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Thread: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Yes. The +288K figure comes from the "establishment" survey, while the number you gave is from the "household" survey. The household survey is used to generate the various measures of under/unemployment, and the figure from CES is really more useful if yer looking to gauge monthly changes in employment. It's published on this page.

    >>I choose mine as there are too many assumptions in the 288,000 model for my taste You don't agree...I don't much care.

    What are the assumptions that concern you? Here is a summary of them from the agency.

    >>retail spending up only 0.1% for April

    But, like I said, up +1.5% in March. These figures bounce around, so a moving average is often more useful. February's number was +0.3%, ao the three-month average is a little more than +0.6%, an annual rate of about 7.5%. I don't see that as "stalling," but I suppose others may judge me to be "clueless or in denial."
    Mmi I want to at least thank you for laying your argument out in a civil manner. It is appreciated, even if I disagree with you in nearly every aspect.

    With that said, the biggest "lie" I see coming from Obama is when he touts that he is for the lower and middle classes, when in practice his policies hit us the hardest.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    I don't quibble over a lot.. just when facts are wrong.
    Well, I was asked for a list of what I thought has worked, not for facts. And before you say that it's obvious there's a big difference between the two, I don't think everything you put in that post is a "fact" either. For example:

    >>TARP didn't save us. TARP propped up failed Banks who had their hands in the pockets of the politicians. Citi, BofA, GS and others should have failed and failed hard. But they got special treatment, Government was better off giving that money to Main Street instead of Wall Street.

    I don't agree that those banks were "failed." If the ones you listed had indeed "failed," and I'm not at all clear on what that would have involved, I think we would have been in a lot of trouble. Finally, I don't think the money was "given" to the banks; as I understand it, it was "lent" to them. As of last month, the Treasury has shown a $32 billion profit on the TARP expenditures.

    >>Stimulus created nothing. Stimulus was done in 2010 and it's now 2014 and we still don't have the number of jobs we did in 2007. That's a massive fail. It's also a massive fail because it cost based on who you follow, from $90k to $250k job created. That's 2x to 5xs median income.

    Private-sector employment in Dec 2009 was 138 million. In April, it was 145.7 million. I think saying "we still don't have the number of jobs we did in 2007" is misleading. It could be argued instead that we've now gained back all the jobs we lost.

    That $250K figure can be dismissed, I'd say. $90K is much more reasonable, but I'm not sure that takes into account all of the associated economic impacts, especially the tax revenues collected from people who got the jobs. That seems reasonable, since we're, in this context, talking about public expenditures to fund a jobs program. Accounting for those would yield a figure closer to $60K.

    I'm sure you'd want to use a larger number. In the end, I'd say it's very difficult to calculate. One important feature of the ARRA may be that it gave people the idea that the government was doing something to alleviate the economic crisis at the time, much like some of the programs instituted by FDR. In a modern advanced industrial economy, it's important to keep up public confidence. Otherwise, things can really get out of hand.

    I would agree that the legislation could have been crafted more wisely. But it's easy to say that Obama should not have allowed the Congress to have as much control over the design of the bill, given that it required congressional support to even get to his desk.

    >>You saved 2 Automakers who were bankrupt prior to the recession. Of which Government lost money on. Ford didn't take a bail out.

    The estimates I've seen are that the auto rescue saved around three million jobs, at a time when we sure couldn't afford to lose them. The agreement the administration negotiated included significant increases in fuel efficiency that strengthen the companies' competitiveness, have a positive impact on our balance of trade, and help the environment.

    >>There hasn't been one reform on Wall Street. Frank-Dodd is still in the process of regulation writing which is probably will never be done.

    Yeah, I can't really argue with that. I might wanna call it a work in progress. We did collect some big fines and more are in the works as I understand it — something like $100 billion collected so far. Better than taxes, right?

    >>ACA doesn't keep costs down, it shifts costs to younger people. The typically poorer bunch.

    I disagree. Not much point going over it, I suppose. Maybe we can agree that it will be a long time before the effects can be assessed effectively.

    >>If you don't comprise and try to swing a big dick every time you speak, you aren't gonna make friends. Clinton made friends and he got alot of **** done. That's the difference.

    You see it as Obama's fault; I think the Republicans are the ones that won't cut deals. And it's a shame cuz I figure the votes are there to get some important stuff done. I like Boehner, but I'm disappointed with his performance. I think he needs to lead the House, and could do that if he stopped allowing a relatively small group of Tea Partiers to control the process.

    Obama is sort of "reserved," not a back-slapper. But it would be tough to compete with Clinton on that. I can see that both Reagan and Clinton, and Bush43 as well, had that going for them — they were very likeable. But we're talking about the country's business here. I'm confident that Boehner could get things done. I'm really saddened that he hasn't.

    >>ACA won't promote jobs. Rather there has always been a shortage of Doctors and Nurses in the industry. What you will find is less and less Doctors taking hits in Government insurance and go completely private. Thus creating bigger shortages similar to those in the VA which did practice Death Panels.

    I'm thinking we should scrap the VHA and turn it over to the private sector. I grew up on a naval air station, and I can't believe what's been going on. Well, maybe I can believe it, but we can't tolerate it.

    I think the "pre-existing condition" of 40 million or whatever it was uninsured was a big problem, both for the uninsured and for society. I figure it was a major driver of healthcare costs. To be honest, Id be willing to say goodbye to the insurance companies and their 15-20% administrative costs. The office workers could be employed in a single-payer system and the overpaid executives could just fend for themselves as far as I'm concerned.

    I figure the biggest thing we need to do to control healthcare costs is come up with a way to stop people from destroying themselves with obesity, lack of exercise, and drugs like alcohol and tobacco. That would free up a lot of doctors to work on other problems. Other than public education, I don't have an idea of how to get that done. I'm hopeful that some of the elements of Obamacare will help, like preventative care benefits.

    >>This is wrong. Minimum wage was raised in 2009. It was the last step of 2007 law. What has changed is inflation rates.

    Yeah, I wasn't at all sure about that and was just too lazy to look it up. I guess I was thinking of more or less when the bill was passed, but of course it's always phased in.

    >>Climate changes all the time … what doesn't change is stupidity of people who build homes on …

    Another issue we won't agree on and probably not worth debating. I'm convinced that we need to do a lot more and soon. I think the damage will be substantial to say the least and affect everyone within a few decades. I've never been active at all on the environment except personally — recycling, limiting energy consumption. I think it's a disaster waiting to happen.
    Last edited by mmi; 05-15-14 at 07:58 AM.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    Government unions are pure evil. Ever met a cop or firefighter making $200,000 plus a year in retirement? I have.
    Yes, I have met some retired officers and firefighters, mostly through my work. I may even have asked some of them how much they earn in retirement income, but all the information I collect in an interview goes directly into a highly secure database without getting any attention from me except as strings of numbers and characters.

    In my experience, they generally come across as some of the finest people you could hope to meet. They're always nice t' me, something I value, since not everyone thinks highly of federal employees.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Ever meet a cop or a fireman in a union?

    >>Haven't been around unions much, have you? It is all about seniority, not quality.

    If you haven't been around them much, how do you know what they're about?
    Only spent 35 years in the private sector so no never spent much time around unions, LOL. Worked strike duty and had union members throwing bricks at vehicles and flicking cigarettes at loaded gasoline trucks, yes real classy people

    No police and firemen in my community are in unions. I supported FDR in his statement that there is no place for unions in the Public Sector. Wonder why such a liberal believed that?

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    mmi;1063279298]Yeah, I realize it. And it was called the Great Recession. Within two years, employment was down to 138 million. We've now regained nearly all those lost jobs. (The figure for April was 145.7 million, and it's been six-and-a-half years.) As I noted earlier, public-sector employment during this period has dropped by 600K.
    The recession ended in June 2009 and we are into June 2014. Compare the economic results today with those of Reagan's and get back to me. Due to the high inflation and unemployment then that recession was worse than this one. Reagan leadership and Obama's lack of leadership generated significantly different results. When the recession began in 81 there were 99 million working Americans, when Reagan ran for a second term that number was over 7 million more. By the end of the second Reagan Term we had 17 million more Americans working than when he took office.

    Too many people bought the rhetoric from the media as to how bad this recession was. Tell me, how did this recession affect you and your family?

    >>No population growth?

    I don't understand. Are you asking if there has been any?
    I am telling you that population growth occurred and the labor force didn't grow in relationship mostly due to discouraged workers. That is a sign of poor leadership and economic policies

    >>No significant labor force growth?

    The civilian labor force has expanded from 153.9 million in December 2007 to 155.4 million last month.
    Compare the labor force growth during the Reagan and I will continue to use Reagan as an example because the recession of 81-82 was worse than this one because if affected more people.


    >>Please name for me the economic policies that have made this economy better than it was when Obama took office or when the recession began?

    I would point to:

    • the continued implementation of TARP (I'd say Bush's decision to go with TARP kept us out of a depression)
    • the so-called "economic stimulus" tax cuts (especially for small businesses), public works projects, extended unemployment benefits
    • the 2010 tax cut package (extending Bush-era rates, cutting the payroll tax, cuts for capital improvements and increased R & D credits, raising the estate tax exemption, additional credits for college tuition and children)
    • the decision to rescue the automakers (saved millions of jobs)
    • the Wall Street reforms
    • the ACA, which will help control healthcare costs in the future
    The economic results don't agree with you and this list is being given credit for something that no one can quantify. QE has done more for Wall Street than any economic policies to help the American people. The rich have gotten richer and the poor poorer.

    What people want to ignore is that Bush took over an economy in recession, had 9/11, had a Democrat Congress from 2007-2009 and yet grew GDP 4.5 trillion dollars. The stimulus plan was a payoff to Obama economic supporters, ie unions. Tell me how much of a tax cut did you get?

    I think more could have been done, but, as I see it, Mr. Boehner is unwilling to turn his back on the fifty or so Tea Party members of his caucus and help enact legislation that could get, say, 170 Republican votes and 60 from Democrats.
    Again, you buy what you are told, how many House passed bills are sitting in Harry Reid's desk and not being debated? Reid is much more of a problem than the House.

    >>Do you think ACA promotes job growth?

    In the long run, I think the ACA will have a significantly positive impact of the economy in a variety of ways. I'd say a "healthier" (no pun intended) labour market is one of them.
    That is a pipe dream. We have a 17.3 trillion dollar debt and this adds to it thus the debt service is going up. How does a bill that costs this much and yet leaves 31 million people uninsured benefit the economy and American People?

    >>How about higher taxes and regulations?

    Which ones?
    Ask the people of W. Va. about regulations on Coal production. How could a Democrat state of W. Va. be so anti Obama now? How about the Keystone Pipeline? I could go on

    >>How about minimum wage increases?

    The federal minimum hasn't been raised since 2006.
    So what? Is the cost of living the same in each state? States can raise the minimum wage so why is this something the Federal Govt. should get involved in? You think it is the Federal Responsibility to tell a private sector business what to pay its worker? What investment does the Federal Govt. have in that business in terms of actual dollars?

    >>How about delays in the Keystone Pipeline? How about EPA regulations on coal?

    I think we need to do a lot more to control Climate Change. I think there are economic trade-offs involved.
    Why? Global Warming is a hoax

    >>I find it interesting how people here love to point out the proposed lies of GW Bush but ignore the lies and poor performance of Obama. Why is that?

    Fwiw, I don't think I've ever said, here or anywhere else, that Mr. Bush lied. How has Obama lied? Again fwiw, I don't think his job performance has been poor.
    What you show are examples of brainwashing. You don't think Obama has lied? Wow, you haven't been paying attention and are going to believe exactly what you want to believe. This is the most corrupt Administration and one of the least transparent in history. IRS, Benghazi, ACA, Economic predictions, again I could go on but you are only going to believe what you want to believe.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Only spent 35 years in the private sector so no never spent much time around unions, LOL. Worked strike duty and had union members throwing bricks at vehicles and flicking cigarettes at loaded gasoline trucks, yes real classy people

    No police and firemen in my community are in unions. I supported FDR in his statement that there is no place for unions in the Public Sector. Wonder why such a liberal believed that?
    I totally agree that we shouldn't have public sector unions.

    I am fairly neutral on unions otherwise. No union should be granted special powers by the state that it wouldn't have without legislation and couldn't get beyond simple group negotiations, however unions are one of the best tools that individual employees have when negotiating with a relatively much more powerful employer (more powerful than an individual employee).

    It's ashamed that unions were destroyed by corruption and thuggery.
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    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I totally agree that we shouldn't have public sector unions.

    I am fairly neutral on unions otherwise. No union should be granted special powers by the state that it wouldn't have without legislation and couldn't get beyond simple group negotiations, however unions are one of the best tools that individual employees have when negotiating with a relatively much more powerful employer (more powerful than an individual employee).

    It's ashamed that unions were destroyed by corruption and thuggery.
    Couldn't have said it better myself. Very good summation.

    Although I would have said at the end "It's a shame that unions were destroyed by corruption and thuggery".

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Yes, I have met some retired officers and firefighters, mostly through my work. I may even have asked some of them how much they earn in retirement income, but all the information I collect in an interview goes directly into a highly secure database without getting any attention from me except as strings of numbers and characters.

    In my experience, they generally come across as some of the finest people you could hope to meet. They're always nice t' me, something I value, since not everyone thinks highly of federal employees.
    And Iget that.. people think they do a noble profession. But Federal firefighters aren't what I am talking about or Federal police (Capitol police and so on). I still think their benefits are still a bit up there. But they aren't the worse offenders. I am talking about Police and Fire of local manner. Towns/Cities have gone bankrupt because of the retirement payouts because their unions wouldn't come to an agreement to lower benefits or increase pay in. You know cities like Stockton and Detroit (although they had bigger problems).
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I don't agree that those banks were "failed." If the ones you listed had indeed "failed," and I'm not at all clear on what that would have involved, I think we would have been in a lot of trouble. Finally, I don't think the money was "given" to the banks; as I understand it, it was "lent" to them. As of last month, the Treasury has shown a $32 billion profit on the TARP expenditures.
    Those banks by definition were insolvent. They had more liability then assets on their books. TARP was designed to give them money to remain solvent, basically they were considered "Too Big To Fail". So they got $200 billion in TARP money (which was "repaid") on top of that access to Fed money. The "repayment" came largely from Federal Reserve money which was given to them at lower interest rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Private-sector employment in Dec 2009 was 138 million. In April, it was 145.7 million. I think saying "we still don't have the number of jobs we did in 2007" is misleading. It could be argued instead that we've now gained back all the jobs we lost.
    It can't be argued. As the ARRA (Stimulus) became law in February 17, 2009. If you are arguing we got back to where we were.. you still would fail. In 2008 there was 137m jobs, in 2012, there was 131m. We are still short 6 million jobs.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    That $250K figure can be dismissed, I'd say. $90K is much more reasonable, but I'm not sure that takes into account all of the associated economic impacts, especially the tax revenues collected from people who got the jobs. That seems reasonable, since we're, in this context, talking about public expenditures to fund a jobs program. Accounting for those would yield a figure closer to $60K.
    If it takes $90k to create the job, it doesn't mean the wages was $90k but rather the Government spent $90k to create that job from stimulus. So there is no positive tax revenue for several years later. Assuming it's $60k job created and standard deductions (marriage, 1 child and such). You are typically looking $4,000 collected. That means it would tax 7.5 years to make up the $30k difference between the cost of creating the job and wage given for that job. It also means it would take 22.5 years to pay off $90,000 to create that job.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I'm sure you'd want to use a larger number. In the end, I'd say it's very difficult to calculate. One important feature of the ARRA may be that it gave people the idea that the government was doing something to alleviate the economic crisis at the time, much like some of the programs instituted by FDR. In a modern advanced industrial economy, it's important to keep up public confidence. Otherwise, things can really get out of hand.
    No, if I wanted to use that large number I would haven't said ranged between $90k to $250k. I would have flatly said $250k, so I am not being dishonest in this debate. So spend $800 billion plus interest for a confidence booster? That's horrible economic policy.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I would agree that the legislation could have been crafted more wisely. But it's easy to say that Obama should not have allowed the Congress to have as much control over the design of the bill, given that it required congressional support to even get to his desk.
    Congress didn't design the bill. It was the Tides Foundation who wrote the bill. Obama could have nixed the bill and sent it back and got what he wanted. He owned the House and the Senate at the time.


    [QUOTE=mmi;1063279569]The estimates I've seen are that the auto rescue saved around three million jobs, at a time when we sure couldn't afford to lose them. The agreement the administration negotiated included significant increases in fuel efficiency that strengthen the companies' competitiveness, have a positive impact on our balance of trade, and help the environment.[/qoute]

    It was 1.5 million.. And that time 2 of those companies GM and Chrysler close to bankrupt and had been for years. GM itself today is in the red again, they lost $5.2 billion (net income). It's had 20 recalls so far this year. So far this year those recalls have cost them $1.5 billion. Not to mention the lawsuits that are heading it's way. GM should have died in 2008/2009. To save it was reckless.

    Chrysler is now Fiat and Fiat would have likely bought the company anyways as Fiat needed a way to enter the American market. Something they've failed to do successfully in the past.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Yeah, I can't really argue with that. I might wanna call it a work in progress. We did collect some big fines and more are in the works as I understand it — something like $100 billion collected so far. Better than taxes, right?
    $100 billion on trillion of dollars of fraud by Banks and Insurance? Yeah, let's get pennies on the dollar and not force them out of business for criminal activity. Talk about moral hazard.


    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I disagree. Not much point going over it, I suppose. Maybe we can agree that it will be a long time before the effects can be assessed effectively.
    How can you disagree? The ACA is designed to force young healthy people buy insurance because they cost less to insurance then older people. It's about shifting the cost "equally".
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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    Re: Economy adds 192,000 jobs; unemployment rate holds steady at 6.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    You see it as Obama's fault; I think the Republicans are the ones that won't cut deals. And it's a shame cuz I figure the votes are there to get some important stuff done. I like Boehner, but I'm disappointed with his performance. I think he needs to lead the House, and could do that if he stopped allowing a relatively small group of Tea Partiers to control the process.
    No, I see it as a President who said he was above party politics when running in 2008 and that ended pretty quickly. He made enemies. He doesn't meet with congressional leaders or call them until he needs them. So he's not greasing the palms he needs or wants to talk to. That's horrible management skills. If I am a congressional member and the President never called or talked to me but beats on his bully pulpit everyday lambasting me, you think I am gonna vote or work with him? Hell, no, I am gonna make his life a living hell as he didn't say hey man that's a political show out there.. let's really nail this down in private.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Obama is sort of "reserved," not a back-slapper. But it would be tough to compete with Clinton on that. I can see that both Reagan and Clinton, and Bush43 as well, had that going for them — they were very likeable. But we're talking about the country's business here. I'm confident that Boehner could get things done. I'm really saddened that he hasn't.
    But that's Washington. You can't be the asshole who says my way or the highway. Nobody is gonna wanna work with you. Boehner job is to be opposition (an opposing view). Not to be a yes man.. Obama has 2009-2010 for that and his Democrat Congress pushed back on him a few times.


    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I'm thinking we should scrap the VHA and turn it over to the private sector. I grew up on a naval air station, and I can't believe what's been going on. Well, maybe I can believe it, but we can't tolerate it.
    US has to make a choice in what's important to them. VA is heavily underfunded but at the same time Congress and others wanted to expand VA's role to include all military personal that served. You have to cut something to increase the funding or increase tax rates to all.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I think the "pre-existing condition" of 40 million or whatever it was uninsured was a big problem, both for the uninsured and for society. I figure it was a major driver of healthcare costs. To be honest, Id be willing to say goodbye to the insurance companies and their 15-20% administrative costs. The office workers could be employed in a single-payer system and the overpaid executives could just fend for themselves as far as I'm concerned.
    The 40 million people don't have "pre-existing" conditions. There is only 1.5 million Americans who have a condition which is deemed not insurable or insurance costs too much. And you'll find nobody who will disagree with that part of ACA.

    I don't believe in Government provided insurance. As a military brat (not an attack) do you? You lived under Government provided health care, you see what's happen at the VA and yet you want to privatize that but think Health Insurance companies should go? That makes no sense.



    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    I figure the biggest thing we need to do to control healthcare costs is come up with a way to stop people from destroying themselves with obesity, lack of exercise, and drugs like alcohol and tobacco. That would free up a lot of doctors to work on other problems. Other than public education, I don't have an idea of how to get that done. I'm hopeful that some of the elements of Obamacare will help, like preventative care benefits.
    US health care costs come from the fact it's reactionary and not preventive and I would have supported a yearly check up funded program for all citizens. Couple that with no denial of coverage due to pre-existing condition and you have a pretty good law that almost all would have agreed with.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    Another issue we won't agree on and probably not worth debating. I'm convinced that we need to do a lot more and soon. I think the damage will be substantial to say the least and affect everyone within a few decades. I've never been active at all on the environment except personally — recycling, limiting energy consumption. I think it's a disaster waiting to happen.
    And the problem is you won't convince people to change their habits.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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