Concerns Russia will move into rest of Ukraine soon

EnigmaO01 · Mar 21, 2014

[h=1]Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon[/h] By CNN Chief Washington Correspondent Jake Tapper
(CNN) - Based on intelligence, Obama administration officials are very concerned the Russians are not being truthful when they say their forces near Ukraine's eastern and southern borders are merely there for training exercises, sources tell CNN.
Officials assess that Russia – as early as coming days – could use any number of pretexts to justify further military incursions into Ukraine.

Moscow could express a need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, or to protect transportation lines from Russia to Crimea, or the energy supply to Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Russian troops could accomplish this quickly, officials say, and theoretically before any other nation could even raise objections.
Officials publicly attribute their skepticism to previous Russian assurances that proved false, and privately say intelligence from the field has bolstered this view of Russia’s plans.
Asked for a candid assessment of White House worries about a possible incursion, a senior administration official told CNN, “We’re very concerned, but it’s by no means certain.”
Separately, National Security Adviser Susan Rice said Friday the Russians have said they intend to conduct military exercises.
“Obviously given their past practice, and the gap between what they have said and what they have done, we are watching it with skepticism," she said.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, on Thursday.
Shoigu provided “assurance that the troops he has arrayed along the border are there to conduct exercises only, that they had no intention of crossing the border into Ukraine, and that they would take no aggressive action,” according to a Pentagon read-out of the call.

First on CNN: Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon – The Lead with Jake Tapper - CNN.com Blogs

I believe this is a given. Thoughts?

Summerwind · Mar 21, 2014

Oh, noes! I see the Obama administration is taking another page out of the Bush playbook and hyping whatever it takes to demonize it's perceived enemy in order to justify it's garbage. Who knew? Oh, all of us that see him as essentially Bush-lite, and have since the beginning.

ecofarm · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
Oh, noes! I see the Obama administration is taking another page out of the Bush playbook and hyping whatever it takes to demonize it's perceived enemy in order to justify it's garbage. Who knew?

Isn't that what Putin just did?

Summerwind · Mar 21, 2014

Ray410 said:
If this is a big concern, why isn't the EU stepping up to the plate?

Yep, for once you and I agree. This is much more an EU concern, and where I can us following their requests for us to honor and install sanctions, asset freezing, etc., it does seem quite unacceptable for us to be taking the lead, particularly in such a strong and irrational way (ie not recognizing that just now even the Ukrainian government isn't what would be considered legitimate or democratically elected).

At least I think that's what you're saying.

Summerwind · Mar 21, 2014

ecofarm said:
Isn't that what Putin just did?

Putin allowed for a fast and apparently free election likety split. Let's see Ukraine do the same, oops, it hasn't and to my knowledge no date has been set.

Sorry, whether we like it or not, Putin has behaved more democratically in this one instance than we or "our" side has.

grip · Mar 21, 2014

EnigmaO01 said:
[h=1]Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon[/h] By CNN Chief Washington Correspondent Jake Tapper
(CNN) - Based on intelligence, Obama administration officials are very concerned the Russians are not being truthful when they say their forces near Ukraine's eastern and southern borders are merely there for training exercises, sources tell CNN.
Officials assess that Russia – as early as coming days – could use any number of pretexts to justify further military incursions into Ukraine.

Moscow could express a need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, or to protect transportation lines from Russia to Crimea, or the energy supply to Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Russian troops could accomplish this quickly, officials say, and theoretically before any other nation could even raise objections.
Officials publicly attribute their skepticism to previous Russian assurances that proved false, and privately say intelligence from the field has bolstered this view of Russia’s plans.
Asked for a candid assessment of White House worries about a possible incursion, a senior administration official told CNN, “We’re very concerned, but it’s by no means certain.”
Separately, National Security Adviser Susan Rice said Friday the Russians have said they intend to conduct military exercises.
“Obviously given their past practice, and the gap between what they have said and what they have done, we are watching it with skepticism," she said.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, on Thursday.
Shoigu provided “assurance that the troops he has arrayed along the border are there to conduct exercises only, that they had no intention of crossing the border into Ukraine, and that they would take no aggressive action,” according to a Pentagon read-out of the call.

First on CNN: Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon – The Lead with Jake Tapper - CNN.com Blogs

I believe this is a given. Thoughts?

No, I don't think this will happen for two reasons. The Russians don't want to be financially responsible for the entirety of the Ukraine. And two, they're starting to see the ability of the West to hurt them substantially on an economic level.

Putin seems to be taking stock of international and market reaction to his invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the crisis has a surreal quality. Meeting reporters today at his suburban Moscow residence, Putin denied the presence of any Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil or that Moscow had played any role in prepping the thousands of uniformed gunmen who have methodically taken over Crimea. The markets, which had given Russia a beating yesterday, reacted favorably: Russia’s Micex stock index rebounded and the ruble strengthened. Putin claimed they were responding not to the Ukraine news but to actions by the US Federal Reserve.

All in all, the impression is that Putin is—at least temporarily—taken aback, either by Western actions to isolate him, or by the market slide, or both. In one of his more bizarre outbursts, he lashed out at the US and the West for embracing what he called anti-Semites in Kiev who had shot an unarmed engineer dead and burned another alive. “I think they sit there across the pond in the US, sometimes it seems … they feel like they’re in a lab and they’re running all sorts of experiments on rats without understanding consequences of what they’re doing,” Putin said.

Putin has hit the “pause” button on his invasion of Ukraine – Quartz

MMC · Mar 21, 2014

EnigmaO01 said:
[h=1]Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon[/h] By CNN Chief Washington Correspondent Jake Tapper
(CNN) - Based on intelligence, Obama administration officials are very concerned the Russians are not being truthful when they say their forces near Ukraine's eastern and southern borders are merely there for training exercises, sources tell CNN.
Officials assess that Russia – as early as coming days – could use any number of pretexts to justify further military incursions into Ukraine.

Moscow could express a need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, or to protect transportation lines from Russia to Crimea, or the energy supply to Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Russian troops could accomplish this quickly, officials say, and theoretically before any other nation could even raise objections.
Officials publicly attribute their skepticism to previous Russian assurances that proved false, and privately say intelligence from the field has bolstered this view of Russia’s plans.
Asked for a candid assessment of White House worries about a possible incursion, a senior administration official told CNN, “We’re very concerned, but it’s by no means certain.”
Separately, National Security Adviser Susan Rice said Friday the Russians have said they intend to conduct military exercises.
“Obviously given their past practice, and the gap between what they have said and what they have done, we are watching it with skepticism," she said.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, on Thursday.
Shoigu provided “assurance that the troops he has arrayed along the border are there to conduct exercises only, that they had no intention of crossing the border into Ukraine, and that they would take no aggressive action,” according to a Pentagon read-out of the call.

First on CNN: Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon – The Lead with Jake Tapper - CNN.com Blogs

I believe this is a given. Thoughts?

Heya Enigma. :2wave: Do you think The Ukraine and their Signing of the Political Association Group with the EU.....might be more of a Deterrent for Russia to try and take the Ukraine now?

ecofarm · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
Putin allowed for a fast and apparently free election likety split. Let's see Ukraine do the same, oops, it hasn't and to my knowledge no date has been set.

Sorry, whether we like it or not, Putin has behaved more democratically in this one instance than we or "our" side has.

So one-sided.

Konig · Mar 21, 2014

This won't happen. Putin knew he could get away with slicing Crimea away from the Ukrainian cake. Russia has no interest in taking over Ukraines. Their intent in Crimea was simple: strategic interests and the interests of ethnic Russians. Putin wouldn't want to risk energy income from Europe (which is what would happen if he moved eastward in Ukraine) - the threat of cutting off energy supplies is Putin's only power-play here, but it would hit Russia big time as 50% of Gazprom's revenue comes solely from Europe.

Rogue Valley · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
Putin allowed for a fast and apparently free election likety split. Let's see Ukraine do the same, oops, it hasn't and to my knowledge no date has been set.

It's been well publicized since Yanukovych fell (fled is more apropos) that Ukrainian elections will be held on 25 May 2014.

MaggieD · Mar 21, 2014

EnigmaO01 said:
Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon

By CNN Chief Washington Correspondent Jake Tapper
(CNN) - Based on intelligence, Obama administration officials are very concerned the Russians are not being truthful when they say their forces near Ukraine's eastern and southern borders are merely there for training exercises, sources tell CNN.
Officials assess that Russia – as early as coming days – could use any number of pretexts to justify further military incursions into Ukraine.

Moscow could express a need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, or to protect transportation lines from Russia to Crimea, or the energy supply to Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Russian troops could accomplish this quickly, officials say, and theoretically before any other nation could even raise objections.
Officials publicly attribute their skepticism to previous Russian assurances that proved false, and privately say intelligence from the field has bolstered this view of Russia’s plans.
Asked for a candid assessment of White House worries about a possible incursion, a senior administration official told CNN, “We’re very concerned, but it’s by no means certain.”
Separately, National Security Adviser Susan Rice said Friday the Russians have said they intend to conduct military exercises.
“Obviously given their past practice, and the gap between what they have said and what they have done, we are watching it with skepticism," she said.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, on Thursday.
Shoigu provided “assurance that the troops he has arrayed along the border are there to conduct exercises only, that they had no intention of crossing the border into Ukraine, and that they would take no aggressive action,” according to a Pentagon read-out of the call.

First on CNN: Intelligence from field has White House 'very concerned' about Russia invading more of Ukraine – possibly soon – The Lead with Jake Tapper - CNN.com Blogs

I believe this is a given. Thoughts?

The only thought I have is that a full diplomatic press ought to be put on Russia to allow the people to vote and have the UN supervise it. This is in their backyard. To completely alienate a superpower over this seems very unwise to me. So stop the threats and look for a compromise.

MMC · Mar 21, 2014

grip said:
No, I don't think this will happen for two reasons. The Russians don't want to be financially responsible for the entirety of the Ukraine. And two, they're starting to see the ability of the West to hurt them substantially on an economic level.

Heya Grip. :2wave: Yeah I think the Credit Agencies hurt them more than he thought. Although on a side note Those Credit Agencies can do this to just about any country. Causing them to take a hit and more than most think as well.

Still he has made some moves to scale back tensions after getting what he wanted. Already they are looking at recouping monetary losses with the Ukraine.

Putin: No Need for Further Retaliation Against US

Putin formally gets Crimea; Ukraine, EU sign deal......

Russia is expected to play a major role in the planned withdrawal of U.S. and other NATO forces from Afghanistan later this year by providing transit corridors via its territory, and Putin seemed to indicate that the Kremlin at this stage has no intentions of shutting the route.

Moscow also appeared to be warming to the deployment of monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the top trans-Atlantic security and rights group.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia would welcome sending the OSCE observers to Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine on condition that their number and locations are clearly set, but he made it clear that they wouldn't be let into Crimea.

Amid its political crisis, Ukraine is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, struggling to pay off billions of dollars in debts in the coming months. The U.S. and the European Union have pledged to quickly offer a bailout.

It owes Russia $2 billion in overdue payments for natural gas supplies. Putin made it clear that Russia will further raise the heat on Ukraine by urging it to pay back a $3 billion bailout loan granted to Yanukovych in December.

In addition, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev suggested that Russia should reclaim $11 billion in gas rebates it gave Ukraine in exchange for a deal extending Russia's lease on its navy base in Crimea until 2042. Medvedev argued that since Crimea is part of Russia now, the deal is void......snip~

Breaking News

http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/188855-prize-sanctions-aginst-russia-5.html

grip · Mar 21, 2014

MMC said:
Heya Grip. :2wave: Yeah I think the Credit Agencies hurt them more than he thought. Although on a side note Those Credit Agencies can do this to just about any country. Causing them to take a hit and more than most think as well.

Still he has made some moves to scale back tensions after getting what he wanted. Already they are looking at recouping monetary losses with the Ukraine.

Putin: No Need for Further Retaliation Against US

Putin formally gets Crimea; Ukraine, EU sign deal......

Russia is expected to play a major role in the planned withdrawal of U.S. and other NATO forces from Afghanistan later this year by providing transit corridors via its territory, and Putin seemed to indicate that the Kremlin at this stage has no intentions of shutting the route.

Moscow also appeared to be warming to the deployment of monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the top trans-Atlantic security and rights group.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia would welcome sending the OSCE observers to Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine on condition that their number and locations are clearly set, but he made it clear that they wouldn't be let into Crimea.

Amid its political crisis, Ukraine is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, struggling to pay off billions of dollars in debts in the coming months. The U.S. and the European Union have pledged to quickly offer a bailout.

It owes Russia $2 billion in overdue payments for natural gas supplies. Putin made it clear that Russia will further raise the heat on Ukraine by urging it to pay back a $3 billion bailout loan granted to Yanukovych in December.

In addition, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev suggested that Russia should reclaim $11 billion in gas rebates it gave Ukraine in exchange for a deal extending Russia's lease on its navy base in Crimea until 2042. Medvedev argued that since Crimea is part of Russia now, the deal is void......snip~

Breaking News

http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/188855-prize-sanctions-aginst-russia-5.html

It's all a 'tit for tat', geopolitical strategy for resources that's been coming for awhile. Putin is not some madman that'll risk annihilation over a small annexation of a former province. The only thing that gets dicey is when they push a little too far or get into personal, ego bashing. I suspect Russia will start to dial this down now, since they've gotten, realistically, all they're going too.

MMC · Mar 21, 2014

grip said:
It's all a 'tit for tat', geopolitical strategy for resources that's been coming for awhile. Putin is not some madman that'll risk annihilation over a small annexation of a former province. The only thing that gets dicey is when they push a little too far or get into personal, ego bashing. I suspect Russia will start to dial this down now, since they've gotten, realistically, all they're going too.

Yeah Putin has said so.....but it seems there is always one from the Kremlin reminding us they might or might not go by what Putin says. Moreover the Russians will now finish up with the Southern pipeline, create some jobs and get that going.

Although Putin has not said he would scale back any Sanctions with EU at the time I had put that up.

WillyPete · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
Putin allowed for a fast and apparently free election likety split. Let's see Ukraine do the same, oops, it hasn't and to my knowledge no date has been set.

Sorry, whether we like it or not, Putin has behaved more democratically in this one instance than we or "our" side has.

There are certainly signs the Crimea election was heavily rigged.

The big one is that there was no option to maintain the status quo. It was either "go over to the Russians," or "let the Crimean assembly decide to go over to the Russians." <Link>

Claims of 95+% Yes vote on a 80% turnout seem unlikely, at best. With numbers like that, you'd expect the whole of Ukraine would be chomping at the bit to go to the Russians.

There are reports of intimidation of opposition journalists, and military units hanging out near polling places.

I'd say there was a bit more than pure democracy in play, here.

grip · Mar 21, 2014

MMC said:
Yeah Putin has said so.....but it seems there is always one from the Kremlin reminding us they might or might not go by what Putin says. Moreover the Russians will now finish up with the Southern pipeline, create some jobs and get that going.

Although Putin has not said he would scale back any Sanctions with EU at the time I had put that up.

Oh yeah, it's not over yet and could still have all kinds of unseen repercussions.

Summerwind · Mar 21, 2014

WillyPete said:
There are certainly signs the Crimea election was heavily rigged.

The big one is that there was no option to maintain the status quo. It was either "go over to the Russians," or "let the Crimean assembly decide to go over to the Russians." <Link>

Claims of 95+% Yes vote on a 80% turnout seem unlikely, at best. With numbers like that, you'd expect the whole of Ukraine would be chomping at the bit to go to the Russians.

There are reports of intimidation of opposition journalists, and military units hanging out near polling places.

I'd say there was a bit more than pure democracy in play, here.

That's not accurate to what I'm reading. The second option does give the Crimean assembly the OPTION some day to work with Russia, but according to the article it is on it's face an option to be essentially autonomous entity INSIDE Ukraine. Since Ukraine isn't really a "known" entity at the moment, it makes sense to word it that way, to me. How can you ask a citizenry to make a definitive choice about an unknown, but to be autonomous within a unknown that you hope will work out, that seems legit. Then if Ukraine turns out as some hope it will, then the Crimean parliament could re-unionize with Ukraine, or if it ends up an extreme right wing can of nuts, they can either remain autonomous or join Russia. In the end, no one forced anyone to choose numero uno, and a strong majority did. Spin it as you like, I guess. To me it seems kind of like,... there's a coup on the US, Mexico fearing for it's citizens in Texas, decide to invade Texas in a bloodless invasion (although unlike Crimea, there are no forces already there). Then the President of Mexico sets a referendum offering Texas to become part of Mexico or the become an autonomous country within US, hmmm, I hear Texas kind of wants to do that, don't they? Apparently Crimeans didn't.

WillyPete · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
That's not accurate to what I'm reading. The second option does give the Crimean assembly the OPTION some day to work with Russia, but according to the article it is on it's face an option to be essentially autonomous entity INSIDE Ukraine. Since Ukraine isn't really a "known" entity at the moment, it makes sense to word it that way, to me.

I'd be happy to read through any links you'd care to provide. My knowledge is far from complete.

The pro-Russian positioning of the Ukrainian assembly was well known in advance of the election. As a practical matter, the second option amounts to a whitewash, to provide false legitimacy for people who are looking to rationalize the event.

To me it seems kind of like,... there's a coup on the US, Mexico fearing for it's citizens in Texas, decide to invade Texas in a bloodless invasion (although unlike Crimea, there are no forces already there). Then the President of Mexico sets a referendum offering Texas to become part of Mexico or the become an autonomous country within US...

I think the better analogy is how we took Texas away from Mexico, first by infiltrating it with settlers under false pretenses, demanding they hand it over, and finally by ginning up a confrontation and taking it by force of arms.

MildSteel · Mar 21, 2014

Summerwind said:
Oh, noes! I see the Obama administration is taking another page out of the Bush playbook and hyping whatever it takes to demonize it's perceived enemy in order to justify it's garbage. Who knew? Oh, all of us that see him as essentially Bush-lite, and have since the beginning.

Yep, that about sums that up.

Demon of Light · Mar 22, 2014

I think they may be acting more wary than reasonable because Crimea took some people by surprise. While a move into eastern Ukraine is possible, this would need a stronger pretext than that asserted in Crimea. There would have to be greater international recognition of a problem in need of solving and one where a resolution between the camps may not be plausible. Basically, Ukraine would have to be in a state of civil war or at least see an intense armed resistance.

US Conservative · Mar 22, 2014

Summerwind said:
Putin allowed for a fast and apparently free election likety split. Let's see Ukraine do the same, oops, it hasn't and to my knowledge no date has been set.

Sorry, whether we like it or not, Putin has behaved more democratically in this one instance than we or "our" side has.

Putin is lucky to have you, isn't he?

Linc · Mar 22, 2014

US Conservative said:
Putin is lucky to have you, isn't he?

And Putin is certainly lucky to have you righties second-guessing Obama. Both you squishy lefties and disloyal righties should sign up for Ron Paul .

US Conservative · Mar 22, 2014

NIMBY said:
And Putin is certainly lucky to have you righties second-guessing Obama. Both you squishy lefties and disloyal righties should sign up for Ron Paul .

Disloyal? Lol, hey buddy what now?

MildSteel · Mar 23, 2014

LOL

Well there might be something to worry about. It appears that a very attractive damsel in distress is awaiting Putin to come and rescue her people. I don't know, if it were me, I might jump on that!!!!

Nato alarm as woman minister urges Putin to invade her country: Military commander speaks of concerns over threat from breakaway region near Moldovan border | Mail Online

The glamorous foreign minister of a breakaway region of Moldova is calling on Vladimir Putin to make her country his next conquest in eastern Europe.

Few may have heard of Transdniestria, the unofficial and fictitious-sounding statelet whose head of international relations is 36-year-old Nina Shtanski.

However, senior Western figures are alarmed that following the annexation of Crimea it is step two in a Kremlin masterplan to redraw the frontiers of Europe.

This top diplomat in staunchly pro-Russian Transdniestria, who has a penchant for revealing black dresses, is gushing in her praise of Putin's takeover of the Black Sea peninsula.

She openly invites him to make the same move in her landlocked territory of 509,000 people, wedged between strife-torn Ukraine and Moldova.

'We are pleased to say that the outcome of the Crimean referendum almost fully coincides with the results of the Transdniestrian referendum of 17 September 2006, when over 97 per cent of voters chose independence and the prospect of voluntary unification with Russia,' she said in a statement.

'The obvious match of the will expressed by people in Crimea and Transdniestria demonstrates that the Russian World is uniting and the people's wish for unity cannot be stopped.'

DANG!!!! I'm a Putin fan now!!!! He better go on and jump on that!!! WOW!!!!

MadLib · Mar 24, 2014

Summerwind said:
That's not accurate to what I'm reading. The second option does give the Crimean assembly the OPTION some day to work with Russia, but according to the article it is on it's face an option to be essentially autonomous entity INSIDE Ukraine. Since Ukraine isn't really a "known" entity at the moment, it makes sense to word it that way, to me. How can you ask a citizenry to make a definitive choice about an unknown, but to be autonomous within a unknown that you hope will work out, that seems legit. Then if Ukraine turns out as some hope it will, then the Crimean parliament could re-unionize with Ukraine, or if it ends up an extreme right wing can of nuts, they can either remain autonomous or join Russia.

Only a bogus vote would have no option to keep the status quo. In any case, it's not Russia's business to determine whether a part of Ukraine will remain autonomous within Ukraine.

To me it seems kind of like,... there's a coup on the US, Mexico fearing for it's citizens in Texas, decide to invade Texas in a bloodless invasion (although unlike Crimea, there are no forces already there). Then the President of Mexico sets a referendum offering Texas to become part of Mexico or the become an autonomous country within US, hmmm, I hear Texas kind of wants to do that, don't they? Apparently Crimeans didn't.

Which wold still be completely unjustified. We developed the concept of territorial integrity for this exact reason - so that countries can't support breakaway factions within other countries for trumped-up nationalist bull**** as was just done in Crimea.

Concerns Russia will move into rest of Ukraine soon

Hot Flash Mama

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