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Thread: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    Why not? He works a deal with the Crimea PM. Putin gathers his military forces still while Sochi is going on. As soon as it's done, Crimea cries to mother russia for help. Putin, ready to go, sends his troops in. He knows he has two trump cards to hold the US at bay and maybe even knows that the US won't do anything. He walks in to Crimea, puts a noose around the country, a gun in their back and says to his new buddies --- you're going to vote to secede from Ukraine and be honest (while they push the gun in their backs) and vote with your best interest at heart.

    What way do you think they'd vote with Russian military all over the place?

    If you want evidence you go look for it. I'm just telling you how I see it happening - my job isn't to "sell" you on my views... you make up your own mind.
    Hold on. Don't get all mad and stuff. I'm really trying to understand what you are saying. I don't doubt that Russia already had some sort of contingency plans in place in case they needed to protect their base at Sevastopol. But it appeared to me that you are suggesting that Putin deliberately worked with the US on Iran and Syria knowing full well that the US would make a move in Ukraine and that he would then take advantage of the situation. I don't see how he could have anticipated these events so far in advance. The stuff in Syria was way back in the summer before things in the Ukraine came to a head. If however, he was that far ahead of the game then damn, he is very smart.

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    Obama's not making a hard move.
    The hard move was orchestrating the fall of Yanukovych after he rejected the EU offer.

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    Hold on. Don't get all mad and stuff. I'm really trying to understand what you are saying. I don't doubt that Russia already had some sort of contingency plans in place in case they needed to protect their base at Sevastopol. But it appeared to me that you are suggesting that Putin deliberately worked with the US on Iran and Syria knowing full well that the US would make a move in Ukraine and that he would then take advantage of the situation. I don't see how he could have anticipated these events so far in advance. The stuff in Syria was way back in the summer before things in the Ukraine came to a head. If however, he was that far ahead of the game then damn, he is very smart.
    No I'm not mad, I'm just not going to try and convince you my view is the right view. It maybe that they didn't know that far in advance but it makes sense. Look how quickly Putin got troops into Crimea - without Russian patches or identification. That takes a little while to plan out and execute, as well as assemble and get everyone ready. I don't think he planned the end (Crimea) before the Syria and Iran issues dropped in his lap but I wouldn't think it would take too long after for him to figure out how to use both Syria and Iran to his advantage and hold it over the US. Then he looked for something he wanted and Crimea / Ukraine was right on his doorstep. Warm water port, work out a deal, secede then annex. This would be a good test to see if there is any solid move against him - his pretext was "Russian's in Crimea need protecting" and oldie but still good excuse.

    Once he knew Russia had the lead with Syria and Iran everything just came together.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    No I'm not mad, I'm just not going to try and convince you my view is the right view. It maybe that they didn't know that far in advance but it makes sense. Look how quickly Putin got troops into Crimea - without Russian patches or identification. That takes a little while to plan out and execute, as well as assemble and get everyone ready. I don't think he planned the end (Crimea) before the Syria and Iran issues dropped in his lap but I wouldn't think it would take too long after for him to figure out how to use both Syria and Iran to his advantage and hold it over the US. Then he looked for something he wanted and Crimea / Ukraine was right on his doorstep. Warm water port, work out a deal, secede then annex. This would be a good test to see if there is any solid move against him - his pretext was "Russian's in Crimea need protecting" and oldie but still good excuse.

    Once he knew Russia had the lead with Syria and Iran everything just came together.
    I really don't think Putin would have made this move if the government of Yanukovych HAD NOT fell. But if you are saying that once he saw how things were panning out then he started thinking about how Syria and Iran could be used to his advantage, then yes I would agree with that. But I don't think it became clear where things where going until December at the earliest. And again, the Russians have probably planned what they would do in case they needed to secure Crimea years ago.

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    I really don't think Putin would have made this move if the government of Yanukovych HAD NOT fell. But if you are saying that once he saw how things were panning out then he started thinking about how Syria and Iran could be used to his advantage, then yes I would agree with that. But I don't think it became clear where things where going until December at the earliest. And again, the Russians have probably planned what they would do in case they needed to secure Crimea years ago.
    Quite possible. I didn't work out the Yanukovych portion and yes, it may have been more difficult with Yanukovych still there but even if he was, and lets just say for the sake of the discussion his government didn't fall. How much pressure from the Russian bear would it take to undermine him or have him removed if they really wanted it? It would have delayed things possibly - maybe the leverage with Iran and Syria would not have been as good -- the risk of a Russian failure may have risen, but Putin is so full of himself he may still have done it anyway, just later.

    Hard to say - too many variables to see that one clearly.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    No, what is to be feared is dangerous distorted propaganda that is created to compensate for strategic blunders. The US made big strategic blunder in the Ukraine and it is trying to compensate for it by demonizing Putin. It's not good.
    Which blunder would that be?
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    I'm sick of the calls for the USA to run with its tail between its legs to talk of WWIII.

    Putin understands the USA is in the coward's mode, so can act as if Russia does not fear war with the USA, while the USA is terrified of war with Russia.

    When did the USA become such cowards? We pricked with Russia and they pricked with us the entire Cold War and Russia was vastly more powerful and influential then.

    The escalation Russia threatens otherwise in diplomatic matters is real, but it is an escalation that we match it we win it. We hold most the cards, not Russia.
    Really? So tell us when during the cold war we engaged Russian troops in Eastern Europe? You are dreaming, the USSR jerked us around far more than Putin. Remember the Berlin blockade when they forced us to airlift all the supplys for West Berlin? Why do you think we were such wimps then? Why didn't we just come marching thru East Berlin like you think we should in the Ukraine?

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    First of all, I agree on the paranoia and fearing mongering stuff. I think you are also correct that WWIII is unlikely as a DIRECT result of this. However, if tensions are not allowed to ease, this could be the trigger that results in the two sides implementing highly adversarial foreign policy that further deteriorates trust and increases paranoia and false apprehension with regards to intent. Thus the favorable conditions that lead finally to war would be created.
    Without question I do believe this to be the case. If Ukraine plunges into a civil war in the near-term I can see both sides intervening as "peacekeepers" in their respective spheres of influence and essentially locking in a Solomon solution. At that point it moves into the active phase of building two competing power camps and more direct efforts to obstruct each side's advances.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    We hardly 'engineered' the fall of Yanukovych. People are willing to go down extraordinarily deep rabbit holes on the basis of a single leaked phone call. We did however seek to exploit a developing situation as best we could and put ourselves on the best possible footing. But we did not 'dismantle' the Yanukovych government--his opposition did that for him. His own actions and palpable weakness in the face of the street movement caused the desertion of political alliances which were only ever tenuous and self-interested.
    America has had its fingers in the Ukrainian pie since the collapse. The name of the game in these countries for America has always been to identify the dissidents, who exist in every country, and then devote as many resources as possible to help them fundraise, organize, and campaign. I don't doubt for a moment that there are people being moved into these organizations as soon as possible who are either CIA operatives or CIA assets to manage perceptions and monitors loyalties. Outside of the covert agency power you have proxies in private NGOs and business using their networks and connections to aid in these causes. Such groups inevitably are looping in the Agency as is the case with the Shell corporation parallel state in Nigeria. His actions are another interesting question. There has been an odd frequency to see glimmers of peaceful shifts away from conflict in Ukraine suddenly ending as snipers end up shooting at both sides for no apparent reason. Perhaps Russia would engage in such false flag actions, though it seems the U.S. had more to gain. After all, what happened in Kiev on February 20th assured Yanukovich's downfall.
    Secondly of course it would do that, it is the ideal. Our goal is to limit Russian power and box in a dangerous autocracy. Why do you think we extended NATO protections to the Baltics and engaged in MAP talks with Georgia? This isn't about equity, it's about winning which is something that Moscow unfortunately understands.
    You make the U.S. seem so noble. Except, an aggressive foreign policy towards Russia begin in the midst of the collapse. That makes it seem less like what you say and more like a power/resource grab, which is ultimately what it is more like. As the Soviet Union collapsed we set up a banking unit through a spook bank that was essentially just about letting Russian officials and future oligarchs empty state coffers overseas into a slush fund for later use. Many of those same mafia-linked oligarchs then moved in to take over Russian industry flush with cash and made various powerful Western financiers their silent partners. Russia's crackdown on oligarchs, portrayed in Western media as a politically-motivated consolidation of power, was more directly understood as their effort to expunge a cancer of foreign corruption introduced by the proxies of Western industry and replace it with good old-fashioned domestic corruption subservient to Mother Russia. Putin's victory over the robber barons of Russia was about restoring the authority of the Russian nation over its own borders. His aggressive efforts to stamp out the Islamist insurgencies in the North Caucasus, which were also a product of covert Western machinations, was the culmination of Putin's efforts at restoring national unity. Since then he has sought to re-assert Russian authority overseas because while he was focused on the internal consolidation of power, the U.S. had pressed its gains right up to Russia's doorstep.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    In the past 5 years or so, Obama and the State Department have gone out of their way to try and "reset" the American relationship with Medvedev and later with Putin himself. In the past 18 months or so, the US has had two specific international incidents in which the WH felt America needs to be involved. First, the Syrian civil war on the pretext that Syria was using chemical weapons on their own people and the various video reports of dying women and children from what was thought to have been Sarin Gas. US intervention wasn't welcomed and Russia has had an interest in keeping Syria intact. Russia took the lead on negotiations backed by the US. Next we had the escalation with Iran and their alleged nuclear weapons program. Russian ties to Iran are fairly well known, and the US and Israel have a stake at not letting Iran create nuclear weapons as they already have a delivery system with their Safir rocket. Russia again was the lead mediator with Iran on talks.. Then we get Ukraine and Crimea occurring right after (or during the Sochi Olympics). The WH was caught flat footed, with no real answer to a move by Russia to intercede in Crimea. The reset was over, and now Syria and Iran are held in the balance while Putin does what he wants to do. I can only conclude Putin dangled two things he knew the WH wanted (Syria and Iran) then sends forces to Crimea and now is using both of those situations to their advantage. The reset was a ruse. Now the US and Russia are disagreeing on how to move forward with Syria, and the Iran negotiations are now being used as a pressure point with the US. It's clear the US was rope-a-doped by Russia and this was planned out well before any troops were moved onto the border of Ukraine.
    That is rather silly. He was not plotting some action in Ukraine before there was even a reason to plot some action in Ukraine. I do imagine he was hoping that making his involvement crucial in various issues important to the U.S. would give him some cover in the event of incidents such as this one. No doubt Russian planners have also spent years developing contingency plans depending on various outcomes in Ukraine.
    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Leaving nukes out of it, that would be a short war. The US alone would destroy Russias conventional military. Although Russia could form an axis with Islamic countries and China. Without China, World vs Russian Axis would be one sided. Hopefully we would not actually try to invade russia, just pummel them into retreat.
    The war will be over by Christmas!!!
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
    - Khalil Gibran

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    A likely future conflict area is Kazakhstan. It is a massive collection of natural resources on Russia's Southern border worth trillions to Russia. Uzbekistan also likely of very high conquest interests of Russia.
    Kazakhastan is part of the Eurasian Economic Community and Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia isn't gonna touch Kazakhstan. Their relationship is just as close as Russia and Belrus is. So fear monger elsewhere.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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    Re: US, Russia exchange threats at tense UN meeting

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Leaving nukes out of it, that would be a short war. The US alone would destroy Russias conventional military. Although Russia could form an axis with Islamic countries and China. Without China, World vs Russian Axis would be one sided. Hopefully we would not actually try to invade russia, just pummel them into retreat.
    Although President Obama has stated there will be no US military intervention in Russia, please share with us how we would destroy the conventional Russian military forces, and where this would take place. Interested readers want to know. Let's remember, we have not fought a modern military force equal, or near to being equal since World War 2, and the last few have given us incredible problems against what some would consider rag-tag 2nd and 3rd rate armies. Please indulge us.

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