage Bonfire, NYT, Dec 20, 2008

    Believe it or not, I tried to limit the amount of material I quoted from that article. As far as Mr. Bush's responsibility goes, I'd say those reporters did a pretty thorough job.

    If banks had no responsibility, why are they settling for tens of billions of dollars in fines?

    In any event , I await yer "proof" regarding the central role played by the CRA in precipitating the crisis. Please recall that this has been my focus (#1170). I put up one link to a very brief argument that included F & F along with the CRA as institutions being held to a level of undeserved culpability. If you think you can present an informed indictment of F & F, I'll look it over, but my point has been to defend the CRA for a very simple reason: some on the Right love to hammer on it because it's associated with … BLACKS! Ya know, those horrible, lazy, shiftless people that the Democrat party bribes into voting for them with freebies and giveaways funded by taxes collected from the upstanding, God-fearing whites who built this country.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    In a way, I want to give you credit for being original. But I very quickly must decide that that is the weakest, most pathetic example of excuse-making I've even seen in a discussion group. There isn't even a tone of defiance, just an avoidant-dismissive withdrawal.
    And yours is the typical liberal response when you don't get your way. Fact, your post was difficult to read and impossible to respond to point by point but then typical liberalism takes over.Learn how to use this forum and I will be happy to engage you and make you look foolish by offering actual verifiable facts.

    If you cannot do that then I suggest you move to another country more in line with your ideology as liberalism is killing this country and its economy. Maybe that is what you want because this economy has survived centuries and generated a lot of personal wealth that you are jealous about.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Please proceed, Governor.

    >>I've got all the proof I need ready to go with links.

    Loaded for bear, are ya? I anticipate nothing but rhetoric and links to right-wing sites. Since it's all so clear to you, and you've been over this material so many times, why not just tell me what you know?

    >>the typical blame the banks and Bush nonsense that typifies the Liberal account of what happened in 2008

    If you read my earlier post and see that as "the typical blame" account, perhaps you should spare yerself the effort. I said "[y]ou can join me in blaming Clinton, Bush, Greenspan, and those in Congress who voted to gut the mortgage lending regulations." Apparently, you want Mr. Bush's name removed for that list. As I recall, he was in office for a few years before the crisis hit.

    Mr. Bush did foresee the danger posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants. The president spent years pushing a recalcitrant Congress to toughen regulation of the companies, but was unwilling to compromise when his former Treasury secretary wanted to cut a deal. And the regulator Mr. Bush chose to oversee them — an old prep school buddy — pronounced the companies sound even as they headed toward insolvency.

    As early as 2006, top advisers to Mr. Bush dismissed warnings from people inside and outside the White House that housing prices were inflated and that a foreclosure crisis was looming. And when the economy deteriorated, Mr. Bush and his team misdiagnosed the reasons and scope of the downturn; as recently as February, for example, Mr. Bush was still calling it a “rough patch.”

    The result was a series of piecemeal policy prescriptions that lagged behind the escalating crisis.

    “There is no question we did not recognize the severity of the problems,” said Al Hubbard, Mr. Bush’s former chief economics adviser, who left the White House in December 2007. “Had we, we would have attacked them.”

    Looking back, Keith B. Hennessey, Mr. Bush’s current chief economics adviser, says he and his colleagues did the best they could “with the information we had at the time.” But Mr. Hennessey did say he regretted that the administration did not pay more heed to the dangers of easy lending practices. And both Mr. Paulson and his predecessor, John W. Snow, say the housing push went too far.

    “The Bush administration took a lot of pride that homeownership had reached historic highs,” Mr. Snow said in an interview. “But what we forgot in the process was that it has to be done in the context of people being able to afford their house. We now realize there was a high cost.” — White House Philosophy Stoked Mortgage Bonfire, NYT, Dec 20, 2008

    Believe it or not, I tried to limit the amount of material I quoted from that article. As far as Mr. Bush's responsibility goes, I'd say those reporters did a pretty thorough job.

    If banks had no responsibility, why are they settling for tens of billions of dollars in fines?

    In any event , I await yer "proof" regarding the central role played by the CRA in precipitating the crisis. Please recall that this has been my focus (#1170). I put up one link to a very brief argument that included F & F along with the CRA as institutions being held to a level of undeserved culpability. If you think you can present an informed indictment of F & F, I'll look it over, but my point has been to defend the CRA for a very simple reason: some on the Right love to hammer on it because it's associated with … BLACKS! Ya know, those horrible, lazy, shiftless people that the Democrat party bribes into voting for them with freebies and giveaways funded by taxes collected from the upstanding, God-fearing whites who built this country.
    Ok, I'm going to try to help you out because your rebuts are a mess and hard to read.

    Use the " Reply with Quote " button, and then copy and paste the beginning and ending of the "Quote" function when you want to make additional replies.

    I know you can do it
    The New Democratic Party Slogan :

    " Return to Power By Any Means Necessary "

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    The information provided by pinqy in that post is just an outline of the potential error involved in the results of these surveys. As he noted, "accuracy is not a matter of opinion."

    >>Second, the BLS has apparently, on occasion, been pressured (and agreed) to cook the numbers for political higher ups.

    Apparently? This very quickly becomes a dead end. People who don't like the numbers from BLS can claim that "the books are cooked," point to one employee among thousands who falsified a very tiny amount of data, and claim that the survey results should be ignored, or even better held up as an example of vile corruption.

    The Census Bureau spends some of those hard-earned taxpayer dollars we're all justifiably concerned about verifying the accuracy of the CPS survey, and I can say that I have a 100% confidence level that no supervisor ever told a field rep to "just go ahead and fabricate it." What would be the point? If someone can't get the work done, the office will easily find someone who can. Why anyone would believe this story from the "very ambitious" Mr. Buckmon is beyond me.

    >>Third, as I believe I have stated before - the CES is NOT a stright tabulation. There is a TON of creative math and modelling going on. The Net Birth/Death Model is just one of them.

    So you want the Bureau to contact every single employer in the country every month to collect more accurate data? The statisticians at BLS are world-class; they could make a lot more money working in the private sector. They're public servants and their work is both highly respected and very carefully scrutinized.

    There's a real irony involved here. To gain the desired level of statistical validity, the CPS requires a ninety percent response rate. In recent years, the agency has struggled to get that, and in a number of months has fallen short.

    Government-haters are a large percentage of those who initially refuse to participate. And they are in fact the most difficult to persuade. Time constraints can be dealt with fairly easily, as can concerns about privacy and confidentiality. But what can you do with a Tea Partier who slams the door in yer face when they find yer a federal employee, or with some nut that grabs a shotgun or a baseball bat to "defend liberty"?

    >>even the CPS is open to flat out fraud

    And what in this world isn't?

    >>I say the BLS regularly fudges the numbers through usually legal tabulation/modelling processes to get the result their superiors desire.

    Well, I guess you win that argument. I mean if you "say it," how could anyone question it? And I assume that under a Republican administration they "fudge the numbers" in the opposite direction, to make their superiors look bad. The fact that only Democrats are employed by the agency must go a long way in furthering this massive conspiracy.

    >>nothing you have provided has factually proven me wrong as I asked for links to unbiased, factual proof that what I said was wrong.

    Not everyone can rely on sources like the New York Post and Zero Hedge to back them up.
    Let me be clear so as to save you wasting your time...I am interested in only one thing in the economic threads...facts/data from unbiased sources.

    I am not in the SLIGHTEST bit interested in opinions from most people - especially from those who I believe have closed minds...as you seem to have (no offense).

    Since I did not see a link in your reply, I did not read it.

    Once again, I am interested in facts...not opinions - life is too short.

    If you cannot provide links to facts from unbiased sources then you are of no use to me in this thread.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 05-18-14 at 12:13 PM.

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